Monday 5/12

Nailed it.

Trading
No news at 10:00 so question when to jump in on Monday. Globex mostly sideways said no hurry and probably gap fill anyway. If long at 9:38 stopped (-2), but reversing down made it back. Better trade just to wait for gap to fill and indicators to turn up which they did strongly at 10:26, so gain of 5-10 points depending on exit. If short at 1:06 with macd down and lower low no loss, but again better trade just waiting for the buy at 1:52 or latest 2:14, gain 3-7 points. If short 3:11 stopped, but with oil down and bulls in charge not strongly triggered.

Option or longer duration ES trade - entry near 10:30 if held to recommended HOD window approx $1.50 to 2:00 (on 139 call) or 33% gain; 10-15 points ES.

Call - "On Monday looking for rally and maybe big; if market gets going 10-20 points possible even if no official news. Trading strategy is simple: jump on any rally. Retracements probably shallow (up, 38R down, back up) and ABCDs up hitting 100 or 123. However, major change at 2:47 will stop momentum cold."
Result - 18 point rally off lows. First intraday dip at 11:15 just 23R then up; next low 38R then up again. HOD 2:51 and while markets did not drop there was nothing higher.

Call - "Up after 10:02 / 10:11. Strong lift up into 10:35+. Expecting up after 12:28 with strong surge up into 12:55."
Result - 10:35 big bar up. 12:55 key high.

Midday call - "Ideal HOD 2:35 - 2:54."
Result - HOD 2:51, then 2 more tops but nothing higher.









* * * * * * *

Rally and maybe big to about 2:47+, then down.

News: None scheduled.
Also: FOMC Pres talking 4:15 am.

Trading
General notes: Price action has been less stable and more choppy, but more frequently making double bottoms and tops. Aggressive traders can enter on a reversal bar after these form.
On Monday looking for rally and maybe big; if market gets going 10-20 points possible even if no official news. Trading strategy is simple: jump on any rally. Retracements probably shallow (up, 38R down, back up) and ABCDs up hitting 100 or 123. However, major change at 2:47 will stop momentum cold and likely send markets down into close. Market will drop harder the more oil is still up.

Movement
Overnight markets positive, maybe strong.
Watch for acceleration up after 4:20 am with start of 7T+.

Either way on open.
Up after 10:02 / 10:11.
Strong lift up into 10:35+.
Momentum possibly slowing after 11:24, but chance of up after 11:34.
If markets clearly up after 11:34, then more likely up after 12:28 as well.
Mixed cycles in play after 11:59.

Expecting up after 12:28 with strong surge up into 12:55.
1:25 area mixed between general positive (6H+) and negative.
Down after 2:10, but watch for lift up after 2:35.
Down and maybe strong after 2:47.
Chance of a last surge up with 3T+ in play, but watch for any top and down into 3:35-44.

Guess-pectations
LOD: first 30 minutes; key lows 11:03, 1:09-25, 3:34-44*.
HOD: 2:47-2:54; key highs 10:35-39, 12:27, 12:55.

Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.

Charts & prices
SPX made it up to 50R from 10/07H to 3/08L, then halted. If bulls continue to take charge first high at 38R near 1380 will act as support. Chart 1.

Daily SPX on chart 2 showing the supporting uptrend line. Looks key turn at junction point on 5/13 which turns out to be 1 day from key low this week with regular forecast.

NDX has been leading the charge but again fell back last week. Holding 50R or 1950 area would be very bullish going forward.

Daily NDX in strong uptrend; even if it drops down into Wednesday, channel very likely intact. Chart 4.

Hourly ES fell through the supporting uptrend line, but even recent correction still just 38R from last key low on 4/15. If 1385 area holds and market heads back up, likely to make higher highs in coming weeks. 1375 area or 50R key support for the bulls. Chart 5.

Support: 1383 (5/9L, 5/1L), 1374-5 (50R 4/15L to 5/2H), 1370 (4/22L), 1362-3 (61R), 1348-50 (76R & level).

Resistance: 1398-1400 (38R 5/6H to 5/9L & level), 1403 (5/8H), 1408 (61R), 1422-24 (5/6H, 5/2H).

Swing trading
Pattern of week is up Monday and maybe strong, Tuesday mixed, Wednesday dropping down to form key low, Thursday rebound up, Friday up early.
Most bullish scenario is low of week very early on Monday with big rally, so any weakness Tuesday or Wednesday still above Monday's low; then up and higher highs Thursday and high of week on Friday.
Mixed scenario is rally Monday, then coming back down Tuesday and Wednesday to double bottom, then lift up Thursday and Friday.
Bearish scenario is high of week on Monday down to lower lows Wednesday, then rebound up to lower highs Thursday and Friday.
Prefer mixed scenario but as usual with watch price action and adjust for news. Bullish scenario could win if oil starts coming down.

Long term view
Bullish; expecting market up into early June.
Next dip 5/13-14, then up.

Time EDT	Ts	3Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T+/++				from 4:20 am
9:30 AM	6T+
9:30 AM	4Tm
9:34 AM		3T+?			to 10:08
9:50 AM			4H+?
10:02 AM	4T++
10:08 AM		3T-			to 10:28
10:28 AM		3T+			to 10:58
10:35 AM			4H++	*
10:39 AM			4H+
10:46 AM			4H+
10:49 AM			4H-
11:03 AM			4H-
11:24 AM		3T-			to 12:00
11:34 AM	4T+?
11:59 AM	4T-
12:00 PM		3T+			to 12:30
12:04 PM			4H+
12:27 PM			4H+
12:28 PM	4T+?
12:30 PM		3T++			to 1:01
12:55 PM			4H++	*
1:09 PM			4H-
1:24 PM			4H-
1:25 PM			5H-
1:29 PM			6H+?
2:10 PM	4T-
2:22 PM			4H+
2:35 PM	4T+
2:42 PM			5H+
2:47 PM	7T-			*
2:47 PM		3T+			to 3:22
2:51 PM			4H+
2:54 PM	4T-?
3:22 PM		3T-			to 3:32
3:35 PM			4H--	*
3:44 PM			4H--	*
3:49 PM			4H+