Friday 5/16

Trading
If taking gap fill trade then some points; certainly no longs triggered with high at 9:30. 10:00 news was negative, but any entry just after news likely chopped. 10:32 macd up right on spike up with 4H++, exactly when not to enter long. Taking short 10:36 3 points. Possible long at 11:37 with markets up from the 4T, scratch. If taking 2nd lunch long at 12:11 2-3 points. Midday very choppy on both sides; any position 1:00 - 2:00 likely taken out. If taking midday cue (markets over 1421 means return close to 1427) then long 2:44 with breakout of lunch box good to make up from previous stop out.

Call - "Another lift up into 10:22-30. Resumed up as early as 11:26 but more likely 11:44."
Result - Very spiky but top 10:30, then down. LOD 11:23-25, right on 4T change.

Call - "Again, if market clearly in uptrend watch the 3Ts. Lift into 2:18, and general positive (maybe strong) near 2:30. On bullish day, higher highs here. Possibly continuing up after 2:34. Key change (5T) positive after 3:04, but 3T negative and a few down hits will probably take market down at least some. Up again 3:44 into close."
Result - Top 2:21, then resumed up after 2:34 on the dot. Continued up in last hour.

Midday call sent with ES 1418 - "If 1421 is taken out to upside watch for price to come back near opening level of 1427."
Result - Close 1425.







* * * * * * *
Fast up into 10:12-30+, then up for grabs.

News: 8:30 Housing Starts; 10:00 Consumer Sentiment
Also: 12:00 Paulson talking

Trading
General notes: Price action has been less stable and more choppy, but more frequently making double bottoms and tops. Aggressive traders can enter on a reversal bar after these form.
For Friday watch for 50Rs both up and down, swings with 0 net result (ie price coming back to key opening level), head and shoulder patterns and equal time counts (note Thursday equal time counts on tops).
In any scenario, expecting up into 10:12-30. This can be good quick move.
Rest of day battle between larger 7T (expecting some negative) and the 5Ts (up). If financials are OK or even up, then 7T will not be strong down pressure and market can go higher in the afternoon.
If financials are down, then more likely some down or sideways after 10:12-30.
Preferred bullish scenario is strong up into 10:12, another lift up into 10:30, then losing steam but not significantly down; midday weak or slow, another surge up into 2:30 area. Last hour regular signals still up, but won't be surprised at OE play to drop market down and make easy $ on puts.
Bearish scenario would be morning down already with 7T, recovery up into 10:12, lower high 10:30, then heading down with LOD 3:13-19.

Movement
Overnight markets positive to about 3:15, then may weaken.
Closer to session open, watch for up anytime after 8:05 am.
Conditions for morning news quite positive and markets can easily gap up.

Either way on open. If gap up, possible 50% fill.
However, if markets clearly rising fast from 8:05, then best move up into 10:12.
Main cycle (5T) positive after 10:07. Whatever direction market takes here should last a while (1 - 3 hours).
In any scenario, up into 10:12 if at all possible (10:00 news may impact).
Another lift up into 10:22-30.
Watch the 3Ts which have extra impact during OE week; up after 10:43, possible down after 11:08.
Resumed up as early as 11:26 but more likely 11:44.

Top 12:26, then probably weaker due to 12:25 4T-?.
Again, if market clearly in uptrend watch the 3Ts.
Either way after 1:45.
Lift into 2:18, and general positive (maybe strong) near 2:30. On bullish day, higher highs here.
Possibly continuing up after 2:34.
Key change (5T) positive after 3:04, but 3T negative and a few down hits will probably take market down at least some.
Up again 3:44 into close.

Guess-pectations
LOD: First 40 minutes; key lows 10:48, 11:44, 12:54-1:08, 3:13-19*.
HOD: 2:30 area; key highs 10:12*, 10:30, 12:06+, close.
ps, I doubt we will get 2 consecutive HOD at close in OE week.

Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.

Charts & prices
SPX made higher high with bullish scenario playing out as called. Above 50R means next target 61R at 1454; should hit by early June and maybe sooner.

NDX already past 61 (!) and aiming for December highs, chart 2. As long as tech continues to lift, general market will follow.

Hourly ES just above resistance from prior high. In the bigger picture, up from 4/15L to 5/2H, 38R down, then back up usually means significantly higher highs and not just a double top. This can happen on Friday but doesn't absolutely have to. Next week choppy and probably quiet in front of holiday, but this market can go higher.

Support: 1409 (38R 5/9L to 5/15H, 1404 (50R), 1400 (61R & level), 1383 (5/9L).

Resistance: 1425 (5/15H), 1434 (ABCD target), 1441 (1/10H equivalent), 1445 (1/8H), 1450 (level), 1466 (2008 high).

Swing trading
Friday of OE week notorious for games.
Best guess for any game is to take market up higher than people think into 10:12-30 and again into 2:30, then drop it to make easy $ on cheap puts.
Alternative, especially with sentiment so widely bullish with very low P/C ratio, is fast move into 10:12, then sideways hanging around 1425 SPX (SPX strike on open, SPY strike on close).
Down on Monday.

Long term view
Bullish; expecting market up into early June.

Time EDT	Ts	3Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T-?				from 3:15 am
9:30 AM	6T-
9:30 AM	4Tm
9:30 AM	4TA+				from 8:05 am
9:34 AM			4H-
9:52 AM		3T-			to 10:12
10:01 AM			4H+
10:07 AM	5T+
10:12 AM			5A++	**
10:22 AM			4H++
10:30 AM			4H++
10:43 AM		3T+			to 11:08
10:48 AM			4H-
11:08 AM		3T-			to 11:44
11:26 AM	4T+
11:44 AM		3T+			to 12:14
12:06 PM			4H+
12:14 PM		3T+			to 12:45
12:15 PM			4H-
12:25 PM	4T-?
12:26 PM			4H+
12:45 PM		3T+			to 1:20
12:54 PM			4H-
1:08 PM			4H-
1:21 PM		3T+			to 2:11
1:45 PM	4Tm
2:18 PM			4H++	*
2:30 PM			6H+
2:31 PM		3T+			to 3:10
2:34 PM	4T+
2:36 PM			4H+
2:59 PM			4H-
3:04 PM	5T+
3:06 PM		3T-			to 3:16
3:13 PM			4H--	*
3:19 PM			4H-
3:43 PM			4H+
3:44 PM		3T+			to close

Thursday 5/15

Nailed it.

Trading
First 30 minutes exactly why I don't often trade before important 10:00 news, especially with warning of narrow range before 11:28. No reason to think short 10:11 since 10:00 news very positive and so far 5T up, 7T price level up and low right on key support. Possible long at 10:21 profitable if exiting at 50R of 2 day range, 0-2+ points. Next step looking for long for 7T, triggered at 11:55. Exit traders choice: 76R of 2 day range nailed first high for 6 points, intraday 138P got 2:20 high for 7 points; holding out for last hour highs up to 5 more for total gain 6-12 points. If out with first top at 12:30 area, buy in 2:00 with breakout of lunchtime box stopped out (-2), but in again 2:43 recovered and then some.

Call - "Preferred bullish scenario is mild down or sideways from open to 11:28, then rally all the way to 3:30."
Result - Slight delay on 7T action, but this was mostly it.

Call - "HOD: last hour. Last surge higher at 3:29.
Result - Last surge also just a bit late, but big pop 3:35+.

Options trade triggered long at 11:55 with 141 call about .80; holding to last hour anywhere from 1.25 to 1.60+ so that's 50-100%.






* * * * * * *

low or down early, but up after 11:30.

News: 8:30 Empire State Mfg, Claims; 9:00 Treasury Int'l Capital; 9:15 Industrial Production; 10:00 Philadelphia Fed; 10:30 Natural Gas; 1:00 Housing Index
Also: Ben talking 9:30 am.

Trading
General notes: Price action has been less stable and more choppy, but more frequently making double bottoms and tops. Aggressive traders can enter on a reversal bar after these form.
For Thursday watch for 50Rs both up and down, swings with 0 net result (ie price coming back to key opening level), head and shoulder patterns and equal time counts.
Chance of tight range with first 7T in play to 11:28.
Preferred bullish scenario is mild down or sideways from open to 11:28, then rally all the way to 3:30.
Bearish scenario is harder down on open to 11:28, down again midday; sideways after 2:24, then down hard after 3:23.

Movement
Overnight markets are positive to about 7:55 pm Wednesday, then less so.
Key change after 11:45 pm; possibly returning up.
Up into 5:30 am and maybe big on worldwide indexes.
General conditions for morning news are positive, and anything to stoke the bulls will give another gap up.
Strong up right into 9:20 am.

Key change (5T) to negative right on open. If gap up, fairly good chance of fill.
Drop into 9:38, but possible big bounce up into 9:40. This could easily be morning top, since mostly down after this passes.
Lift up into 10:32.
Additional up after 10:47 to 11:12, but larger cycle still negative to 11:28.
Key change (7T) at 11:28; major cycle turns positive and regular 4T does as well. Markets should rally and break out of any congested range.
Looking for up after 12:17 as well.

Expecting some up after 12:56.
Pop up into 1:26.
Up again after 1:45.
Key change (5T) at 2:24, expecting up. Price action may slow.
Drop into 3:17.
Down with main cycle after 3:23.
Last surge higher at 3:29.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 11:28; key lows 10:51, 12:19, 1:45?, 3:17, 3:50.
HOD: last hour; key highs 9:40?, 10:32*, 12:52, 2:24 (2nd choice HOD), 3:29.

Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.

Charts & prices
Daily SPX went up to test highs but couldn't get through. Still battling the big 50R level near 1416. Chart 1.

NDX made it up to 61R but then fell back, chart 2.

Hourly ES topped out at ABCD 100 on smaller timeframe, but larger trend is still up. Chart 3.

Support: 1407 (38R 5/9L to 5/14H, 1402 (50R and 5/14 gap), 1398 (61R), 1383 (5/9L), 1374-5 (50R 4/15L to 5/2H), 1370 (4/22L), 1362-3 (61R), 1348-50 (76R & level).

Resistance: ES 1417 (big 50R 10/07H to 3/08L0, 1421-24 (5/14H, 5/6H, 5/2H), 1434 (ABCD 123).

Swing trading
Thursday session starts down, but looking for positive afternoon.
Up into early Friday.
Despite Wednesday afternoon's big sell-off, looking for higher highs by Friday.
The less optimistic possibility is mostly sideways into Friday's strike with price near Thursday's open.

Long term view
Bullish; expecting market up into early June.

Time EDT	Ts	3Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7Tm				from 11:45 pm
9:30 AM	6Tm
9:30 AM	5T-?
9:38 AM			4H-
9:40 AM			4H++?
10:00 AM			4H+
10:32 AM			4H++
10:47 AM		3T+			to 11:12
10:51 AM			4H-
11:22 AM			4H+
11:28 AM	7T+
11:28 AM	4T+
11:48 AM		3T+			to 12:18
12:06 PM			4H+
12:17 PM	4T+
12:18 PM		3T+			to 12:49
12:19 PM			4H-
12:25 PM			4H+
12:49 PM		3T+			to 1:24
12:52 PM			4H+
12:56 PM	4T+?
1:25 PM		3T+			to 2:15
1:26 PM			4H++
1:45 PM	4T+
2:23 PM			4H+
2:24 PM	5T+?
2:35 PM		3T+			to 3:14
3:03 PM			4H-
3:17 PM			4H-
3:23 PM	4T-
3:29 PM			5H++
3:44 PM			4H+
3:50 PM		3T+			to close
4:02 PM			4H++

Wednesday 5/14

New highs, then back down to earth. After 2:05 key change all right, but strong move down.

Trading
If gap up looking for possible fill; if jumping on short then immediately taken out but reversing made it back. If short 10:57 no loss, but at that point gap up and no fill so bias towards bullish scenario and longs. If long 11:28 with price up from 11:11 4T then 0-2. Short at 12:32 easily passed with sideways range lunch and trend up; long 12:54 few points possible but if holding too long then scratch. 2:05 5T changed the scene; failed high, then very sharp drops into 3:01 4H--? and 3:21 4H--*. If looking long at 2:29 then stopped (-1 or -2), but reversing down 2:38 3-5+ points depending on exit.

Call - "The bullish scenario is up to about 10:00, then losing steam, up again after 10:38 with rally into midday; down into 12:33-38, higher lows within 1:07-2:05, then rally up after 2:05 into last hour."
Result - This was it until 2:05!

Call - "# Strong move either way into 3:01." Also note 4H--* at 3:21.
Result - At 2:55, market ripe for spike down (after failed lower high).



* * * * * * *
Strong down pressure into 11:50 and perhaps 12:38; better chance of up after 2:05.

News: 7:00 MBA Purchase Apps; 8:30 CPI; 10:30 Oil
Also: 8:35, 9:15 and 4:40 pm FOMC talks

Trading
General notes: Price action has been less stable and more choppy, but more frequently making double bottoms and tops. Aggressive traders can enter on a reversal bar after these form.
On Wednesday data and oil will set the tone; positive numbers or falling oil will encourage the bulls to drive the price up, but any serious threat of inflation will easily send indexes down.
The bullish scenario is up to about 10:00, then losing steam, up again after 10:38 with rally into midday; down into 12:33-38, higher lows within 1:07-2:05, then rally up after 2:05 into close hour.
The bearish scenario is down and maybe hard after 10:00 all the way to about 11:50, some recovery up; then down again after 12:09 into 12:33-38. Lift after 2:05, higher low 3:01, then either way in last hour.
Bias bearish today but data and/or oil needed as catalyst for stronger move.

Movement
Overnight markets are mixed.
Possibly stronger after 6:25 am (start of 7T+).
At risk for down into 7:50 am, especially with any negative catalyst.

Expecting up on open, but dip into 9:42.
Down pressure after 10:00, then stronger down after 10:13.
Additional cycle (4TA-) down after 10:33; if this moves lower as expected (probably depending on oil news), down likely to 12:38.
However, general improvement after 10:38 could give lift to the bulls.
Most likely scenario is continuing down at least to 11:49 area; the more inflation is a threat, the harder this will drop.
Either way on 4T after 11:11.
Up after 11:59.

Watch 12:09. Expecting that market continues down and if so, probably will form key low near 12:33-38. However, if markets noticeably tick up after 12:09 with 4TA, then move into 12:38 could go up instead.
Expecting down after 1:07, but not high confidence and has chance of turning up by end of the period.
Key change (5T) at 2:05; watch for rally.
Additional up after 2:39 to 3:14.
Expecting drop into 3:01.
Either way after 3:12; will have clues by midday.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 11:49-12:38; key lows 9:42, 10:28, 10:55, 12:33-38?, 3:01?, 3:27.
HOD: First 30 minutes; key highs 10:33, 12:06, 2:23, 3:12-14, 3:46.

Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.

Charts & prices
Daily SPX made a slightly higher high, then dropped. Still above the supporting uptrend line. Chart 1.

NDX continues to lead the market higher, chart 2.

Hourly ES in uptrend. After topping at 61R from 5/2H, fell back but found support at 50R of last swing. Chart 3.

Support: 1396 (5/13L & 50R), 1393 (61R), 1383 (5/9L), 1374-5 (50R 4/15L to 5/2H), 1370 (4/22L), 1362-3 (61R), 1348-50 (76R & level).

Resistance: 1408 (5/123, (61R 5/2H to 5/9L), 1414 (76R), 1422-24 (5/6H, 5/2H).

Swing trading
Tuesday recovered somewhat in afternoon to close about even, so again more chance of bullish scenario playing out.
"Most bullish scenario is low of week very early on Monday with big rally, so any weakness Tuesday or Wednesday still above Monday's low; then up and higher highs Thursday and high of week on Friday."
Sent in Tuesday's forecast: "More chance of bullish scenario playing out but for this to happen Tuesday needs to add to Monday's gains." (Tuesday made higher high.)

Long term view
Bullish; expecting market up into early June.
Next dip 5/13-14, then up.

Time EDT	Ts	3Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T+				from 6:25 am
9:30 AM	6T-
9:30 AM	5T+
9:42 AM			4H-
10:00 AM		3T-			to 10:20
10:13 AM	4T-			*
10:28 AM			4H-
10:33 AM	4TA-
10:33 AM			4H+
10:38 AM	6T+
10:41 AM			4H-
10:55 AM			4H-
11:11 AM	4Tm
11:16 AM		3T-			to 11:52
11:49 AM			6H-	*
11:52 AM		3T+			to 12:22
11:59 AM	4T+			*
12:06 PM			4H+
12:09 PM	4TA-?
12:22 PM		3T+			to 12:53
12:23 PM			4H+
12:33 PM			4H--?
12:38 PM			5A-?
12:53 PM		3T+			to 1:28
1:02 PM			4H-
1:07 PM	4T-?
1:16 PM			4H-
2:05 PM	5T+			*
2:23 PM			4H+
2:39 PM		3T+			to 3:14
2:43 PM			4H+
3:01 PM			4H--?
3:12 PM	4Tm
3:14 PM		3T-			to 3:24
3:21 PM			4H--	*
3:46 PM			4H+

Tuesday 5/13

Trading
If taking gap fill trade (why not with market right at key resistance and well off globex highs) then short at 9:35, 3-5 points. Possible long 10:25 (-1 or scratch), but better trade going with downtrend and short again (if not still holding) at 10:44. Spike down formed ID 76 and on key support, so out there gain of 3-5 points. Forecast prevented long at 11:15 and no hurry to buy before solid low in place anyway. Long 11:46 better if taking the lunch trade, gain 2+ points. If short 12:47 no loss. Long 2:21 0-4 points depending on exit. If short 3:17 no loss.

Call - "Dip into 9:46, then possible down after 10:04. Strong lift into 10:34, then down due to 4T- from 10:33.
General negative from 10:35 on that will help pull markets down. Drop into 10:59."
Result - 10:34 not too strong but was the bounce up at the time. Otherwise spot on and best trades of the day were catching the first 2 drops.

Call - " Morning slow and probably down, but rebound up in afternoon. LOD: 11:40-11:56."
Result - Morning down, afternoon up. Just slightly higher low at 11:39-40.

Midday call (sent 11:40) - " If 11:39 4T goes up, this could hold although may test with double bottom anytime 12:52 to 1:33. Seriously negative data on home prices will probably prevent higher highs. Still looking for rebound after 1:33 and especially after 2:11, but these will probably create retracement highs."
Result - LOD held; higher low 12:52-1:33, then up but first HOD held.

Options trade taking short near open good for about 1.10 to 1.50-60 so about 33%. Extended hold ES trade short near open and covering 11:45 latest 6-9 points.






* * * * * * *

Morning slow and probably down, but rebound up in afternoon.

News: 7:45 Store Sales; 8:30 Import Export, Retails Sales; 10:00 Inventories
Also: Ben talking 8:20 am; other FOMC talks 6:10 am, 9:15 am, 11:00 am, 1:00 pm, 1:30 pm (FOMC getting out there today)

Trading
General notes: Price action has been less stable and more choppy, but more frequently making double bottoms and tops. Aggressive traders can enter on a reversal bar after these form.
On Tuesday morning news will set the tone; positive data will help maintain Monday's gains but any weak numbers will help send indexes back down. Watch for failed highs, especially if there is any negative catalyst. The upside potential especially in afternoon is another strong day in tech.
The bullish scenario is mostly sideways morning with some up possible after open and especially into 10:34, then down; stronger up after 1:33 and again after 2:11 to about 3:18, drop into 3:31, big lift into 3:47 for HOD.
The bearish scenario is down winning out in the morning all the way to about 1:30, recovery up to about 3:17, then down again into 3:31.

Movement
Overnight markets are weakest just after close on Monday and into 6:05 pm.
Chance of up after 6:05 pm.
Probably weaker after 3:50 am Tuesday (start of 7T); watching tone from here on.

Chance of up on open.
Dip into 9:46, then possible down after 10:04.
Strong lift into 10:34, then down due to 4T- from 10:33.
General negative from 10:35 on that will help pull markets down.
Drop into 10:59.
Expecting down after 11:39.
Chance of up after 11:56, especially if tech strong; lift into 12:05.
Another chance of up after 12:26.
Most likely scenario sideways chop over lunch.

Down into 12:52.
Stronger up after 1:33.
Key move into 1:59, expecting down. May invert up especially if tech strong; if so afternoon rally looking even better.
Key change (5T) after 2:11; markets more positive and likely to either turn up or breakout of any limited range. If tech leads higher, market will go up.
Big lift up at 2:23.
Up after 2:43, possibly all the way to 3:18.
Either way on main cycle after 3:17 but most likely is drop into 3:31.
Up into 3:47.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 11:40-11:56; key lows 10:24, 12:52, 1:33 (2nd choice LOD), 1:59?, 3:31.
HOD: 3:47; key highs 10:34, 12:05, 2:23.

Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.

Charts & prices
Daily SPX decisively held both the last 4/4 high and the supporting up trendline, and moved back up to the key 50R level of 1416. Looking bullish, chart 1.

NDX right back at highs. So far holding 50R and heading for 61R, chart 2.

Hourly ES bounced to 50R of recent swing down from 5/2H to 5/9L, chart 3.

Support: 1397 (38R 5/9L to 5/12H0, 1395 (50R), 1391 (61R), 1383 (5/9L), 1374-5 (50R 4/15L to 5/2H), 1370 (4/22L), 1362-3 (61R), 1348-50 (76R & level).

Resistance: 1405 (5/12H, 1408 (61R 5/2H to 5/9L), 1422-24 (5/6H, 5/2H).

Swing trading
Up Monday as called. Tuesday signals remain mixed and most likely moving on data, but chances have increased for stronger rebound up in afternoon and higher close.
Still looking for dip on Wednesday, Thursday rebound up, Friday continuing up especially early in session.
More chance of bullish scenario playing out but for this to happen Tuesday needs to add to Monday's gains.
"Most bullish scenario is low of week very early on Monday with big rally, so any weakness Tuesday or Wednesday still above Monday's low; then up and higher highs Thursday and high of week on Friday."

Long term view
Bullish; expecting market up into early June.
Next dip 5/13-14, then up.

Time EDT	Ts	3Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T-?				from 4:20 am
9:30 AM	6Tm
9:30 AM	5Tm
9:46 AM			4H-?
10:04 AM		3T-			to 10:24
10:33 AM	4T-
10:34 AM			4H++	*
10:35 AM	6T-
10:45 AM			4H-
10:59 AM			4H-
11:20 AM		3T-			to 11:56
11:39 AM	4T-?
11:40 AM			4H-
11:56 AM		3T+			to 12:26
12:05 PM			4H+
12:26 PM		3T+			to 12:57
12:27 PM			4H+
12:52 PM			4H--
12:55 PM	4T-
12:57 PM		3T+			to 1:32
1:05 PM			4H-
1:20 PM			4H-
1:33 PM	4T+
1:59 PM			4H--?
2:11 PM	5T+			*
2:16 PM			6Hm
2:23 PM			4H++
2:43 PM		3T+			to 3:18
2:47 PM			4H+
3:17 PM	4Tm
3:18 PM		3T-			to 3:28
3:31 PM			4H--	*
3:47 PM			4H+

Monday 5/12

Nailed it.

Trading
No news at 10:00 so question when to jump in on Monday. Globex mostly sideways said no hurry and probably gap fill anyway. If long at 9:38 stopped (-2), but reversing down made it back. Better trade just to wait for gap to fill and indicators to turn up which they did strongly at 10:26, so gain of 5-10 points depending on exit. If short at 1:06 with macd down and lower low no loss, but again better trade just waiting for the buy at 1:52 or latest 2:14, gain 3-7 points. If short 3:11 stopped, but with oil down and bulls in charge not strongly triggered.

Option or longer duration ES trade - entry near 10:30 if held to recommended HOD window approx $1.50 to 2:00 (on 139 call) or 33% gain; 10-15 points ES.

Call - "On Monday looking for rally and maybe big; if market gets going 10-20 points possible even if no official news. Trading strategy is simple: jump on any rally. Retracements probably shallow (up, 38R down, back up) and ABCDs up hitting 100 or 123. However, major change at 2:47 will stop momentum cold."
Result - 18 point rally off lows. First intraday dip at 11:15 just 23R then up; next low 38R then up again. HOD 2:51 and while markets did not drop there was nothing higher.

Call - "Up after 10:02 / 10:11. Strong lift up into 10:35+. Expecting up after 12:28 with strong surge up into 12:55."
Result - 10:35 big bar up. 12:55 key high.

Midday call - "Ideal HOD 2:35 - 2:54."
Result - HOD 2:51, then 2 more tops but nothing higher.









* * * * * * *

Rally and maybe big to about 2:47+, then down.

News: None scheduled.
Also: FOMC Pres talking 4:15 am.

Trading
General notes: Price action has been less stable and more choppy, but more frequently making double bottoms and tops. Aggressive traders can enter on a reversal bar after these form.
On Monday looking for rally and maybe big; if market gets going 10-20 points possible even if no official news. Trading strategy is simple: jump on any rally. Retracements probably shallow (up, 38R down, back up) and ABCDs up hitting 100 or 123. However, major change at 2:47 will stop momentum cold and likely send markets down into close. Market will drop harder the more oil is still up.

Movement
Overnight markets positive, maybe strong.
Watch for acceleration up after 4:20 am with start of 7T+.

Either way on open.
Up after 10:02 / 10:11.
Strong lift up into 10:35+.
Momentum possibly slowing after 11:24, but chance of up after 11:34.
If markets clearly up after 11:34, then more likely up after 12:28 as well.
Mixed cycles in play after 11:59.

Expecting up after 12:28 with strong surge up into 12:55.
1:25 area mixed between general positive (6H+) and negative.
Down after 2:10, but watch for lift up after 2:35.
Down and maybe strong after 2:47.
Chance of a last surge up with 3T+ in play, but watch for any top and down into 3:35-44.

Guess-pectations
LOD: first 30 minutes; key lows 11:03, 1:09-25, 3:34-44*.
HOD: 2:47-2:54; key highs 10:35-39, 12:27, 12:55.

Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.

Charts & prices
SPX made it up to 50R from 10/07H to 3/08L, then halted. If bulls continue to take charge first high at 38R near 1380 will act as support. Chart 1.

Daily SPX on chart 2 showing the supporting uptrend line. Looks key turn at junction point on 5/13 which turns out to be 1 day from key low this week with regular forecast.

NDX has been leading the charge but again fell back last week. Holding 50R or 1950 area would be very bullish going forward.

Daily NDX in strong uptrend; even if it drops down into Wednesday, channel very likely intact. Chart 4.

Hourly ES fell through the supporting uptrend line, but even recent correction still just 38R from last key low on 4/15. If 1385 area holds and market heads back up, likely to make higher highs in coming weeks. 1375 area or 50R key support for the bulls. Chart 5.

Support: 1383 (5/9L, 5/1L), 1374-5 (50R 4/15L to 5/2H), 1370 (4/22L), 1362-3 (61R), 1348-50 (76R & level).

Resistance: 1398-1400 (38R 5/6H to 5/9L & level), 1403 (5/8H), 1408 (61R), 1422-24 (5/6H, 5/2H).

Swing trading
Pattern of week is up Monday and maybe strong, Tuesday mixed, Wednesday dropping down to form key low, Thursday rebound up, Friday up early.
Most bullish scenario is low of week very early on Monday with big rally, so any weakness Tuesday or Wednesday still above Monday's low; then up and higher highs Thursday and high of week on Friday.
Mixed scenario is rally Monday, then coming back down Tuesday and Wednesday to double bottom, then lift up Thursday and Friday.
Bearish scenario is high of week on Monday down to lower lows Wednesday, then rebound up to lower highs Thursday and Friday.
Prefer mixed scenario but as usual with watch price action and adjust for news. Bullish scenario could win if oil starts coming down.

Long term view
Bullish; expecting market up into early June.
Next dip 5/13-14, then up.

Time EDT	Ts	3Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T+/++				from 4:20 am
9:30 AM	6T+
9:30 AM	4Tm
9:34 AM		3T+?			to 10:08
9:50 AM			4H+?
10:02 AM	4T++
10:08 AM		3T-			to 10:28
10:28 AM		3T+			to 10:58
10:35 AM			4H++	*
10:39 AM			4H+
10:46 AM			4H+
10:49 AM			4H-
11:03 AM			4H-
11:24 AM		3T-			to 12:00
11:34 AM	4T+?
11:59 AM	4T-
12:00 PM		3T+			to 12:30
12:04 PM			4H+
12:27 PM			4H+
12:28 PM	4T+?
12:30 PM		3T++			to 1:01