Thursday 1/31

Moon at the end of the Scorpio; this is now the 3rd trading day of the sign with penchant for the depths. Market going down but in my work Thursday's session has a chance of some recovery late in the day.

Recovery kicked in right from the start. Subscribers trading forecast caught points! HOD 3:50 as called.

Results
Perhaps-path
If gap down, looking for attempt at fill or half fill even starting right from open. Up into 9:54 and overall up from 9:53 to 10:34 and again from 10:34 to about 11:30. Drop into 11:43 and down following, weak midday, then down and maybe hard after 1:05. Lift into 1:21 and 2:25 but expecting key lows along the way here from 1:05 to 2:26. Up after 2:26, stronger up after 3:37.

Trading
Hopping on gap fill trade if not at open then after 9:45 news good for 5-10 points depending on exit. Markets paused but reentry after 10:34 with break of highs anther score just matter of exit; even if out at 11:30 another 12 points. Midday formed intraday correction and if short here a few points or scratch; this held ID 38% which confirmed bullish bias for afternoon. Even if long after 2:26 with macd up at 2:45, another 10 points. Markets finally turned on 3:49 (why I wrote: " HOD: 3:49-close); sometimes it pays to watch those 3Ts.

Call - "In spite of the down bias in pre-market, Thursday's session could be more positive. Chance of up from the start ... Preferred scenario is up, dip at 9:40 and strong surge higher into 9:54. Further up after 10:02. Up again after 10:34 and maybe strong, then a sharp drop into 11:43 and continuing down after 11:44."
Result - Up to 11:44, spot on.

Call - "Expecting lows at 12:22 and again 12:50-56 but if these are higher then this points to a more positive afternoon. One more down period to go and that is 1:05 to 2:26. On a bad day (which it could be), lower lows here despite the lift into 1:21. Down into 1:47, strong up into 2:25 and rebound after 2:26. Stronger up 3:37 to 3:49."
Result - low 12:25, low 12:56 then off to the races. By 1:05 we know it isn't a bad day. HOD 3:50.

* * * * * * *

Overnight weak; session slow up but dives along the way.

Perhaps-path
If gap down, looking for attempt at fill or half fill even starting right from open. Up into 9:54 and overall up from 9:53 to 10:34 and again from 10:34 to about 11:30. Drop into 11:43 and down following, weak midday, then down and maybe hard after 1:05. Lift into 1:21 and 2:25 but expecting key lows along the way here from 1:05 to 2:26. Up after 2:26, stronger up after 3:37.

Trading
Watching for: markets checking lows (pre-market counts), deeper retracements (61% or 76%), V-moves. Thursday also has chance of trend channel day; preferred scenario is slow up with market checking lows at the negative hits and grinding higher in the positive periods. On a more negative day, it will be trend channel down day with breaks lower with the negative hits and periods. Anytime after 12:05 to close looking for 50% retracement up moves.

News: 8:30 Personal Income, Employment Cost, Claims; 9:45 NAPM; 10:30 Natural Gas

Details
Overnight markets have some chance of up anytime after 7:00 pm Wednesday to about 5:00 am Thursday, but this is the juncture to watch for the influence on Thursday's session. If markets start to drop here, could be an ugly day. Big news at 8:30 and any data that convinces traders that the economy is doomed and a bear market is underway will send markets sharply lower. That said, of course any positive numbers will help lift. The point here is that markets can easily drop after 5:00 am and if the catalyst comes in it is just a question of how far.

In spite of the down bias in pre-market, Thursday's session could be more positive. Chance of up from the start but if price not delivering then watch for drop into 9:40 and down again after 9:43. Preferred scenario is up, dip at 9:40 and strong surge higher into 9:54. Further up after 10:02. Up again after 10:34 and maybe strong, then a sharp drop into 11:43 and continuing down after 11:44.

Watch for sign of stabilization after 12:05. Not quite the time to buy in yet since expecting lows at 12:22 and again 12:50-56 but if these are higher then this points to a more positive afternoon. One more down period to go and that is 1:05 to 2:26. On a bad day (which it could be), lower lows here despite the lift into 1:21. Down into 1:47, strong up into 2:25 and rebound after 2:26. Stronger up 3:37 to 3:49 and maybe even to close.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 1:15 - 2:01; key lows open-9:40, 11:43*, 12:22, 12:50-56*, 1:47-2:01, 3:15.
HOD: 3:49-close; key highs 9:54*, 11:30 area, 1:21, 2:25.

Notes to forecast
1. All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
2. Details section for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring moves for information on larger moves.
3. 3Ts and hits for short term trades and entry & exit points; watch the 4, 5 and especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5Hs. I am now separating out the 3Ts from the others to make the larger cycles easier to see.

Price levels
Daily SPX made it to the 50% retracement only to promptly reverse and close lower. It even dropped below the 1/25H which would act as support if we had an actual turnaround here; bear market price action. Chart 1.

Even though NDX closed positive, overall it remains weaker down towards the 23% level. Tech is particularly at risk for dropping on Thursday and Friday. Chart 2.

Hourly ES fell below the healthy uptrend line (bearish) but is still above the top TL of the last several weeks (bullish). This top TL could act as support. Notice how the uptrend line acted as resistance Wednesday afternoon.

Support: 1347-40 (61% from 1/28L to 1/30H), 1338 (76%, ditto), 1/28L at 1322-25, then fibs from the larger move: 1325 is 50% 50% from 1/22L to 1/30H, 1309 (61%), 1291 (76%), 1262-70.

Resistance: 1350 (Wednesday's close & key level), 1370 (1/25H), 1387 (1/30H) 1395-99 (76% from 1/10H to 1/22L), 1420 (1/15 unfilled gap), 1436 (1/10H).

Swing trading
Bias is for negative claims or other data to send markets down in pre-market, but Thursday session has chance of up and some recovery. On a bad day, lower lows into early afternoon and intraday session (not including gap) also down. Friday looking for up if at all possible. Highs of the week could be in on Wednesday, but if Thursday holds and Friday lifts big chance market could retest by Friday afternoon, but this is best case scenario. More likely is lower highs on Friday. Next week is going down.

Long term view
SPX daily chart chart finally did make a higher low and higher high only to promptly give it back and drop below the 1st high on 1/25. Until it can get back above 1368-70 and stay there, the daily long term trend is still down. Even if Friday lifts up again to test Wednesday's high, expecting market to be back down towards lows next week and ultimately making lower lows into 2/22-25.

Time EST	Ts	3Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T-
9:30 AM	6T+
9:30 AM	5Tm
9:30 AM		3T+			to 9:43
9:40 AM			4H-
9:43 AM		3T-			to 10:02
9:53 AM	4T+
9:54 AM			4H++	*
10:02 AM		3T+			to 10:14
10:09 AM			4H+
10:14 AM		3T-			to 10:26
10:25 AM			4H-
10:34 AM	4T+
10:47 AM		3T-			to 11:04
11:27 AM		3T-			to 11:50
11:43 AM			4H--	*
11:44 AM	4T-
11:53 AM		3T--		*	to 12:13
11:58 AM			4H+
12:05 PM	5T+?
12:13 PM		3T+			to 1:21
12:22 PM			4H--
12:50 PM			5H-
12:56 PM			4H-
1:05 PM	4T--			*
1:15 PM			4H-
1:21 PM		3T-			to 1:47
1:21 PM			4H++	*
1:47 PM			4H--
2:01 PM			4H-
2:25 PM			4H++	*
2:26 PM	4T+
2:46 PM		3T--			to 3:15
3:15 PM		3T+			to 3:49
3:37 PM	4T++			*
3:49 PM		3T-			to close

Wednesday 1/30

Moon in Scorpio today but a little worse in 4th Q means overall down pressure. Looking for run up into 2:00 with Moon trine Uranus, then markets moving on 2:15 news.

FOMC delivered, but market conked out.

Results
Perhaps-path
Quick run up possible on open, slowing down after 10:00. Another chance of up after 10:48, key low 11:11, then looking for run up anytime after 11:57 into 1:59. This can be a strong move which breaks out to upside. Bias for down after 2:15 (see details below). Top 2:26-34, down after 2:31 and more down after 2:50. Up after 3:21, down after 3:52 to close.

Trading
Price gave long signal near 9:50 with TL break and MACD up with market going for gap fill, quick run up good for 3-5 points. Next move is to see how market references gap. A little poke higher but not above pre-market high, then MACD negative and support breaking near 11:05 with forecast of down into 11:11; short near 1360 too for 2-3 points with exit at that 61% retrace. Then looking for long after 11:57 probably scratch; trying again after 12:50 good for a few points. FOMC cut 50 and markets went up as called as most likely scenario in midday update; if positioned then good gain since first high right on time at 2:26. Then afternoon 4Ts didn't work with markets selling off after price hit key level and bad news out. 5T- at 3:52 did take markets down hard on the dot.

Midday call - "So the most likely scenario is a 50 bp cut and markets mildly lifting on news since this is expected."

Call - "If market likes 2:15 news, then look for surge to 50% level or (SPX) 1384."
Result - High 1385.

* * * * * * *

Looking for run up into 2:00. Speculative bias for down after 2:15, then recovery up after 3:21.

Perhaps-path
Quick run up possible on open, slowing down after 10:00. Another chance of up after 10:48, key low 11:11, then looking for run up anytime after 11:57 into 1:59. This can be a strong move which breaks out to upside. Bias for down after 2:15 (see details below). Top 2:26-34, down after 2:31 and more down after 2:50. Up after 3:21, down after 3:52 to close.

Trading
Watching for: markets checking lows (pre-market counts), deeper retracements (61% or 76%), V-moves. If the tank scenario comes in (GDP raising expectations of 50 and FOMC delivering only 25), the move could be big.

News: 8:30 GDP

Details
Overnight conditions are weak at about 7:00 pm on Tuesday and then again after 2:45 am on Wednesday. If price clearly moves down here, then additional down pressure for Wednesday overall. Markets moving on GDP news at 8:30 am but tricky. Strong #s may mean less chance of 50 bp cut and markets could go down; weak #s will raise hopes of the 50 bp cut.

Factor this in to how the market responds at 2:15. What I mean by this: if market strongly expects 50 and gets it, then price should go up after the release. If GDP is strong and fewer people expect 50 but that is what FOMC delivers, then big rally. On the other side, if fewer people are expecting 50 and the result is 25 then moderate decline. Worst case is strong expectation for 50 and getting only 25, which could result in a big tank.

For session open, watch for quick up after 9:30 into 9:47 or all the way to 9:58-10:00, then expecting down. Down more likely after 10:18 and into 10:46. Key change at 10:48, good chance of up. Key low 11:11. After 11:57 has an additional cycle that is strongly positive and on a good day markets will start jumping right here. If no signs of kicking in yet, then down after 12:09 with key low at 12:25. After 12:50 should get moving even more strongly to upside with lift into 1:59. This move has the potential to break above any recent highs or trend channels in play for the day; or if the day has been down then this will be the reversal up.

I cannot predict what the FOMC will do. If I were a gambling man (usually not, since there are so many moves which can be precisely nailed) then I would rather be short for the release. Consider this speculative, but my 'ideal' scenario is that FOMC cuts only 25 due to inflation concerns and disappoints the market. After all, isn't 1% in 1 week enough?

Watch for up into 2:26 and another top at 2:34, then down. Acceleration down after 2:50, chance of up after 3:19. Up and maybe strong after 3:21, down again after 3:52 into close.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 3:19-21; key lows open, 10:46, 11:11, 12:25, 1:02, 1:51, close.
HOD: 1:59-2:15; key highs 9:58-10:00, 1:25, 2:26-34, 3:52 (bullish scenario).

Notes to forecast
1. All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
2. Details section for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring moves for information on larger moves.
3. 3Ts and hits for short term trades and entry & exit points; watch the 4, 5 and especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5Hs. I am now separating out the 3Ts from the others to make the larger cycles easier to see.

Price levels
Daily SPX got slightly above the 38% level but still has not made a higher high. Daily trend is still down until we see both higher lows and higher highs, and the first high acts as clear support. If market likes 2:15 news, then look for surge to 50% level or 1384.

NDX remains weaker as expected and will continue leading to downside. Chart 2.

Hourly ES got above the top TL which has been in play since late December; this is a bullish signal but of course we find out if it is for real at 2:15.

Support (all in ES futures) - 1350, 1339-40 (61% from 1/28L to 1/29H), 1333 (76%, ditto), 1/28L at 1322-25, then fibs from the larger move: 1316 is 50% from 1/22L to 1/25H, 1303 (61%), 1287 (76%), 1262-70.

Resistance - 1/25H at 1370, 1395-99 (76% from 1/10H to 1/22L), 1420 (1/15 unfilled gap), 1436 (1/10H).

Swing trading
Markets moving on FOMC. If up, then likely pause on Thursday and big up Friday with higher highs. If down, markets can easily be back towards 1300 and further down on Thursday, then recovering up on Friday.

Regardless of which scenario plays out, the following week of 2/4 looks nasty and markets will go down.

Longer term view
This week mixed scenarios due to FOMC; bullish is up into 2/1, bearish is that the high of the week comes Wednesday afternoon with markets trading down after the news. Market down after 2/4 into 2/22-25. Expecting lower lows than 1/23. A major move up into the end of this week may make lower lows less likely, but I think there is a better chance of lower lows.

Time EST	Ts	3Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T-
9:30 AM	6T-
9:30 AM	5T+
9:30 AM		3T+			to 9:47
9:47 AM		3T-			to 10:06
9:52 AM			4Hm
9:58 AM	4T-
10:00 AM			4H+
10:06 AM		3T+			to 10:18
10:18 AM		3T-			to 10:30
10:46 AM			4H-
10:48 AM	5T+?
10:51 AM		3T-			to 11:08
11:11 AM			4H--	*
11:31 AM		3T-			to 11:54
11:57 AM	4TA+				to 1:59
11:57 AM		3T-			to 12:17
12:02 PM			4H+
12:09 PM	4T-
12:17 PM		3T+			to 1:25
12:25 PM			4H--	*
12:50 PM	4TA+			*	to 1:59
1:02 PM			4H-
1:10 PM	4T+
1:15 PM			4H-
1:25 PM		3T-			to 1:51
1:25 PM			4H+
1:51 PM			4H--
1:59 PM			5H++	**
2:26 PM			4H++
2:31 PM	4T-
2:34 PM			4H+
2:50 PM		3T--			to 3:19
3:19 PM		3T+			to 3:53
3:21 PM	4T+
3:52 PM	5T-
3:53 PM		3T-

Tuesday 1/29

Moon in Scorpio often likes to check lows, but this time traders more confidently pushing up market in front of Wednesday's FOMC.

If you want to know what a Scorpio V move looks like, just check the morning chart.

Results
Perhaps-path
Looking for up after key change to positive at 9:35 and if that kicks in markets largely supported for the morning. Key low 10:42, then looking for more up after 11:36. Down anytime after 12:26, down into 1:07 and continuing down to 1:57. Up after 1:57 to about 2:30, then key change to negative at 2:37 so expecting down from there to close.

Call - "Watching for: markets checking lows (pre-market counts), deeper retracements (61% or 76%), V-moves."
Result - Markets gapped up but made fill, made picture perfect V move in the morning, then made afternoon 61% retracement that hit 3-4 times.

Midday call - "Downgrading 11:36 4T to m but upgrading 1:07 4T to m,' ok both were technically mixed but price did move down after 11:36 and up after 1:07.

Trading
Markets gapped up so cautious on early longs, no price action trigger since markets below pre-market highs and not even able to lift above 9:30 H; macd remained negative. Once gap fills and recovers feel free to jump in so good for a few points or scratch depending on exit. Early update alerted possible down after 11:36 and at 11:45 there were several signals coming together - a failed high, update with more bias towards down, macd cross to negative at 11:45, a lower low at 11:49 and a confirmed 3T- at 12:00. Getting short here in 1361-62 area anywhere from 11:45-55 good for 4-7 points depending on execution. Low was exact 61% retrace as highlighted in trading notes and smack on a 4H- at 12:29. Midday update also alerted for possible up after 1:07 and again several things came together: 61% holding, top TL measured from 11:40H to 12:45H broken to upside, update saying up, and macd cross at 1:26. This trade also good for a few points; warning of down into 1:55 meant might as well take the profit when price ran out of steam. I was expecting down after 2:37, but positive news regarding the House passing stimulus package turned this up. However, at 2:37 you have retrace holding, macd positive, no trendline break, and higher low at 2:45 and higher high at 2:50 so short simply not triggered!

* * * * * * *

Up in the morning, down in the afternoon.

Perhaps-path
Looking for up after key change to positive at 9:35 and if that kicks in markets largely supported for the morning. Key low 10:42, then looking for more up after 11:36. Down anytime after 12:26, down into 1:07 and continuing down to 1:57. Up after 1:57 to about 2:30, then key change to negative at 2:37 so expecting down from there to close.

Trading notes
Watching for: markets checking lows (pre-market counts), deeper retracements (61% or 76%), V-moves (down then up). Also, Mercury is now retrograde for the next 3 weeks. While I don't often mention this type of information in this section, I encourage traders to review performance of these periods from 2007: 10/12 to 11/2, 6/15 to 7/10 and 2/14 to 3/8.

News: 8:30 am Durable orders; 10:00 Consumer confidence

Details
Overnight conditions are mostly positive yet markets reacting on GW's speech. The time to watch on Tuesday is about 4:30 am. Expecting first move down into about 4:50, then recovery up. As long as markets rally after 5:00 am, then positive bias is on for Tuesday. Closer to session open, conditions after 8:40 are more negative so news that make traders question the recent advance will easily send markets back down to lows.

For the session, watching for up after one of two key changes on the day at 9:35. Basically, if markets get going up here, there should be overall positive momentum to about 11:00 and on a good day even to 12:26. Top 9:51, then markets waiting on 10:00 news. Watch the 3Ts for moves up and down; key low into 10:42. Down pressure after 10:58 to 11:15, then mixed but expecting the positive larger cycle from 11:36 to win out. Watch for turn down anytime after 12:26.

Drop into 1:07, down likely continuing afterwards as well. Up and maybe strong after 1:57 into 2:24-32. Important change on the day at 2:37 to negative so markets should again move down. Down after 2:54, and additional down pressure after 3:04.

Guess-pectations
LOD: open; key lows 3:49-close (2nd choice LOD), 10:42*, 1:55.
HOD: 11:36-12:00; key highs 12:26, 2:24-32*.

Notes to forecast
1. All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
2. Details section for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring moves for information on larger moves.
3. 3Ts and hits for short term trades and entry & exit points; watch the 4, 5 and especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5Hs.

Price levels
Daily SPX found support at the 23% level and headed back towards the 38% at 1357. Chart 1.

However, NDX is much weaker and still well below the 38% level. Chart 2. NDX will continue leading to downside and will make better shorts.

Hourly ES still facing resistance at the top trendline. Chart 3.

Support - 1350, 1336 (61% from 1/28L to H), 1331 (76%, ditto), 1/28L at 1322-25, then fibs from the larger move: 1316 is 50% from 1/22L to 1/25H, 1303 (61%), 1287 (76%).

Resistance - 1/28H at 1358, 1/25H at 1370, 1395-99 (76% from 1/10H to 1/22L).

Swing trading
So far markets up on Monday, but will need follow through buying on Tuesday and better for the bulls to get above Friday's high. However, this is by no means guaranteed. Signals point down Tuesday afternoon and even though markets typically run up in front of FOMC, more chance of drop overnight on Tuesday heading into Wednesday session. Once Wednesday session begins, then more of a chance of a move higher into the news release. More detail for FOMC in Wednesday's forecast. Still looking for down Thursday and up Friday.

Regardless of how markets move on Wednesday and this week, the following week of 2/4 looks nasty and markets will go down.

Longer term view
This week mixed scenarios due to FOMC; bullish is up into 2/1, bearish is that the high of the week comes Wednesday afternoon with markets trading down after the news. Market down after 2/4 into 2/22-25. Expecting lower lows than 1/23. A major move up into the end of this week may make lower lows less likely, but I think there is a better chance of lower lows.

Time EST	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T+
9:30 AM	6T+
9:30 AM	5T-
9:30 AM	3T+			to 9:51
9:35 AM	5T+		*
9:48 AM		4H-
9:51 AM	3T-			to 10:10
9:51 AM		4H+
10:22 AM	3T-			to 10:34
10:34 AM	3T+			to 10:55
10:42 AM		4H--	*
10:58 AM	3T-			to 11:15
11:35 AM	3T-			to 11:54
11:36 AM	4T+
12:00 PM	3T-			to 12:21
12:21 PM	3T+			to 1:29
12:26 PM	4T--		*
12:29 PM		4H-
1:07 PM	4T-		*
1:07 PM		4H-
1:29 PM	3T-			to 1:55
1:55 PM		4H-
1:57 PM	4T+
2:24 PM		4H+
2:32 PM		4H+
2:37 PM	5T-		*
2:54 PM	3T--		*	to 3:23
3:04 PM	4TA-			to close
3:23 PM	3T+			to 3:57
3:48 PM	4Tm
3:49 PM		4H-
3:57 PM	3T--			to close +

Monday 1/28

Moon in Libra today is often good for swings both ways. According to my methods watching for up, down, then chance of back up again.

Market did swing today but mostly up.

Results
"Perhaps-path
Quick up into 10:13 if news permits, then watch 10:36 for key change. Expecting down into 11:01. If this is higher low, then markets supported to 1:35 or even rest of day. If lower low, then bias more bearish and likely lower lows into 1:59-2:15. In any scenario, expecting down after 1:35 into 1:59-2:15. Chance of recovery up afterwards."

Markets dropped on 10:00 news, but 10:13 prompted some buying and long with macd and top TL break at 10:20 was good for 5-10 points. A 3T took market down after 11:02; looking long again 11:26 a few points or scratch. Shorting for 12:36 stopped out; the move into 2:15 inverted and took the market up with key high at 2:36. Last hour had some swings but long bias triggered with macd and another top TL break at 3:31 good for 10 points.

Call - "The more bullish scenario for the morning is clear up after 10:36 with a higher low at 11:01, then more up into midday."
Result - Market up after 10:36 shifts bias to bullish; result HOD near close.

Call - "up into close after 2:20, but down after 3:45."
Result - This nailed the top for afternoon longs.

* * * * * * *

Monday swings both ways. Watch for early high and mid-afternoon low.

Perhaps-path
Quick up into 10:13 if news permits, then watch 10:36 for key change. Expecting down into 11:01. If this is higher low, then markets supported to 1:35 or even rest of day. If lower low, then bias more bearish and likely lower lows into 1:59-2:15. In any scenario, expecting down after 1:35 into 1:59-2:15. Chance of recovery up afterwards.

Trading
Market swinging both ways today so go for points on both sides. Chance of roughly even from open to close.

News: 10:00 New home sales

Details
Conditions for the Sunday evening open are mixed and markets can go either way. Lift into 8:00 pm, then watch after 8:45 pm for a possible change in tone. Closer to session open, watch for up anytime after 8:20 am. If markets get going here, then momentum likely to continue into about 10:15.

Looking for quick up on open into about 9:50, then a drop as markets wait on 10:00 news. Conditions are mostly positive so any good number will be a catalyst for buying into 10:13. If data not as good though, this may peter out. Down into 10:20 and further down after 10:26. After 10:36 has 2 separate cycles in play including an important 7T; markets may show signs of confusion here. Some bias towards down into the negative event at 11:01. Chance of some up after that passes, then another chance of up after 11:26. If the 3T+?s have lifted so far then watch for up after 12:04 into 12:17. The more bullish scenario for the morning is clear up after 10:36 with a higher low at 11:01, then more up into midday.

Sharp drop into 12:33, then further down after 12:36 into 12:56. Lift into 1:11, then watch 1:35. If day has given reason for traders to gain confidence, there is some chance that market holds up here and then merely dips into 1:59-2:15. The more likely scenario, though, is down after 1:35 and sharp drop into 1:59-2:15. Markets should recover after that passes especially into 2:36. Bias is for weak up into close after 2:20, but down after 3:45.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 1:59-2:15; key lows 11:01, 12:33;
HOD: 10:13; key highs 9:49, 12:17.

Price levels
The weekly SPX dropped down to a 38% correction from the July 2002 low, then rallied. If that low breaks, next key support is area of 2006 lows which is about 1220-1240. In my view, the market is proving its bearishness by referencing the low of the last bear market. We have more than a correction going on which means significant chance of lower lows. Chart 1.

Daily SPX made it up to 38% retrace from 12/11H, then promptly returned back down. Chart 2.

NDX made the same move, chart 3.

Hourly ES couldn't get above the downtrend channel that has been in play since late December. Chart 4. However, as of Friday a 38% level was holding.

Support - if Monday drops, then next level down is 1325 due to previous highs, then 50% area on chart 4 which is 1316.

Resistance - Friday's high was exactly 61% from 1/10H to 1/22L. So we have 1349-50 which is 50%, the previous high at 1369, then above that 1397, then unfilled gap at 1420.

From last Thursday's forecast: "Hourly ES is already above a recent 100 ABCD, but since we just had a 161 on the daily it is not a stretch to look for 161 up which is 1370. I don't think this will hit on Thursday but might by Friday or next week." 1370 was the top. Regular clients know I really like these ABCDs and am always on the lookout for the next pattern on daily, hourly and even 15, 5 and 1 minute charts.

Swing trading
This coming week has mixed scenarios due to FOMC. Monday swings both ways and has good chance of ending close to even. Tuesday should be stronger up, then Wednesday moving on FOMC news. Thursday down, Friday up.

The bullish scenario is for low of the week to form Monday or early Tuesday, then market big up on Wednesday with FOMC, down Thursday and further up on Friday with the highs of the week on Friday. At this point preferring bullish scenario but FOMC will have to deliver.

Bearish scenario is down Monday, recovery up Tuesday, down on Wednesday due to FOMC, further down Thursday with low of the week near close, then rebound on Friday.

Regardless of which plays out, the following week of 2/4 looks nasty and markets will go down.

Longer term view
This week cautiously bullish into Friday, but longer term still bearish. Market down after 2/4 into 2/22-25. Expecting lower lows than 1/23. A major move up into the end of this week may make lower lows less likely, but I think there is a better chance of lower lows.

Time EST	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7Tm
9:30 AM	6Tm
9:30 AM	5T+
9:37 AM	4T+?
9:49 AM		4H+
9:52 AM		4H-
9:55 AM	3T+?			to 10:14
10:13 AM		5H++	*
10:20 AM		4H-
10:26 AM	3T-			to 10:38
10:36 AM	7Tm
10:36 AM	4Tm
10:57 AM	4TA-
10:59 AM	3T+?			to 11:16
11:01 AM		5H--	**
11:02 AM	3T-			to 11:19
11:26 AM	4T+?
11:39 AM	3T-			to 11:55
12:04 PM	3T+?			to 12:25
12:17 PM		5H+
12:29 PM	6T+
12:33 PM		4H--	*
12:36 PM	4T-
12:56 PM		5H-
1:00 PM		4H-
1:11 PM		4H+
1:33 PM	3T-			to 1:59
1:35 PM	5Tm
1:59 PM		4H--	*
2:15 PM		5H--	**
2:20 PM	4TA+
2:36 PM		4H+
2:45 PM	4Tm
3:45 PM	4T-

Friday 1/25

Moon in Virgo will be another dull day, but opposite Uranus near 3:45 will shake things up one way or the other.

Not so dull.Trend day down until the Moon Uranus aspect lifted, then promptly back down.

Results
Perhaps-path
A lot of mixed signals today may mean sideways. Bias is for up after open and stronger up after 9:42, then settling into trend channel. Key turn 10:46. Up after 11:41, down after 12:28. Key change at 1:14; looking for up into 1:35-46 to form key highs. Down into 2:14 and another drop into 2:38-45. Watch after 1:52 for direction into 3:44, then repeat the exercise at 3:06. Whatever channel has been in play for the morning or afternoon, watch for a breakout either up or down especially after 3:06 into 3:44.

By the close we know it was trend day down with breakout up after 3:06 into 3:44; then as soon as this passed price went right back into the same down channel. If looking for trend in first hour then answer becomes clearly down with HOD at 9:38 so shorting 9:43 with MACD negative then just matter of exit with profits anywhere from 5-12 points. 10:46 turned out to be a top. Markets more stable after 11:41 but still down, then much harder down after 12:28. Short here with break of lows at 12:29 good for 7-10 points. 1:14 continued down but market turned on the dot of 1:52 telling us the move into 3:44 would be up. First long stopped out or scratch but #2 good for 3-5 points, then turning around short after 3:44 good for another 3-5 points.

Call - "Bias is for up after open and stronger up after 9:42, then settling into trend channel. Key turn 10:46. Up after 11:41, down after 12:28."
Result - Trend channel down in play by 10, 10:46 top, 11:41 more sideways but definitely down after 12:28!

Call - "Watch after 1:52 for direction into 3:44, then repeat the exercise at 3:06. Whatever channel has been in play for the morning or afternoon, watch for a breakout either up or down especially after 3:06 into 3:44."
Result - Markets turned on the dot here, then lifted after 3:06 into 3:44 to breakout above the top TL that had been in play all day. After 3:44 passed promptly back down.

* * * * * * *

Mostly another boring day. Quick up early, then trend channel. Best move from about 2:00 into 3:45, but can go either way.

Perhaps-path
A lot of mixed signals today may mean sideways. Bias is for up after open and stronger up after 9:42, then settling into trend channel. Key turn 10:46. Up after 11:41, down after 12:28. Key change at 1:14; looking for up into 1:35-46 to form key highs. Down into 2:14 and another drop into 2:38-45. Watch after 1:52 for direction into 3:44, then repeat the exercise at 3:06. Whatever channel has been in play for the morning or afternoon, watch for a breakout either up or down especially after 3:06 into 3:44.

Trading
Best trading is going for first quick move up, then watching for trend channel. Breakout either way after 2:00 and even more likely after 3:06 into 3:44; can go either way.

News: None scheduled

Details
The thing to watch in overnight markets is how deeply markets drop into 11:15 pm on Thursday and if they are able to recover after this passes. Friday morning is mildly negative, but watch anytime after 8:40 am for possible lift.

A lot of my signals are mixed today, and coupled with the lack of news and FOMC next week it may be a dull day. That said, bias is for up with session open then a dip at 9:38. Chance of stronger lift after 9:42, but aside from this things are mixed and can go either way. Watch the 3T+s for trend channel trading. Possible move into 10:46. Better chance of up after 11:41, then down after 12:28.

Key change at 1:14. On a good day, prices will continue slowly higher here, then surge into 1:35-46. Down into 2:14 and another drop into 2:38-45. Watch direction at 1:52 because this will be a clue for the overall move into 3:44. Repeat the exercise at 3:06. If the day is positive, then this will breakout to new highs. If negative, then longs scrambling before the weekend and tanking into close. Either way, key move and break out of the channel at 3:44.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 3:44-close; key lows 9:38, 10:04-15, 2:38-45
HOD 1:35-46; key highs 9:42-10:00, 10:38, 12:28, 3:44?

Price levels
Bullish that SPX was able to maintain gains. Price moved closer to a 38% retrace from the 12/26H at 1357-8. Watch this area for resistance on Friday.

NDX also moving towards the first 38% shown on chart 3.

ES sitting on about a 50% from the 1/10H; if this level holds next up is 1369-70 at 61%. This in combination with the top TL should provide some resistance.

Otherwise watching usual Fibs for support; first from 1/24 10:20L, then from 1/23L both to whatever session high is in play, Thursday or early Friday if there has been gap up.

Swing trading
Preferred scenario so far playing out with 1/22 as the low as Thursday even added to Wednesday's big gain. Friday is mixed and can go either way. The fun will begin again next week. Current view is mostly sideways on Monday, then run up on Tuesday in anticipation of Wednesday. Wednesday moves on FOMC with chance of big up that day and follow through Thursday and Friday. Aiming for 1/22L and 2/1H.

Longer term view
Short term bullish, longer term still bearish. Looking for selling 2/4 to 2/23-24. The higher the market goes, the more chance that 2/23-24 will be a higher or retest low, but it could easily be lower!

Time EST	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7Tm
9:30 AM	6T-
9:30 AM	5T+?
9:38 AM		4H-
9:39 AM	3T+?			to 9:53
9:41 AM	4Tm
9:42 AM	6T+
10:04 AM		4H-
10:15 AM		4H-?
10:25 AM	3T+			to 10:38
10:36 AM	4Tm
10:38 AM	3T--			to 10:50
10:46 AM		5Hm
11:14 AM	3T-			to 11:30
11:27 AM	3T+?			to 11:51
11:41 AM	4T+		*
11:51 AM	3T-			to 12:06
12:28 PM	4T-		*
12:36 PM	3T+?			to 12:58
1:14 PM	5T+?
1:35 PM		4H++	*
1:45 PM	3T-			to 2:11
1:46 PM		4H++	*
1:52 PM	4TAm
2:14 PM		4H-
2:38 PM		4H--	*
2:45 PM		4H--?	*
3:06 PM	4TAm
3:43 PM	4Tm
3:44 PM		5Hm	**

Thursday 1/24

Moon into Virgo at 9:47 am ends the grand Leo party of the last 2 days.

Forecast was for early high, then slow uptrend day. That is pretty much what happened.

Results
"Perhaps-path
Expecting early high, then down after 9:47 to form some kind of retracement off Wednesday's big move. However, market is still supported in the big picture so watch to buy support especially anytime after 12:04. Strongest up period of day is 12:04 to about 1:50 pm. The bearish scenario on day is that this period forms a midday correction up in overall down move with lower lows towards the close."

Key top 10:04, then down. Using MACD as entry gave 7+ point trade. After these lows, slow up and better up in afternoon as expected. 1:50 lifted market, then not much down 2:00 - 2:18 so higher highs later in the day. After first sell-off market mostly sideways so better to watch.

Call - " Even though bullish into the end of the this week and next, think short after 9:47 will be the better option or longer duration futures trade today."
Result - If you got entry and not stopped out at 10:05, this was pretty good move but markets held early morning globex lows so clue to exit. 2 other opportunities to exit with profits.

Midday call - "Market is not racing anywhere today, but would like to see slightly higher high anytime after 12:04."
Result - This came through eventually.

* * * * * * *

Slower trend channel up day. The day should close modestly higher, but the party is over at 9:45 am.

Perhaps-path
Expecting early high, then down after 9:47 to form some kind of retracement off Wednesday's big move. However, market is still supported in the big picture so watch to buy support especially anytime after 12:04. Strongest up period of day is 12:04 to about 1:50 pm. The bearish scenario on day is that this period forms a midday correction up in overall down move with lower lows towards the close.

Trading
Even though bullish into the end of the this week and next, think short after 9:47 will be the better option or longer duration futures trade today.

News: 8:30 Claims; 10:00 Home Sales; 10:30 Natural Gas

Details
Momentum likely to continue in overnight markets. Watching for even stronger up anytime after 11:00 pm on Wednesday. Looking for lift into 6:00 am Thursday, and markets can easily continue higher after that as well. However, closer to session open things may slow down anytime after 9:15.

Markets go either way on open and will make a strong move into 9:42. This is tough read because it is actually 2 different conflicting hits at the same time. Then watch for a very important change after 9:47. As I type up 85 ES points from the limit down early Tuesday, and can easily be up more Thursday morning. That is quite a show, but under most circumstances the party will be over after 9:47. This isn't to say the market is back to one way down, but momentum will cool off even on a good day. Preferred scenario is for markets to move lower, and if 10:00 news is negative then that will be the catalyst. The only way this 7T will invert is if news is an extreme positive or there are other exceptional circumstances that prompt more buying. Expecting down into 10:08 but lift into 10:18-28. Further down after 10:42, then either way (slight bias towards down) after 10:51. Watch the 3Ts for possible moves up and down in trend channel.

After 12:04 is more positive and this is complemented by more up after 12:21. More up after 12:57. Dip 1:42-47 and drop into 1:49. Down after 2:00, then more likely some down or sideways after 2:18. Pop at 2:51, either way last hour (will have clues by midday).

Guess-pectations
LOD: 11:18-34; key lows 9:54-10:08, 1:59*.
HOD: 9:42?; key highs 10:18-28*, 1:50, 2:51.

Price levels
In Wednesday's forecast: "SPX retraced 38% of the gain from October 2002 lows in about 3 months. Naturally we look for a bounce at 38%." Bounce indeed!

Daily SPX on chart 1 shows the long term 38% correction level (see note above); the ABCD that involves the July high, August low and October high bottoming at 161 which is the number often found at extremes; and then looking ahead, Fibs from the 12/26 H. 23% done and one the way to 38% at 1358 SPX.

NDX also bottomed at a 161 ABCD. Chart 2.

Hourly ES managed to get above a top TL for the first time in weeks, literally. Chart 3. If Thursday starts higher, watching the higher TL for resistance. TL off lows is key support.

Hourly ES is already above a r