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Saturday, May 26, 2012
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
2012 Q1 Review - January through March
1Q 2012 was one of my best forecasting quarters ever with a stunning 11 out of 12 weeks 'mostly right' so that's over 91%. Read the summaries for yourself and see; most weeks also frequently right on levels, market character and daily direction.
Highlights include: first week pop to 1284H, 1/13 key low, up to 1/25, then down to 1/30L on SPX 20MA; up from there to 2/9H, pullback 1340 exact, then big up to 3/13+; and most recently 3/26 high down to 3/30 low, then up. Yes, all this was written out in advance of it happening in each weekly view! If you think this is too good to be true, I will simply say that this is the result of many years of hard work and a forecasting technique that has been honed by the acid test that is the market.
If you are a trader or investor then having a weekly preview with a very high probability of being correct is of obvious benefit.
*
All text that says 'sent' was over the weekend for Monday's report (or Tuesday in the case of holiday).
Sent 1/2: "SPX charts lean positive... if higher then upper daily BB and ABCD 76 up near 1281-85 should do it. New Year's buying may lift market some Tuesday and parts of Wednesday but viewing these days as either way. Preferring down overall for the week especially Thursday and probably Friday. Will shift bullish if big gap up Tuesday and above 12/27H for key high near 1281-85."
Result: 1/3H at 1284 and then sideways. Week turned out positive but shifting bullish easy to do. Mostly right.
Sent 1/7: Monthly, weekly and daily SPX charts are all bullish yet nearing resistance zone from 1292-1315 (values will be a bit higher as bars open). Basically looking for an early high then drop and maybe sharp into low on Friday."
Result: Highs at 1296, down into Friday for key low. Got it.
Sent 1/16: "All SPX charts are bullish; market heading into OE week and as of Friday's cash close just 11 points from 1300 level. Likely that this will trade then watching for reaction from there; ideal high up near 1310 ABCD 100 target and top of daily BB." And: "Moderate bullish but also expecting periods of slower action. Expecting up overall on Tuesday though probably quiet range day; Wednesday some check of low likely but afternoon improves; probably higher Thursday but maybe slow for session; Friday mostly quiet."
Result: Nailed it.
Sent: 1/21: "Bulls have the ball and everything points higher; however, SPX approaching RSI overbought, near daily BB resistance and a major weekly ABCD pattern at 1325. Therefore, preferred scenario is a little higher - watching how daily BB and 1325 react, ideally they are about the same; then pullback or consolidation." And: "Monday expecting higher though session looks mixed, Tuesday may open higher but session should be mostly down, Wednesday up?, Thursday probably down, Friday can open lower, stabilize for session then probably recover in afternoon."
Result: Close high 1/25 at 1326, slightly higher 1/26 at 1333, then mild pullback & consolidation. Nailed it.
Sent 1/29: "Logical move is pullback to daily support, then probably another move up towards highs. Ideally the drop is to SPX 20MA which is currently 1295 but will be higher on Monday and still higher on Tuesday even if market drops. Due to slope it should bounce on first hit. If market up on Monday or Tuesday then that is even more bullish with overbought condition worked off by sideways move; this would suggest substantial new highs into next key high date." And: "Monday and Tuesday officially either way but preferred scenario is more of a pullback to daily chart support and/or deeper support level on hourly. For example SPX 1305 would be close to hourly ES 1301; then SPX 20MA might be nearby as well. A little biased towards Monday down overall then Tuesday up. Wednesday also mixed signals but would like to see key low here, then higher. Thursday and Friday expecting up."
Result: Nailed it with pullback to 20MA on 1/30, sideways Tuesday, then up from there.
Sent 2/4: "All charts are in strong uptrends with daily SPX closing outside its BB. This condition doesn't usually last long, so even if higher probably at a slower pace. Most likely is some consolidation before another push up, but I don't think 2/3 was the final high. Weekly chart looks like it is going for last year's high near 1370-76. A clear rejection back below 1333 and then break of SPX 20MA would get me thinking bearish again, but for now bulls in charge and think market can go higher." And: "Moderately bullish and expect higher for the week especially into key high date near 2/9."
Result: Up into 2/9 exactly as called.
Sent 2/12: "SPX monthly and weekly charts look like they can and should go higher before a final top. It would also be nice to see divergences on RSI on the daily chart when this does happen. That said daily chart looks vulnerable to a bit more pullback than just Friday, and think markets ripe to test the daily 20MA at least and possibly lower. If 20MA breaks then watch the Fibs listed above: 1317 / 1306 / 1295. Best case for bulls would be another period of sideways consolidation to work off the overbought condition; and/or a test of SPX 1333 area (prior high) and healthy response."
Result: Market held up in bullish sideways consolidation scenario. Good enough here.
Sent 2/20: "Bullish with divergence means ideal scenario is tag of SPX 1370-76 then some drop. Ultimately the monthly and weekly charts look like they can go higher, but 2011H and near upper BBs on daily & weekly are an ideal spot for some pullback or longer consolidation in next 2 weeks. As long as market continues to make higher highs - along with improving economic data - and put-call not too low, then dips will continue to be bought and market will continue higher especially into March." And: "After Tuesday 'upside' should be more limited and ideal scenario is a tag of 2011H then pullback. If some bad news breaks then shakeout is possible. Anything higher than SPX 1376 is very bullish and points to all the 1400+ targets listed above, but think there is a better chance of this happening in March."
Result: Up Tuesday 2/21 to 1367 (3 points from 1370) then sideways. Check!
Sent 2/25: "Upside 'should be' more limited for at least some of this week but that doesn't necessarily mean down. Monday could open higher due to Sunday 7T, then session either way. Tuesday preferring down but not high confidence and watching clues; Wednesday more easily lower, Thursday probably back up for first of the month, Friday also expecting higher especially in NDX."
Result: Mostly sideways, 'upside limited but not necessarily down' apt description; Wednesday delivered down and Thursday up. Check.
Sent 3/3: Main question for SPX is whether next move is 1400 or 1340-50; I think better chances of 1400... That said, a profit taking pullback is possible and if Monday starts and closes lower this move will be on. Likely down to 1360 area minimum and chance 1340 but that level (ie lower daily BB on SPX and 38% from 2 lows back) should be bought big.
Result: Monday down and closed lower, result was move to 1340 which was bought! Although started with 'better chance of 1400' shifting bearish per down Monday then looking to buy 1340 was spot on!
Sent 3/10: Bulls delivered on the bounce, now market needs to put in a convincing higher high... To be clear I really prefer higher highs here. Monday down then up but overall direction either way; Tuesday should deliver higher and this day and into early Wednesday best chance for move up; Wednesday may open higher but signals mixed for session; Thursday either way, Friday preferring some up.
Result: Nailed it.
Sent 3/17: "Expecting some choppy pullback Monday through Wednesday, back up Thursday and best chance for pop up, Friday may start higher but ripe for a fade. So some low Tuesday or chance Wednesday, then Thursday-Friday key high."
Result: Choppy pullback which extended into Thursday-Friday. Not quite!
Sent 3/24: "Monday either way overall (3/26 listed as key high), Tuesday down and maybe big, Wednesday either way, Thursday down, Friday back up. For stock swing trades short Monday into Tuesday and possibly Thursday look like best moves; then buying Thursday into following week also possible."
Result: Short Monday into Thursday, then buying Thursday 3/29 into 4/2 were both spot on. Check!
Highlights include: first week pop to 1284H, 1/13 key low, up to 1/25, then down to 1/30L on SPX 20MA; up from there to 2/9H, pullback 1340 exact, then big up to 3/13+; and most recently 3/26 high down to 3/30 low, then up. Yes, all this was written out in advance of it happening in each weekly view! If you think this is too good to be true, I will simply say that this is the result of many years of hard work and a forecasting technique that has been honed by the acid test that is the market.
If you are a trader or investor then having a weekly preview with a very high probability of being correct is of obvious benefit.
*
All text that says 'sent' was over the weekend for Monday's report (or Tuesday in the case of holiday).
Result: 1/3H at 1284 and then sideways. Week turned out positive but shifting bullish easy to do. Mostly right.
Sent 1/7: Monthly, weekly and daily SPX charts are all bullish yet nearing resistance zone from 1292-1315 (values will be a bit higher as bars open). Basically looking for an early high then drop and maybe sharp into low on Friday."
Result: Highs at 1296, down into Friday for key low. Got it.
Sent 1/16: "All SPX charts are bullish; market heading into OE week and as of Friday's cash close just 11 points from 1300 level. Likely that this will trade then watching for reaction from there; ideal high up near 1310 ABCD 100 target and top of daily BB." And: "Moderate bullish but also expecting periods of slower action. Expecting up overall on Tuesday though probably quiet range day; Wednesday some check of low likely but afternoon improves; probably higher Thursday but maybe slow for session; Friday mostly quiet."
Result: Nailed it.
Sent: 1/21: "Bulls have the ball and everything points higher; however, SPX approaching RSI overbought, near daily BB resistance and a major weekly ABCD pattern at 1325. Therefore, preferred scenario is a little higher - watching how daily BB and 1325 react, ideally they are about the same; then pullback or consolidation." And: "Monday expecting higher though session looks mixed, Tuesday may open higher but session should be mostly down, Wednesday up?, Thursday probably down, Friday can open lower, stabilize for session then probably recover in afternoon."
Result: Close high 1/25 at 1326, slightly higher 1/26 at 1333, then mild pullback & consolidation. Nailed it.
Sent 1/29: "Logical move is pullback to daily support, then probably another move up towards highs. Ideally the drop is to SPX 20MA which is currently 1295 but will be higher on Monday and still higher on Tuesday even if market drops. Due to slope it should bounce on first hit. If market up on Monday or Tuesday then that is even more bullish with overbought condition worked off by sideways move; this would suggest substantial new highs into next key high date." And: "Monday and Tuesday officially either way but preferred scenario is more of a pullback to daily chart support and/or deeper support level on hourly. For example SPX 1305 would be close to hourly ES 1301; then SPX 20MA might be nearby as well. A little biased towards Monday down overall then Tuesday up. Wednesday also mixed signals but would like to see key low here, then higher. Thursday and Friday expecting up."
Result: Nailed it with pullback to 20MA on 1/30, sideways Tuesday, then up from there.
Sent 2/4: "All charts are in strong uptrends with daily SPX closing outside its BB. This condition doesn't usually last long, so even if higher probably at a slower pace. Most likely is some consolidation before another push up, but I don't think 2/3 was the final high. Weekly chart looks like it is going for last year's high near 1370-76. A clear rejection back below 1333 and then break of SPX 20MA would get me thinking bearish again, but for now bulls in charge and think market can go higher." And: "Moderately bullish and expect higher for the week especially into key high date near 2/9."
Result: Up into 2/9 exactly as called.
Sent 2/12: "SPX monthly and weekly charts look like they can and should go higher before a final top. It would also be nice to see divergences on RSI on the daily chart when this does happen. That said daily chart looks vulnerable to a bit more pullback than just Friday, and think markets ripe to test the daily 20MA at least and possibly lower. If 20MA breaks then watch the Fibs listed above: 1317 / 1306 / 1295. Best case for bulls would be another period of sideways consolidation to work off the overbought condition; and/or a test of SPX 1333 area (prior high) and healthy response."
Result: Market held up in bullish sideways consolidation scenario. Good enough here.
Sent 2/20: "Bullish with divergence means ideal scenario is tag of SPX 1370-76 then some drop. Ultimately the monthly and weekly charts look like they can go higher, but 2011H and near upper BBs on daily & weekly are an ideal spot for some pullback or longer consolidation in next 2 weeks. As long as market continues to make higher highs - along with improving economic data - and put-call not too low, then dips will continue to be bought and market will continue higher especially into March." And: "After Tuesday 'upside' should be more limited and ideal scenario is a tag of 2011H then pullback. If some bad news breaks then shakeout is possible. Anything higher than SPX 1376 is very bullish and points to all the 1400+ targets listed above, but think there is a better chance of this happening in March."
Result: Up Tuesday 2/21 to 1367 (3 points from 1370) then sideways. Check!
Sent 2/25: "Upside 'should be' more limited for at least some of this week but that doesn't necessarily mean down. Monday could open higher due to Sunday 7T, then session either way. Tuesday preferring down but not high confidence and watching clues; Wednesday more easily lower, Thursday probably back up for first of the month, Friday also expecting higher especially in NDX."
Result: Mostly sideways, 'upside limited but not necessarily down' apt description; Wednesday delivered down and Thursday up. Check.
Sent 3/3: Main question for SPX is whether next move is 1400 or 1340-50; I think better chances of 1400... That said, a profit taking pullback is possible and if Monday starts and closes lower this move will be on. Likely down to 1360 area minimum and chance 1340 but that level (ie lower daily BB on SPX and 38% from 2 lows back) should be bought big.
Result: Monday down and closed lower, result was move to 1340 which was bought! Although started with 'better chance of 1400' shifting bearish per down Monday then looking to buy 1340 was spot on!
Sent 3/10: Bulls delivered on the bounce, now market needs to put in a convincing higher high... To be clear I really prefer higher highs here. Monday down then up but overall direction either way; Tuesday should deliver higher and this day and into early Wednesday best chance for move up; Wednesday may open higher but signals mixed for session; Thursday either way, Friday preferring some up.
Result: Nailed it.
Sent 3/17: "Expecting some choppy pullback Monday through Wednesday, back up Thursday and best chance for pop up, Friday may start higher but ripe for a fade. So some low Tuesday or chance Wednesday, then Thursday-Friday key high."
Result: Choppy pullback which extended into Thursday-Friday. Not quite!
Sent 3/24: "Monday either way overall (3/26 listed as key high), Tuesday down and maybe big, Wednesday either way, Thursday down, Friday back up. For stock swing trades short Monday into Tuesday and possibly Thursday look like best moves; then buying Thursday into following week also possible."
Result: Short Monday into Thursday, then buying Thursday 3/29 into 4/2 were both spot on. Check!
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
2011 Review - October through December
Of 12 weeks in Q3, 8 weeks mostly right, 2 weeks half right and just 2 weeks off.
Highlights include nailing the October low level (it was the weekly bollinger band); the drop week of 10/31 onto support which held as called; then after 20MA broke on 11/16 move down down to SPX 1158 all as called. Nailed early December high level and move down to 12/19L at 1200 area, then up into 12/27H exactly as written. Pretty good!
Result: Low of week came on Tuesday but still pretty good with key low (which turned out low of year) smack on lower weekly Bollinger band. Monday down, Tuesday lower then rebound as called... missed Wednesday and Thursday. I'm going to say half right since the weekly BB pegged the level of the low and Tuesday's forecast called for down then rebound.
Sent 10/9: "Upside 'should be' limited this week, but EU situation determines whether the bullish or bearish scenarios listed above play out. Pulling for up Monday but not highest confidence and Sunday globex easily lower; watching the clues for Tuesday's 7T but think more easily down; Wednesday probably starts lower but recovers mid-morning and could come back positive; Thursday probably down; Friday expecting weaker. Larger down pressure into Thursday could dominate the week."
Result: Week was stronger than expected although Monday up, Tuesday sideways, Wednesday up, Thursday weaker, Friday off.
Sent 10/16: "Monday could start higher due to globex, but session looks more range bound and either way overall. Tuesday also mixed, looking like some down then up move. Wednesday should drop, Thursday either way, Friday up? Mildly bullish overall but expecting moves both ways and watching upper BB for possible resistance." "Even if there is some consolidation due to weekly resistance at 1225 area (20MA), since NDX is already above its 61R think market will ultimately go higher."
Result: Some struggle near 1225 but ultimately higher. Good enough.
Sent 10/23: "Everything is bullish and and looks like market should go higher. Basically above 1222 area (50R Fib and weekly 20MA) should mean up to next level at 1257-66...." More bullish scenario would be up to 1257-66 resistance before any move down - Monday either way, Tuesday perhaps up, Wednesday check low but higher, Thursday up, Friday still probably back down."
Result: Up to 1256, pullback, then check of low Wednesday then up, Thursday blast off, Friday sideways. Good enough!
Sent 10/30: "Expecting some pullback or tight range at best Monday-Tuesday; then up on Wednesday, Thursday either way and may have clues, Friday expecting up. Bottom line is mostly bullish..."
Result: Half right. Down Monday-Tuesday, back up Wednesday but missed Friday. Pullback larger than I thought but chart section had 'very strong support at the 20MA' which held as low for the week.
Sent 11/6: "Preferring bullish and visit up to 1275-1285 area, but also think this will act as resistance. Expecting up Monday but could start from lower level due to negative before open; Tuesday also pulling for up but 5A drags down; Wednesday should be up, Thursday either way, Friday mixed."
Result: Pretty much it; up to 1277 which got smacked.
Sent 11/13: "If Monday down and 20MA breaks as support for 2nd time market should visit 50MA currently 1200..." "Monday mixed signals, Tuesday also mixed; Wednesday could open lower but session expecting up; then some larger down pressure Thursday and Friday that will limit upside. If market up so far then could hang near 1275 or max high 1300 for strike. If already down and clearly bearish below 200MA at 1272, then could drop further."
Result: 20MA broke as support on 11/15 and then continued lower to 50MA which arrived on Friday.
Sent 11/20: "Bearish but daily support likely to bounce from key support at the 50MA, but if that goes next move down to 1158 and then bounce likely from there."
Result: 50MA broke but key low at 1158 and next move bounce as called.
Sent 11/27: "Expecting lower into 12/1-2. Monday probably down, Tuesday expecting lower, Wednesday either way but larger down pressure into Thursday 12/1, Friday either way. Monday could easily gap down, Monday also looks weak overnight into session Tuesday; again overnight Thursday into Friday session also probably lower. Really not expecting bullish scenario but if somehow 1158 holds then better chances for bounce will be Tuesday, Wednesday and chance Friday session."
Result - Cannot count this week as right since 1158 held and bullish version played out.
Sent 12/4: "Looking for 12/5-6H of some kind, then mostly down." "Gapping up above 1261-65 would be significantly more bullish for the end of the year, but at this point I'd be surprised to see that happen. I think next move is down to 1222 at least and maybe 1210 area SPX."
Result: High arrived 12/7 instead, but key resistance held on close basis and next move was down below 1222. Good enough.
Sent 12/11: "Bearish scenario is down Monday-Tuesday, lower early Wednesday, then recovery into Thursday, Friday back down. If Sunday globex and Monday session positive, then more chance of breakout up into high on Thursday. If Sunday globex and Monday session down, then watch for chop between 76%s and continued congestion. I don't think markets will be back to plunging although trading theme is weaker Monday-Tuesday."
Result: Down Monday thought Wednesday, then some mild recovery. Good enough.
Sent 12/18: "Charts now mostly bearish, but decent chance of bounce and preferring up on the week overall. SPX weekly and daily charts are in downtrends, but 1200 area looks good for a bounce; if not then watching 1183-84." "Ideal scenario is key low 12/19-20, then up."
Result: 1200 area held on 12/19, then big up exactly as called.
Sent 12/22: "On track for move up to 12/27-28."
Result: 12/27H as expected.
Tuesday 3/20
All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimates for direction. Larger lines typically more important changes.
Monday 3/19
All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimates for direction. Larger lines typically more important changes.
Thursday 3/15
All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimates for direction. Larger lines typically more important changes.
Wednesday 3/14
All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimates for direction. Larger lines typically more important changes.
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