If trading before 10:00 news then scalps only. Indicators positive and price heading up means bias shifts bullish. Long 10:07 with breakout up (if not long with macd up in front of news), then only question of when to take profits. Midday update advised targets of 1440, 1443 & 1445; high within key period and near 5A 1440; if out nearby good for 7+ points. No reason to take 12:44 short. If long 1:27 with breakout up then stopped (-2), but reversing short 1:38 (or even slightly later especially with failed 2nd high and breakdown of lunchtime box) more than made up for it with gain of 7-10 points. 76R on the day (see Trading notes) was the exact low at 2:15. No reason to take 2:56 long with down hits coming; but long after 3:12 was stopped (-2). Again reversing down made it back and then some.
Call - "General picture for Monday is battle between 11:11 7T- and potentially strong 5T+ in play from open to 1:12+. On Monday watch for market to check lows and make 61-76Rs. Be alert for the V move (down then up)."
Result - Big up from open to 1:30 (20 minutes after 5T longer than usual but hey, lunch), then 7T- really kicked in to take market down.
Midday call - "Watching a variety of ABCDs for top. Intraday ABCD 76 = 1440, 100 = 1443 and 123 = 1445. 1445 also is 100 ABCD on 15 min chart."
Result - 1441 was it.
* * * * * * *
Preferring down, but mixed signals with some chance of up.
News: 10:00 Leading Indicators
Trading
General notes: Price action has been less stable and more choppy, but more frequently making double bottoms and tops. Aggressive traders can enter on a reversal bar after these form.
On Monday watch for market to check lows and make 61-76Rs. Be alert for the V move (down then up).
General picture for Monday is battle between 11:11 7T- and potentially strong 5T+ in play from open to 1:12+. 7Ts usually win so preferring bearish scenario but markets easily mixed or even up.
Expecting down into 9:59 5A and up into 11:39 5A, but tricky calls here and could invert.
Bullish scenario is down on open, big lift up into 10:27, then up again after 11:11 to 2:23 due to the 4T & 5Ts; down after 2:23, resumed up into close.
Mildly preferred bearish scenario is down on open and continuing down after 10:01, lift up into 10:27, then down; mixed markets after 11:11, drop into 12:34, then mostly down again 2:23 to close.
Movement
Overnight markets are neutral; watching tone from start of 7T at 1:05 am.
Closer to session open, watch movement from 9:10. If clearly down, then more likely drop into 9:59.
Expecting down on open and drop into 9:59. If markets clearly up from 9:10, this could invert up.
Mixed cycles in play for 10:00 news with 4T- but 3T+.
In any scenario, big lift up into 10:27.
Down after 10:56.
Key change (7T) at 11:11 to negative; 7Ts usually win but in this case strong 4T+ at the same time.
Expecting lift up into 11:39 but not high confidence.
Stronger up after 12:03 and again after 12:12.
However, sharp drop into 12:34.
Key change (5T) at 1:12, can go either way. If markets up big from 12:12, momentum will probably cool off. If tech strong, may continue higher.
Main cycle down after 2:23, but 3T+ at 2:19 has chance of pushing up.
Down into 3:02-07.
Potential lift anytime after 3:13; on a good day, V move into close.
Guess-pectations
LOD: last hour; key lows 9:59-10:05, 10:36, 12:34*, 3:02-07.
HOD: 10:27; key highs 11:39?, 12:12-33, 2:55, 3:38-close.
Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.
Charts & prices
SPX moved above the trendline in play from 07 highs and closed above 50R. Usually when market breaks 50R, 61R or 1454 is the next target. 1416 should also start acting as support. Chart 1.
NDX already at 61 and aiming for December 07 highs, chart 2.
Hourly ES in strong uptrend. Up 100 points from April lows, 38R down, then back up to new highs usually means more than a double top. Chart 3.
Support: 1410 (38R 5/9L to 5/16H), 1405 (50R), 1400 (61R & level), 1383 (5/9L).
Resistance: 1427 (5/16H), 1437 (ABCD target), 1441 (1/10H equivalent), 1445 (1/8H), 1450 (level), 1466 (2008 high).
Swing trading
Pattern of week is expecting down Monday, rebound up Tuesday, Wednesday looks higher but upside limited, down Thursday, slow Friday.
Bullish scenario is that market is either sideways or up on Monday, up big on Tuesday and continues higher Wednesday to form high of the week, making higher swing highs (compared to 5/16) in the process.
Bearish scenario is down hard Monday so that any rebound still forms lower highs.
Leaning bullish but if oil continues higher then less likely.
Days before Memorial Day weekend can be slower action and this time even more likely.
Long term view
Bullish; expecting market up into early June.
| Time EDT | Ts | 3Ts | Hs | C | Comment |
| 9:30 AM | 7Tm | from 1:05 am | |||
| 9:30 AM | 6T+ | ||||
| 9:30 AM | 4TA-? | from 9:10 | |||
| 9:30 AM | 4Tm | ||||
| 9:41 AM | 3T- | to 10:01 | |||
| 9:59 AM | 5A-? | ||||
| 10:01 AM | 4T- | ||||
| 10:01 AM | 3T+ | to 10:31 | |||
| 10:05 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 10:27 AM | 4H++ | * | |||
| 10:36 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 10:56 AM | 3T- | to 11:32 | |||
| 11:11 AM | 7T- | ||||
| 11:11 AM | 4T+ | ||||
| 11:32 AM | 3T+ | to 12:03 | |||
| 11:39 AM | 5A+? | ||||
| 12:03 PM | 3T++ | * | to 12:33 | ||
| 12:04 PM | 4H+ | ||||
| 12:12 PM | 4T+ | * | |||
| 12:33 PM | 3T+ | to 1:09 | |||
| 12:34 PM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 12:43 PM | 4H+ | ||||
| 12:56 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 1:09 PM | 3T- | to 1:59 | |||
| 1:12 PM | 5Tm | ||||
| 2:19 PM | 3T+ | to 2:55 | |||
| 2:19 PM | 4Hm | ||||
| 2:23 PM | 4T- | ||||
| 2:24 PM | 4H+ | ||||
| 2:35 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 2:55 PM | 3T- | to 3:05 | |||
| 3:02 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 3:07 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 3:13 PM | 6T+ | ||||
| 3:35 PM | 3T+ | to close | |||
| 3:38 PM | 4H+ |
