Thursday, July 17, 2008

Thursday 7/17

Time and price meet at LOD.

Trading
Gap up means usual fill, so if long then just quick scalp. From my view, no trade triggered until short near 10:40, savvy exit (hitting 2 day trendline, 4H- exact, junction of 7T price level and 5T change) was gain of 5+ points. Buying 11:25 another 2-5 points. Long 12:51 or latest breakout up 1:09 10 points. Short 2:32 5 points. Long 3:18 stopped for -2.

Call - "Important change on general note - bias is bullish going forward (as long as SPX is above 1240). For the next few weeks, markets may show surprising power to rally and go after highs. If indexes head up, make shallow Fib retracements (ie 23-38Rs) and head back up, jump on. Watch for 100-123Ps, and don't rule out 138s."
Result - Morning top 138P exact on 2 day range, LOD 38R of last swing; highs intraday 138P.

Forecast top line - "On Thursday again watch the trend channels."
Result - TL off Wednesday's lows gave today's LOD; line connecting late morning and afternoon high gave today's HOD.

Guess-pectations "LOD: 10:22; key lows 11:09, 12:31*, 2:35-41+, 3:43. HOD: 2:00-2:20; key highs 10:35, 11:50, close (2nd choice HOD, two days in a row possible but a stretch during OE week)."
Result - LOD 11:10 on key low time, key higher low 12:39 just a few minutes after 12:31*, HOD 2:28 just 8 minutes after window and just barely higher, close 2nd high.