Trading
Morning was limited range and a little choppy; just 5 point range in first 30 minutes was sign just to wait to 2:15 to trade. If short at 10:00 stopped or scratch, ditto 10:16. Long 10:31 with double bottom holding then made up for losses, especially watching 76R that nailed top. Short 11:38 good for a couple more points. Real action came after 2:15. Markets topped right on 138P as noted so watching for decline into 2:22, good for 5+ points for aggressive traders. Same dip could have been used to buy in. Best trade seeing 2:44 lower high and short with macd negative at 2:49 good for 10-15 points. Possible re-entry short 3:50 for another few points.
Call - "LOD: close; HOD: 2:10-20"
Result - Bingo.
Call - "Whatever the language or initial spike, watch for sharp drop into 2:22. Lift into 2:44."
Result - Key low 2:23, key high 2:44.
Call - "Watch 76Rs and 138Ps on ABCD projection targets."
Result - In a flash ES reached intraday 161 but body of candle right on 138P at top. LOD 138P down exact. See charts.
Midday call - "# 2:24 3T either no effect or -., runs to 3:14."
Result - End of this 3T nailed the low.
* * * * * * *
FOMC games; speculative bias for down after release.
News: 7:00 MBA Purchase Apps; 8:30 GDP, Employment Close; 9:45 NAPM Chicago; 10:30 Oil; 2:15 FOMC
Earnings reports continue.
Trading
General notes: "Trend is your friend" even more true with intraday moves frequently lasting 1-3 hours and swing 3-5 days instead of the usual 2-3. Price action slow and steady so simply go with the trend until it really changes.
Macd signals should work well today with markets trading in wider range. If it starts plunging just short; support levels may not hold. Watch 76Rs and 138Ps on ABCD projection targets.
Markets often move up in front of FOMC, but this meeting not the same as recent rounds. Market is hoping for the 25 bp cut which will probably happen. Since this is entirely expected, market will move on language. It is unlikely that Ben will indicate his next move without 'the information' so most likely scenario is 25 bp and bland language. Perhaps initial up but this should fizzle since already priced in. If no cut, sharper sell-off.
Bullish scenario is that market likes the cut and language and spikes up, dips at 2:22, then rallies after 2:24 into 2:44+.
Bearish scenario is the markets drop hard into 2:22, some recovery up into 2:44, then down again into close.
Movement
Overnight conditions mixed; key change at 2:10 am.
Down into about 4:00 am to 5:20 am. If noticeable up after this period passes, then more bullish for Wednesday.
Expecting down on open.
Watch movement into 9:43. If clearly up, then more chance of up after 11:14.
Down after 9:44, but lift into 9:48.
Additional down pressure after 9:52 with the 3T-.
Expecting down after 10:29.
Lift into 10:36, down into 10:51-11:00.
Key change (5T) at 11:14, expecting up but not high confidence. Possibly slow.
Up possible with 3T in play from 11:16 to 11:46.
Down after 12:26.
Chance of up after 1:20, but watch for drop into 1:55.
Drop right at 2:12.
Whatever the language or initial spike, watch for sharp drop into 2:22.
If market likes the news, possible up due to 3T+ starting at 2:24 in play to 3:14.
Main cycle down after 2:32, but 3T+ could win.
Lift into 2:44.
Down after 3:17 and possibly strong.
Lift up at 3:36, but additional down pressure from 3:34.
Down again after 3:44 into close.
Guess-pectations
LOD: close; key lows 10:51-11:00; 1:17-20; 2:22* (possible LOD).
HOD: 2:10-20; key highs 9:48, 10:36, 2:44-3:14 (bullish HOD), 3:36.
Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.
Charts & prices
Daily SPX fell back very close to the long term trendline and key resistance of the August 07 close and November lows. With FOMC chance for spike up but speculative scenario is more of retracement before the next rally up. Chart 1.
NDX again leading to upside. Not expecting the same strength for the rest of the week, but tech again leads the rally starting 5/5. Chart 2.
Hourly ES topped right on a 100 ABCD and has now broken the supporting trendline; this should lead to more of a retracement of recent gains. Chart 3.
Support: 1384 (61R 4/24L to 4/28H) 1373-75 (38R 4/15L to 4/28H & level), 1364 (50R), 1355 (61R).
Resistance: 1404 (4/28H), 1418 SPX (big 50R), ES 1417-18 (ABCDs), 1425-26 (level, 1/14 gap).
Swing trading
Speculative bias for down after 2:15 with lower lows compared to Tuesday.
Preferred scenario remains that low of week forms Thursday or Friday depending on the various news reports.
Long term view
Next move down into 4/29-5/2, but for longer term trades this is a dip to be bought.
Preferred scenario low 4/29-5/2 and higher low 5/8-9, then up.
Market continuing rally 5/10 with market and up into early June.
| Time EDT | Ts | 3Ts | Hs | C | Comment |
| 9:30 AM | 8T- | ||||
| 9:30 AM | 7Tm | from 2:10 am | |||
| 9:30 AM | 6T- | ||||
| 9:30 AM | 4T- | ||||
| 9:43 AM | 4H+? | ||||
| 9:44 AM | 4T- | ||||
| 9:48 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 9:52 AM | 3T- | to 10:21 | |||
| 10:29 AM | 4T-? | ||||
| 10:36 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 10:51 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 11:00 AM | 5H- | ||||
| 11:14 AM | 5T+? | ||||
| 11:16 AM | 3T+ | to 11:46 | |||
| 11:38 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 12:06 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 12:26 PM | 4T- | ||||
| 12:47 PM | 3T- | to 1:17 | |||
| 1:17 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 1:20 PM | 4T+? | ||||
| 1:55 PM | 4H-? | ||||
| 2:12 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 2:22 PM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 2:24 PM | 3T+? | to 3:14 | |||
| 2:32 PM | 4T-? | ||||
| 2:44 PM | 4H+ | * | |||
| 3:17 PM | 4T- | * | |||
| 3:34 PM | 3T- | to close | |||
| 3:36 PM | 4H+ | * | |||
| 3:44 PM | 5T- |
