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Call - "Bearish: Down from 2:10 am, first move lower or sideways waiting on news; then down on 10:00 7T change and down most of the morning, weaker after 11:09, acceleration down after 11:39 or 11:58; most bearish is clearly continuing lower after 12:18, sharp drop into 1:37, continuing lower into 2:06; then probably recovery after 2:16, then could be down again after 2:56 depending on tech."
Preferring bearish but 10:00 news is wildcard. If that is positive then another mixed/choppy day since 1:37 event will probably take down and 2:06 will at least limit range until that clears. If 10:00 news negative then sharper drop into 1:37/2:06.
Result - Down from 2:10 am and first move down, but 10:00 change more stable and up after 11:09; key low 2:06-08, recovery up after 2:16 and 'counter-trend' bounce after 2:56. 10:00 news more positive and relatively tight range after that.
Scenarios did not map today due to inversion on 5A event at 1:09, but 5T themes and especially top trading note of 76Rs caught key turns. HOD 76R from high, LOD and another key low close enough to 76R from Monday's low; also 138P down on 1:25L. See video for more.
Bullish: Up from 12:20 am, gap will probably fill in first 15 minutes, then up after 9:46 and higher for most of the morning (watch both the 3T+?s and 3T+s for better moves and 2H-s and 3T-s for dips), strong up after 10:52, continuing higher after 11:49; weaker after 12:55, either way after 1:42, then up again after 2:30 to close. I would like to see the bullish scenario play out today but question will be if rally gets going from 9:46 (if tech is strong then this will launch) but if not then watch after 10:52.
Top trading note - "The market tends to pick a direction and stay that way which increases the chance of LOD/HOD near open/close. Also watch for 76Rs and 138Ps."
Guessing-Game (for fun, not trading advice): LOD 9:44-9:46; HOD close.
Result - Gap down and 9:46 down but stable after 10:52, higher after 11:49, some hits (on spreadsheet) won out in 12:55 period, rally after 2:30 into close. LOD came later but HOD near close as called. LOD 138P within 1 point, HOD within .5 point of 76R on 2 day range. See video.
Bullish: Up from 3:55 am and/or 9:05 am; most bullish would be strong right out of the gate due to the 9:05/9:28 4TA, although if gap up market could also fill especially from 9:40-10:10, then turn higher and overall up into 10:56; momentum probably slows after that but either way after 11:19. Most bullish would be clearly up after 12:12 which points to higher highs at 2:13; if no action at 12:12 (lunch) then watch the move from 1:10; if 2:13H that will probably be HOD, down or sideways after 3:01.
Guessing-Game (for fun, not trading advice): LOD 9:33-10:10; HOD 2:13.
Result - Nailed it.
Top trading note - " On Friday watch for 50Rs, 100Ps and swings that end even (this especially means even from open or yesterday's close). Equal time counts can also be helpful."
Result - Open 1088.50, close 1091.50, within 3 points; also 10:00L to 12:35H = 2 hours 35 minutes; down to 3:00L = 2 hours 25 minutes, almost perfect!
Top trading note - " On Thursday ... again watch for failed highs (note failed highs last two trading days). After 12:22 the theme changes to 50Rs, 100Ps and swings with zero result (this often means sideways). Looks like slower action for much of the day unless both 4TA-5As in afternoon go down (see below)."
Result - Failed new high in NDX, SPX test of globex high then down; both 5As dropped for afternoon sell-off.
Neither scenario mapped out today, but 'failed high' per top trading note, HOD on 5T change and LOD on 7T change. See chart.
