J Pearl's QuickTrader

Wednesday 2/15

2012-02-15T16:43:00.000-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimates for direction. Larger lines typically more important changes. For example today LOD on red line in afternoon (red lines more often price peaks).

Tuesday 2/14

2012-02-15T16:42:00.000-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimates for direction. Larger lines typically more important changes. For example today mostly down pressure after change near 9:40 but counter-move after aqua line change near 10:15.

Monday 2/13

2012-02-13T15:26:00.000-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimates for direction. Larger lines typically more important changes. For example today first influence negative, after 11:30 area blue line higher lows and recovery.

Week of 2/6 review

2012-02-10T13:43:00.000-08:00

For the week, sent to clients on 2/4: "Moderately bullish and expect higher for the week especially into key high date near 2/9."

Nailed it!

Friday 2/10

2012-02-10T13:42:00.000-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimates for direction. Larger lines typically more important changes. For example today LOD successful retest after change near 2:55.

Thursday 2/9

2012-02-09T13:57:00.000-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimates for direction. Larger lines typically more important changes. For example LOD on one of the minor changes; nothing higher after afternoon change.

Wednesday 2/8

2012-02-08T17:55:00.001-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance. Larger lines typically more important changes. For example here first influence from before open negative, then improvement in afternoon.

Tuesday 2/7

2012-02-08T17:54:00.002-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance. Larger lines typically more important changes.

Monday 2/6

2012-02-08T17:54:00.000-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance with estimate of direction. Larger lines typically more important changes. For example here larger influence from before open (blue horizontal line) positive, then weaker on midday thicker green line change.

Friday 2/3

2012-02-08T17:52:00.000-08:00

All timing vertical lines sent to clients in advance (with estimate of direction). Larger lines typically more important changes. Today EE# which delivered up as expected.

Thursday 2/2

2012-02-08T17:51:00.000-08:00

All timing vertical lines sent to clients in advance (with estimate of direction). Larger lines typically more important changes. For example here first portion of day more negative, range bound for afternoon.

Wednesday 2/1

2012-02-08T17:49:00.000-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance. Larger lines typically more important changes. For example here first portion of day positive, down on key change (blue vertical & horizonal line).

Tuesday 1/31

2012-02-08T17:46:00.000-08:00

All timing changes sent to clients in advance. Larger lines typically more important changes.

Monday 1/30

2012-01-30T16:45:00.001-08:00

Morning down but rally into 11:14+ as called; afternoon stronger than expected.

Friday 1/27

2012-01-27T15:07:00.001-08:00

Daily view - "Morning can easily open lower depending on news, then watching 9:32 7T change. 4Ts either way, better chance of up after 10:41, probably weaker after 11:49; then watching for afternoon improvement anytime after 1:05, better chance of up on key 7T change at 1:27, then also after 2:40 into 3:47-close."

Result - Not bad!

For the week: ""Bulls have the ball and everything points higher; however, SPX approaching RSI overbought, near daily BB resistance and a major weekly ABCD pattern at 1325. Therefore, preferred scenario is a little higher - watching how daily BB and 1325 react, ideally they are about the same; then pullback or consolidation."

Result - 1/26 close high 1326, then pullback / consolidation. Check!

Thursday 1/26

2012-01-26T13:11:00.000-08:00

7T & 2:10 4T both down as called!

Wednesday 1/25

2012-01-25T13:47:00.000-08:00

Today's forecast advised clients to watch for 138 projections - here it is at the high on the hourly ES chart.

Tuesday 1/24

2012-01-24T15:27:00.000-08:00

Counter-trend from red to green today; 7T change turned out up.

Monday 1/23

2012-01-23T17:47:00.001-08:00

HOD on 7T change, counter-trend move from green to red; afternoon mostly in range.

Friday 1/20

2012-01-20T16:11:00.001-08:00

First 7T weaker, improvement on 7T change, dip at 3:20 all as called.

For the week: "Ideal high up near 1310 ABCD 100 target and top of daily BB... Moderate bullish but also expecting periods of slower action. Expecting up overall on Tuesday though probably quiet range day; Wednesday some check of low likely but afternoon improves; probably higher Thursday but maybe slow for session; Friday mostly quiet."

Pretty much nailed it.

Thursday 1/19

2012-01-19T13:45:00.001-08:00

HOD near 5A; a lot of slow action as expected.

Wednesday 1/18

2012-01-18T13:17:00.000-08:00

9:57 and 10:14 both up as called, midday 4TA-5A pesky inversion up but higher after 2:38 as expected.

Tuesday 1/17

2012-01-17T13:06:00.000-08:00

7T turned out down, LOD at 76% from Monday's low per trading theme.

Wednesday 1/11

2012-01-11T13:36:00.000-08:00

7T range bound as expected, mostly up from 11:13 5T.

Tuesday 1/10

2012-01-10T13:40:00.000-08:00

Gap up but 10:22 7T change weaker as called; key change near 1:03 5T, 2:41 4T down as expected.

Monday 1/9

2012-01-09T15:39:00.000-08:00

Key high near 5T change.

Friday 1/6

2012-01-06T13:23:00.000-08:00

First move down per expectations, afternoon 2x top high per trading theme.

For the week: "If higher then upper daily BB and ABCD 76 up near 1281-85 should do it."

Result was tag of SPX 1285 and nothing higher despite the good news on Friday. That said forecast preferred bearish so 1Q 2012 starts with 'half right.'

Thursday 1/5

2012-01-05T14:58:00.000-08:00

2x LOD per trading theme; key change on 10:42 5T, up after 12:50 4T as called midday.

Wednesday 1/4

2012-01-04T13:40:00.000-08:00

Inversion up for 5A, up after 12:04 as expected, just slow and sideways after 1:45 on 7T change.

Tuesday 1/3

2012-01-03T13:17:00.000-08:00

"Expecting down overall in the 7T for session, but first 4T probably up, 10:00 news is wildcard, preferring up after 10:20, then weaker as 11:31 4T, 12:32 4T and 1:31 5T all look down. Another wildcard news event at 2:00, either way after 2:32."

Result - First move up but otherwise weaker especially after 11:31; key turn at 1:31 5T but 61% resistance per afternoon 5T theme.

Wednesday 12/21

2011-12-21T13:48:00.000-08:00

Afternoon 7T up as called!

Tuesday 12/20

2011-12-20T13:42:00.001-08:00

Explosive move up most of day; 9:41 trended up, some pullback after 11:21, then higher; 5T change after 1:50 more range bound.

"If Tuesday can put some distance from that low think the call of 12/19-20L will stand..." Opened 22 points from low and then off to races.

Monday 12/19

2011-12-19T16:49:00.001-08:00

Down into 11:25 area as called; afternoon 7T change lower than expected.

Friday 12/16

2011-12-17T16:01:00.001-08:00

Down and then sideways on 7T change as called.

For the week: "Mildly preferring a bullish scenario with Monday either way (say up in globex but weak in session), Tuesday up?, Wednesday starts lower but improves in afternoon, Thursday up for key high, Friday probably weaker or if up not substantially higher. Bearish scenario is down Monday-Tuesday, lower early Wednesday, then recovery into Thursday, Friday back down."

Result - Down from the start so cannot count this week as 'mostly right' yet bearish scenario not bad, half right!

Thursday 12/15

2011-12-15T16:21:00.001-08:00

4TA-5A inverted down, 2x tops & bottoms in afternoon per 5T but stuck in range.

Wednesday 12/14

2011-12-14T16:02:00.001-08:00

More bearish scenario played out along with 5T themes first move check lows, turn near 11:05 trended up, some recovery per midday update but went back down.

Tuesday 12/13

2011-12-13T15:50:00.001-08:00

Down into 11:04 as called; plunge after FOMC with drop into 2:31, then continued lower below a 38% bounce.

Monday 12/12

2011-12-12T16:29:00.000-08:00

7T down as called, key highs at 38% bounces per trading theme; morning 5T trended lower, afternoon 5T in tight range but off last hour.

Friday 12/9

2011-12-09T13:25:00.001-08:00

Morning 5T delivered with rally theme, afternoon higher than expected with just slower action on 5T change instead of pullback. Final session HOD on 2x top per trading theme.

For the week: "Everything points to pullback, or test of high then down. Gapping up above 1261-65 would be significantly more bullish for the end of the year, but at this point I'd be surprised to see that happen."

"Looking for 12/5-6H of some kind, then mostly down. Markets may come back to test Friday's high somehow or form lower high, even chance of slightly higher highs near 1265. Price target for high has been met on Friday (1261) but time allows up to 12/6. If lower highs 12/5-6 then tradable correction lower is next move. If somehow up and higher highs, then still expecting some mild pullback / consolidation to follow.

Result was 12/7H just barely above 12/5-6 earlier highs, then 1 day plunge, next day rally, overall both pullback and consolidation. Think this week goes in the 'right' column!

Thursday 12/8

2011-12-08T13:37:00.000-08:00

Daily view off but midday: "Looks like we will see ES 1238 (Dec) which is a key Fib" then probably close near low.

Thursday 12/8

2011-12-08T13:23:00.000-08:00

Daily view off but midday: "Looks like we will see ES 1238 (Dec) which is a key Fib" then probably close near low.

Wednesday 12/7

2011-12-07T14:05:00.000-08:00

First 7T & 5T down, 10:50 big change with key low at 50% and HOD at 100P up per theme, down in 3:52 5T change.

Tuesday 12/6

2011-12-06T14:25:00.000-08:00

Inversion down into key low near 11:36 5A; afternoon better than expected as it seems 1:45 event was quite late, but 5T did form double top per theme and down from here.

Monday 12/5

2011-12-05T15:21:00.000-08:00

Key low on 10:06 6H, very key change near 1:17 7T which ran all the way to 3:18 4T change.

Friday 12/2

2011-12-02T13:16:00.000-08:00

Session high near 76% resistance at 1259.50; LOD near 138P down at 1244.

For the week - Totally off this week, did not see this monster rally coming. But shifting gears and looking for SPX 1261 top not too bad for plan B.

Thursday 12/1

2011-12-01T14:07:00.000-08:00

HOD 138P within 1 pt; LOD 76% support, 1:55H 76% resistance (see video). Range day mostly between 76R exactly as called. 11:40 4T+, 12:19 4T-, 12:48 4T+, 2:14 4T-, all as expected.

Wednesday 11/30

2011-11-30T14:31:00.000-08:00

First move up, weaker after 11:09, stuck sideways for a while but 2:45 7T kicked in for another blast higher.

Tuesday 11/29

2011-11-29T14:18:00.000-08:00

9:30 4T up, 11:02 5T key change, 11:57 and 12:51 down overall, 2:04 up, 3:35 down ALL as called!

Monday 11/28

2011-11-28T13:04:00.000-08:00

First move up but failed 61R top per morning 5T theme, weaker on 7T change, down in afternoon in 1:35 and especially 2:45 4T as called, back up after 3:47!

Friday 11/25

2011-11-25T10:13:00.000-08:00

HOD 76R on hourly and 138P intraday per trading theme.

Down in 11:13 and 12:01 4Ts as called.

For the week - Down into 11/21-22L as expected, but lower Wednesday. Friday attempted bounce but caved in by close.

Wednesday 11/23

2011-11-25T10:12:00.000-08:00

Morning off but afternoon down on 12:57 5T as called, key turn near 7T (until slam at close).

Tuesday 11/22

2011-11-22T16:07:00.001-08:00

LOD 100P down, news pop, midday low near 12:43, but afternoon weaker than expected.

2011-11-21T14:09:00.000-08:00

Morning high at 50R Fib and LOD at 100P; afternoon counter-trend move per 5T change with high also near another 50R, see video.

Friday 11/18

2011-11-18T13:02:00.000-08:00

Down to test globex low which still fit 2x low 5T theme, then up in 12:20-2:06 4TA-5A window as called.

For the week: "Bottom line is that congestion likely to continue in the near future. If market gets above 1272 this week then expecting stiff resistance in 1292-1300 area. If Monday down and 20MA breaks as support for 2nd time market should visit 50MA."

Wednesday midday update: "Day is down but so far 20MA is still holding; I expect this to give way either later today or soon."

Result - For 2.5 days congestion continued between 1245 area support at 1265 resistance; then Wednesday broke down, Thursday lower as expected, some lift for strike. Thursday's low already within 5 points of 50MA. Good enough, so that's another week in the 'mostly right' column.

Thursday 11/17

2011-11-17T13:29:00.000-08:00

Down to globex low and then some as noted midday; 2:41 key change stopped dropping and up after 3:44 as called.

Wednesday 11/16

2011-11-16T16:30:00.000-08:00

Opened lower but managed to fill gap. 12:55 turned out low contrary to expectations; didn't forecast last hour tank but "Day is down but so far 20MA is still holding; I expect this to give way either later today or soon."

Tuesday 11/15

2011-11-15T13:12:00.000-08:00

Morning down, huge change on 11:52 5T, rally most of the afternoon; down after 3:48 as called.

Sent 11:48: "Key 5T change that could really change the tone on the day."

Monday 11/14

2011-11-14T18:10:00.001-08:00

Down in the 4TA-5A window for best of the of the day, key low near 1244 as called; bounce high at 38R per trading theme, see video.

Friday 11/11

2011-11-11T14:37:00.000-08:00

Turned out HOD near 11:25 5A and key double bottom low near 3:51 5A per trading theme for last hour.

For the week: "Preferring bullish and visit up to 1275-1285 area, but also think this will act as resistance."

Result - 1277 high, 1 day big drop, then back up. Week finished slightly positive. Calling a 50 point plunge would have been nice, but key high in resistance area good enough.

Thursday 11/10

2011-11-10T14:06:00.000-08:00

Morning 5T played out well, afternoon up on news but then down into 5A area.

Wednesday 11/9

2011-11-09T13:47:00.000-08:00

Midday call: "Should drop back down. If 12:05 4TA hits then lower to 2:07 area and possibly later, 3:03 either way. 12:52 5T theme also means stay short below 38R bounces."

Sent around 1243 or so. LOD 1222 with massive spike plunge into 2:07+.

Tuesday 11/8

2011-11-08T13:28:00.000-08:00

Very key low just after 1:08 5A!

Monday 11/7

2011-11-07T13:38:00.000-08:00

Morning off, but midday: "If 1:16 rallies then reverse and some recovery possible." 1:16 up, then 2:17 7T change up and 3:17 5T also positive.

Friday 11/4

2011-11-04T13:10:00.000-07:00

138P down, 138P up per trading theme. 10:09 4T down, 1:06 5T up, 2:25 4T down, 3:24 4T up ALL as called.

For the week: "Expecting some pullback or tight range at best Monday-Tuesday; then up on Wednesday, Thursday either way and may have clues, Friday expecting up."

Close. Larger drops Monday and early Tuesday so week was slightly negative as a whole; but up Wednesday, Thursday rallied, Friday taken down by EE# news but finished about even. Good enough!

Thursday 11/3

2011-11-03T13:19:00.000-07:00

Off today, inversions on both 9:57 6H and 1:05 5A, and 7T up most of the way.

Wednesday 11/2

2011-11-02T14:07:00.000-07:00

7T up, 4TA lift to globex high, 12:37 area key high; then afternoon key 2x low, up in 2:41 4T and down in 3:29 4T both as called.

Tuesday 11/1

2011-11-01T13:11:00.000-07:00

Up in 9:30 5T, down in 10:37 4T both as called; key high near 7T change, key low near 5T change.

Monday 10/31

2011-10-31T13:07:00.001-07:00

"Due to trading theme, 7Ts and larger negative expecting some pullback or range day at best."

10:27 5T more positive but 2x HOD, down after 12:13 & up after 12:58 both as called, then 2:54 straight down into close.

2011 Review - July through September

2011-10-29T15:28:00.000-07:00

Of 13 weeks in Q3, 7 mostly right, 4 weeks about half-way right, 2 weeks off.

Highlights include nailing the 7/18L at 1295, shifting bearish on 8/1, calling for 'very negative' on Friday 8/5 in advance of Monday 8/8; totally nailing the 1100 low; catching the 8/31H, shifting bullish for 9/12, highlighting key resistance at 1228-36 for week of 9/19.

Sent 7/4: "Consolidation 'should be' more likely as next move. If higher, watch SPX 1345. Think an immediate move up to high of year at 1370 is unlikely since that would be very far outside the daily BB. That said, don't think the declines will be that much either. This means a few range days. Tuesday either way, preferring down Wednesday, Thursday also could open lower then improve; Friday mixed. Basically: a little higher, a little lower, about sideways."

Result: Weekly open 1339, weekly close 1343 with 3/4 tight range days. Check!

Sent 7/10: "Instead of wild swings, think heading towards a level and staying there or more overall sideways consolidation likely. Looking like most action between SPX 1325-50 for options week."

Result: Bullish bias was off as market dropped Monday on Italy news, then more sideways. Half right.

Sent 7/17: "1295-1300 will probably try to fight.... Monday down, Tuesday up, Wednesday mixed signals, Thursday up, Friday morning back down for minor low.

Result: Low of week 1295 and pattern of week all right.

Sent 7/25: "I would think that threat of financial calamity would inspire one side to give at least enough to avoid worst case default scenario, but so far not. If deal comes through then SPX will be up at 1365-1370 and probably higher in coming weeks. If not, then watching the major support levels: daily 200MA at 1281 and weekly 50MA at 1254."

Result: Bearish result with no hint of any deal; low of week smack on daily 200MA which had risen to 1284 by Friday. Good enough.

Sent 7/31: "Everything depends on the debt deal; unfortunately no crystal ball. If no deal market is going down. If there is a deal, relief rally with best moves up overnight on Monday, Tuesday morning, Thursday session and overnight into Friday. Otherwise regular signals: Monday either way; Tuesday morning probably up but afternoon weaker; Wednesday stable; Thursday preferring up but watching clues; Friday probably back down."

Result: Debt deal happened but market dropped anyway; forecast shifted bearish on Monday but can't count this as right in advance.

Sent 8/7: "SPX 1148-57 is critical support. If that holds, then we could see some moderate recovery (38Rs probably acting as resistance) then back down to test or break. If this 1150 area breaks, then next level down is 1100."

Result: 1100 was it. In addition, Monday went down big as alerted last Friday before any news. Midday Wednesday update re-iterated that 1100 was the level which was bought big time after FOMC. Market was falling off a cliff but I did nail this low.

Sent 8/14: "Mostly bearish. Expecting resistance at 1195-1205 to hold and then head back down."

Result: Nailed it. Monday close high 1205, 2 days stall at that level, then wham.

Sent 8/21: "Market should go lower. Monday and Tuesday both probably down; Wednesday also should drop; Thursday can go lower in pre-market but mixed signals and some kind of stabilization possible for session; Friday preferring up overall."

Result: Stronger than expected as 1120 area held. However, falling 20MA was exact resistance as expected which led to a 55 point drop from Thursday into Friday morning.

Sent 8/28: "Everything looking good for additional gains; the question is how far it will get. Preferring for market to clear daily 20MA resistance at 1181 and head up to 1200-1210 area; if above that, watch 1225; max high in next few weeks is probably 1250-60 area."

Result: High of week 1230, good enough. In addition, forecast sent for Thursday said market 'ripe for drop.'

Sent 9/4: Overall all charts look negative so the path of least resistance is down. If 1172 area breaks then 1150 is next to watch; that may try to bounce temporarily. Longer term expect a move back down to 1100 area and possibly lower."

Result: Week opened sharply lower but 1150 held on closing basis on Tuesday and again on Friday. 'Bearish but watching 1150 to see how it reacts' was a good sum of the week.

Sent 9/11: "Expecting down Monday, preferring down Tuesday as well; Wednesday mixed but looking like down before up; Thursday expecting up, Friday up? Bottom line is that trend is down but too many traders are short so alert for the bounce off key support." I didn't get this quite right but sent this on Monday: "If Tuesday holds a higher low, then think the next move will be higher for strike."

Result: Market held key support and lifted from there for strike. Halfway right.

Sent 9/18: "Bottom line for SPX is key resistance at 1228-36 (50MA & upper BB)... Even if ultimately higher a rejection from the 50MA more likely on first hit. How far it drops, and the reaction both key.*

Result: For the week did not predict 100 S&P point drop but expected key high at 50MA (actual just 3 points away on Tuesday) congestion before FOMC (correct) and to watch for reaction from the 50MA as the key move. Thursday down per clues on Wednesday, Friday stabilization range day as called. Again half right.

Sent 9/25: "Expecting down overall on Monday, Tuesday preferring up; Wednesday back down, Thursday mixed signals, Friday down. Could be a tricky so watch the clues and updates as week unfolds."

Result: Only day that surprised was strength of Monday. Key high on Tuesday was 10 points above where I thought it would be, but Wednesday's forecast re-iterated that next move would be down into Thursday; then clues on Thursday for Friday were negative. Not perfect but not bad especially with 9/27 key high. Half right.

For the week, stronger than expected as 1120 area held. However, falling 20MA was exact resistance on Thursday which led to a 55 point drop into Friday morning.

2011 Review - April through June

2011-10-29T14:12:00.000-07:00

Total results April through June: 11 of 13 weeks mostly right and many cases spot on, 2 weeks off. One of the best quarters of my forecasting career; about 85% accurate.

Highlights include nailing the 4/18L at 1294; expecting pullback week of 5/2 so basically catching the late April high; calling for reaction down from 1350 area week of 5/31; and nailing key low level week of 6/12.

Weekly view sent 4/3: "Expecting visit to highs at least, possibly higher into Wednesday, then either way. Monday either way for session but probably up overall due to globex and last hour; Tuesday also probably higher although not high confidence; Wednesday up; Thursday expecting weaker but watching clues throughout the week; Friday either way."

Result: Lots of sideways but 4/6H as called. Mostly right.

Weekly view sent 4/10: "Moderately bullish. Monday either way for session but think positive overall since gov't shutdown averted and some recovery likely; Tuesday expecting up, Wednesday either way, Thursday also mixed signals, Friday probably sideways. Without seeing where it opens on Monday, guess is up to 1350 area and hanging around that level for strike."

Result: Off this week, more negative than expected.

Weekly view sent 4/17: "Therefore, if lower this week think 1293-1294 area will be it... For the week, Monday down then up, mixed overall; Tuesday same although better chance of up on the day; Wednesday expecting up but not high confidence and watching clues, Thursday mixed signals with morning weaker, afternoon more positive."

Result: 1294 was IT! Nailed it.

Weekly view sent 4/24: "Bullish, only question is how much. As noted in Monday's chart commentary, larger picture points higher. Monday preferring up overall, Tuesday also preferring positive (watching clues), Wednesday possible pullback, Thursday expecting up, Friday slow or down for the morning but up in the afternoon."

Result: Bullish it was! Not much pullback on Wednesday, but otherwise spot on.

Weekly view sent 5/1: "Everything is bullish but with daily chart at its top BB and approaching overbought, there is more chance of a pullback this week."

Result: Pullback as expected, but held 'very strong support' at the rising 20MA. Basically right.

Weekly view sent 5/8: "Monday and Tuesday best chance for bounce, especially Monday morning. Wednesday looks back down or at best mixed signals with potential for a sharp drop. Thursday also down most of the day, probably lower Friday. Bottom line is bounce Monday-Tuesday, then back down."

Result: Bounce Monday & Tuesday, down Wednesday; Thursday stronger than expected but Friday back down. 4/5 days mostly right!

Weekly view sent 5/15: "A move down to the 50MA at 1323-25 is likely, and markets have a good chance of bouncing from there.... Monday down before up; Tuesday morning also lower but afternoon could recover; Wednesday preferring up but not high confidence; Thursday probably back down; Friday lower or tight range."

Result: Pretty much nailed it as market down to 1318 on Tuesday then bounce from there into Wednesday. Upgraded Thursday to either way mid-week, Friday back down.

Weekly view sent 5/22: "All charts showing weakness, and conditions for the coming week point to a test of recent 5/17L at 1318 and possible break. If lower, then next level down is SPX 1308-10 area. Preferring down Monday but not high confidence, Tuesday expecting down or at least first move down and/or opening lower; Wednesday better chance of up, Thursday back down (higher conf), Friday looks like some up but quiet day heading into long weekend."

Result: Down to low of week early Wednesday at 1311 which bounced. Thursday was off, but otherwise correct. Mostly right.

Weekly view sent 5/31: "Preferring positive results for the week but bulls have to clear the 20MA currently 1337, 50R at 1341, then if it reaches 1348-50 probably some reaction down from there. Above that means test of highs at 1360-1370. If Wednesday is down, or market smacked from 1341 area, and/or market closes back below its 50MA at 1329, then probably a move down to test recent lows at 1311 and possibly down to 1295."

Result: Tuesdays high was at 1345, then smacked down from there. Friday's low at 1297. Even though week turned out worse than expected, the call was 'probably some reaction down from there' (1348-50) and if smacked then 1295 possible. Mostly right!

Weekly view sent 6/5: "Monthly chart in pullback mode and weekly chart points to 1271-75 area.... The scenario that makes the most sense from here is some kind of near term bounce or stabilization, but it is looking like we will see 1271-75 at some point for a key low."

Result: Market didn't stabilize that much (Tuesday tried but failed late in the day); low week late Friday at 1268, just 3 points below target zone. Again right!

Weekly view sent 6/12: "Not sure about Monday. If globex stable and Monday up, then recovery move should be on into Wednesday. If globex ugly and Monday down then chance we could see SPX 1249-54 area. Regardless preferring up Tuesday but not highest confidence; even better chance of up on Wednesday with chance of a big move; Thursday mixed signals and weaker in afternoon; Friday looks like range day."

Result: Monday tested lows and recovered, Tuesday gap up and higher for the day, Wednesday off, Thursday back down and lower in afternoon, Friday tight range day. Low of week was smack on the daily 200MA which had rising to 1258 by Thursday. Even though I missed Wednesday, 4/5 days and key low level basically right.

Weekly view sent 6/19: "For the week: "Best case for bulls would be higher Monday, then making a double bottom to 6/16L. In other words path of least resistance is lower; even if up don't think it will get far and low needs to test."

Result: Market bounced to resistance, down after FOMC per forecast and back to test lows. Mostly right.

Weekly view sent 6/26: "Expecting drop to 1246-48 with chance of 1235-38."

Result: Off. Forecast recognized bullish action from Monday, but strength of this week exceeded all expectations.

Friday 10/28

2011-10-29T13:17:00.002-07:00

Stuck in range but at the end of the day down pressure in 1st 7T, lift into 11:07 6H, 76R correct into 12:29 6H at 1275 as called midday, up into 12:57+, lift after 3:44 as called.

For the week: "Everything is bullish and and looks like market should go higher. Basically above 1222 area (50R Fib and weekly 20MA) should mean up to next level at 1257-66, then how that reacts is key. Even if market drops on some negative news out of Europe, pullbacks will probably continue to be bought."

Market rallied up to 1257 which paused as expected, some pullback which was bought. Good enough!

Thursday 10/27

2011-10-29T13:17:00.001-07:00

LOD 61R exact, see earlier chart and video. Stronger than expected midday but "If somehow 11:50 4T lifts then that changes afternoon to more bullish since 2:24 5T could go up and form a double top high."

Wednesday 10/26

2011-10-29T13:16:00.001-07:00

Open high on 50R of 2 day range per trading theme; LOD near 7T change, 1:10L at 61R also per trading theme, then V move! See video for details and Fibs.

Tuesday 10/25

2011-10-29T13:15:00.001-07:00

Trading theme - Tuesday again watch for 50Rs, swings that end even and sometimes 100Ps.

Result - 10:35H, 12:25H, 3:00H all 50R resistance (see video); LOD near 1223 area as called in midday update.

Monday 10/24

2011-10-29T13:08:00.000-07:00

First 7T up as 5T rally theme kicked in, higher in 4TA-5A window to 1252 as called in midday update, but mostly sideways on key change after 11:49 per trading theme.

Friday 10/21

2011-10-29T13:07:00.000-07:00

7T up, midday pullback more than expected but 2:22 4TA up and strong close per trading theme.

For the week: "Monday could start higher due to globex, but session looks more range bound and either way overall. Tuesday also mixed, looking like some down then up move. Wednesday should drop, Thursday either way, Friday up? Mildly bullish overall but expecting moves both ways and watching upper BB for possible resistance."

and

"If higher this week watch the upper BB for possible resistance. If lower think pullbacks will be bought; we may not see the daily 20MA & 50MA area near 1166-72 but if so that will hold."

Result was down Monday big drop in 7T, Tuesday down then up, Wednesday down, Thursday mixed, Friday up. Pullbacks were bought, Tuesday's high near upper BB on SPX which held until Friday.

That gets a 'check!'

Thursday 10/20

2011-10-29T13:04:00.000-07:00

Another day, another EU headline. That said 7T down and 10:37 5T broke down out of chop; once rally got going key lows at 38Rs per trading theme at 2:10 and 3:25.

Wednesday 10/19

2011-10-29T13:03:00.000-07:00

9:50 7T choppy up, 11:41 5T mostly down; once the plunge got going pattern was down, 38R bounce, then lower.

Tuesday 10/18

2011-10-29T13:02:00.000-07:00

11:07 7T delivered big rally aided by news pop; mostly up in 11:18-1:30 4TA-5A window, then higher in 2:18 4T and 3:25 4Ts as called.

Monday 10/17

2011-10-29T13:01:00.000-07:00

Double top HOD near 9:36 5A, 9:56 7T and 11:53 5T both down as called, double bottom LOD per trading theme.

Friday 10/14

2011-10-29T13:00:00.000-07:00

Slow and steady down until double bottom low, then slow and steady up. " If 11:25 LOD holds (50% yest close to today high) and market starts building higher lows then could be more positive rest of the day."

For the week - Again stronger than expected as Monday blasted through the first resistance levels, but expected up that day and shifted to consolidation & mild pullback into Thursday which is mostly what played out.

Thursday 10/13

2011-10-29T12:59:00.000-07:00

Key low near 5A, change of character on 12:57 5T, afternoon mostly positive as called in midday update.

Wednesday 10/12

2011-10-29T12:58:00.000-07:00

Breakouts up per main trading theme, but eventually SPX 1215 resistance kicked in as alerted midday.

Tuesday 10/11

2011-10-29T12:57:00.000-07:00

Key move from 10:08 5T, drop into 12:43+ as called midday, another key move from 2:51.

Monday 10/10

2011-10-29T12:56:00.000-07:00

Breakout up per main trading theme, 5A arrived a bit late, pullback after 1:58 as called, back up after 3:19.

Friday 10/7

2011-10-29T12:55:00.000-07:00

First move down per 5T theme with lows at 76R and globex low; 7T change started positive then hit by downgrade news, LOD 138P down per that 5T theme. Up in 2:50 4T as called, then back down to form 76R again per 5T theme. See video for all levels!

For the week: Expected breakdown and got it, also said watch the weekly BB for support which was the exact low, but strength of rally surprised. Half and half.

Thursday 10/6

2011-10-29T12:54:00.000-07:00

4TA-5A best move of day, wish I nailed it but not too hard to see it jumping. Otherwise double bottom LOD per 5T theme, counter-trend move from red to green per main training theme; more range bound after 12:06 as called, key pullback low in 1:13 4T.

Tuesday 10/4

2011-10-29T12:53:00.000-07:00

Drop into 2:53 5A and a little extra, strong recovery from there!

Monday 10/3

2011-10-29T12:52:00.000-07:00

One way drop into 1:07 5A as called, then 1:11 5T continued lower.

Friday 9/30

2011-10-29T12:50:00.000-07:00

Morning lifts from yesterday's low and intraday 76R, then another 61R midday, but afternoon dropped hard per bearish scenario. "But if nothing higher than 1150 area could drop back down last hour. If 11:45 4T drops then watch for down in 1:48 4T and then lower after 2:46 on 7T change."

For the week: "Expecting down overall on Monday, Tuesday preferring up; Wednesday back down, Thursday mixed signals, Friday down. Could be a tricky so watch the clues and updates as week unfolds." Only that surprised was strength of Monday. Key high on Tuesday was 10 points above where I thought it would be, but Wednesday's forecast re-iterated that next move would be down into Thursday; then clues on Thursday for Friday were negative. Not perfect but not bad especially with 9/27 key high.

Thursday 9/29

2011-09-29T13:10:00.000-07:00

Directional moves down in 9:54 4T- and 12:58 4T-; Afternoon 4TA-5A went down, but key support at 1335 held and up in 3:22 4T as called! "If 2:12 forms low instead then still think up after 2:42 and 3:22."

Wednesday 9/28

2011-09-28T13:05:00.000-07:00

"Probably lower today since down pressure for most of the day in 9:51 7T, a general negative at 10:26 and both 5Ts look weaker. Basically watching for 50Rs to act as resistance. If gap down, could try to fill or partial fill as first move, then down after 9:51 and if that gets going it dominates the day."

Midday bias off but "if 1172 area holds as resistance (50R globex high to session low) and 5T drops then another decline possible."

Tuesday 9/27

2011-09-27T13:10:00.001-07:00

Morning key lows on 50R supports and 7T change, then HOD near 100P up, see video; afternoon hit by news and 5T theme played out.

Monday 9/26

2011-09-26T13:07:00.000-07:00

LOD on 7T change (improvement as called), 1:00 5T double bottom per theme, afternoon 4Ts did better than expected but 3:14 delivered up as called in midday update.

Friday 9/23

2011-09-23T13:34:00.000-07:00

7T up, rally theme kicking in and nearly all key lows at 38R dips per trading theme. 10:20L, 1:05L, 2:50L all 38Rs from glob low to session highs.

For the week did not predict 100 S&P point drop but expected key high at 50MA (actual just 3 points away on Tuesday) congestion before FOMC (correct) and to watch for reaction from the 50MA as the key move. Thursday down per clues on Wednesday, Friday stabilization range day as called.

Thursday 9/22

2011-09-22T13:19:00.000-07:00

7T down as called and per clues yesterday; 9:40H, 10:20H, 2:20H all at 38Rs per trading theme (see video); slide into 11:17 5H, 1:03 5T down as called, 2:50 7T stabilized per clue in midday update! "If 12:18 4T rallies strong, then 2:50 7T change could be more positive."

Wednesday 9/21

2011-09-21T13:11:00.000-07:00

2:20 5T down, key retest low at 2:43 as called; 3:15 7T dropped hard with LOD at 138P, see video.

Tuesday 9/20

2011-09-20T13:06:00.000-07:00

9:34 key high (within 5 mins of 5A), big move up from 10:07 5T, pullback low after 12:34, double top HOD per trading theme all in line... but 2:53 key change surprised down.

Monday 9/19

2011-09-19T13:05:00.001-07:00

2x LOD as 9:52 5T turned up; afternoon up on 1:47 7T as called. Midday: "If 4TA goes up then rally is on, trend is up until double top and perhaps much more of gap fill." HOD on 5A very near exact.

Friday 9/16

2011-09-16T13:04:00.000-07:00

LOD on 5A just after 11:26.

For the week, sent Monday:"Expecting down Monday, preferring down Tuesday as well; Wednesday mixed but looking like down before up; Thursday expecting up, Friday up? Bottom line is that trend is down but too many traders are short so alert for the bounce off key support."

Sent in forecast for Tuesday: "Forecast was looking for a move down to 1100-1120 support; so far it reached 1136 which may have been it because *put call is just way too high.* If Tuesday holds a higher low, then think the next move will be higher for strike." (Sent SPX 1162, Friday open 1209). I'm going to say good enough here, so that's 7 weeks right 1 week halfway, 3 weeks off in Q3.