I often don't trade before 10:00 news, but down on the dot of 9:30 and 4TA- gave chance for quick short. Market rallied after 10:30; buying the breakout was a good trade but direction not forecasted so not tallying here. Watching to short midday as market turned down in front of 12:27 triggered at 12:12 and good for 5-7 points especially if hanging in for 1:04 key low. Looking to buy with breakout right at 1:40 good for a few points but this failed on either negative news or oil or both. Short 2:24 with macd down and markets plunging into the 5H- and 3:04 4H-- with LOD forming just after; good for 5-10 points. No strong reason to buy for last 30 minutes but if so no loss.
Call - "Markets likely to be volatile of next several trading sessions moving back and forth on news."
Result - Down then up on Bernanke; selloff on oil and possible Merrill layoffs. News will always move the market, but the next several trading days are even more prone to chop around on the headline of the moment.
Call - "Down again with key change (5T) after 12:27. Action may slow." Midday update "Key lows 1:04 & 3:04."
Result - Markets traded lower and spiked down at 1:04 with key low just afterwards. Another plunge down at 3:04 with LOD at 3:08.
I didn't emphasize the 5H- in the write-up but anyone looking at the sheet saw 5H- at 2:52 and then 4H-- at 3:04.
* Midday update *Market down then up on Ben comments.
Better chance of up after 11:51 and surge higher into 11:54.
Down again with key change (5T) after 12:27. Action may slow.
# Expecting down with this 5T-, but without major catalyst could be just slow & sideways.
# 1:29 remains 4T-?
Significant change to positive on larger cycle (8T) at 1:44; from here on, markets can rally.
If this kicks in, strong move higher possible.
Key low 2:08.
Up after 2:32.
If up after 1:44, then even additional up after 2:37.
Key low 3:04.
Mixed cycles last half hour; again if up from 1:44 likely rally into close.
LOD - Expected in at 10:00.
HOD - Currently 10:50. Chance of higher highs from 11:51 to 12:27, and again in afternoon after 1:44, especially from 2:32 to 3:43.
Swing - Mixed signals next 2 days, but this market is being bought. Positive claims data Thursday will bring in more buyers hoping for positive news again on Friday. However, if data weak then market will just as easily drop. Volatility expected to continue on news but the larger trend is up.
* * * * * * *
If you are new to my forecasts, please review the Guide posted here:
http://jpearlquicktrader.blogspot.com/2007/03/quicktrader-guide.html
Down to 1:45, then chance of rally.
Trading
General notes: Trade breakouts both long and short; watch for the quick fast move on good volume with strong momentum. Get out when it fades.
If tech holds up positive, then less down pressure for Wednesday.
Again watch trend channels for key highs and lows. Good example Tuesday off lows 10:15, 11:45 and 1:00; off highs 10:00, 11:00 and 12:25.
Market should move in a more limited range fixed trend channel; bias towards down. Buy any breakout up after 1:45.
News: 10:00 Factory orders; 10:30 Oil
Also: Ben talking 9:30 am to Senate
Movement
Mixed conditions overnight, but strong down after 3:30 am into 5:15 am.
Down pressure resumes after 8:00 am that lasts throughout Wednesday's session.
Additional down cycle (4TA-) in play right from open to the main down event at 11:17.
Chance of up with minor 3T cycle, and also chance of up after 9:46.
Negative conditions for 10:00 news; market easily going down into 9:54-10:04.
In any scenario, down after 10:30.
Expecting down after 11:06 and possible sharp drop into 11:17.
Markets may recover somewhat after this passes, but upside still should be limited.
Better chance of up after 11:51 and surge higher into 11:54.
Down again with key change (5T) after 12:27. Action may slow.
Either way after 1:29.
Significant change to positive on larger cycle (8T) at 1:44; from here on, markets can rally.
If this kicks in, strong move higher possible.
Key low 2:08.
Up after 2:32.
If up after 1:44, then even additional up after 2:37.
Key low 3:04.
Mixed cycles last half hour; again if up from 1:44 likely rally into close.
Guess-pectations
LOD: 1:45; key lows 9:54-10:04, 11:17*, 12:10, 1:04, 2:08, 3:04*.
HOD: first hour; key highs 9:50, 11:35-11:54*, 3:43 to close (bullish HOD).
Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.
Charts & prices
Daily SPX has now made a higher low and higher high, arguably the first time since December. Tuesday's move also busted the long term TL from December highs. However, it still faces resistance from the more recent TL of the January and February highs. If rally is for real, first high of 1359 will act as key support. ABCD in play so looking for minimum of 1391 by 4/14 before rally fades. Chart 1.
NDX also breaking out and poised to go higher before the move is complete. Chart 2.
Showing same ABCD on hourly ES chart. Chart 3.
If Wednesday heads down as expected, watching Fibs from Tuesday's open and 3/31L. Chart 4.
Support: 1359-61 (38R 4/2L to H, 3/24H), 1355 (50R), 1349-51* (61R & 38R of 3/31L to 4/2H), 1342 (50R 3/31L), 1335 (61R), 1327-28 (76R and gap).
Resistance: 1372 (4/2H), 1383 (2/28 gap), 1391 (2/27H), 1400 (2/1H).
Swing trading
Markets likely to be volatile of next several trading sessions moving back and forth on news. Larger trend is up.
Preferred scenario is dip into 4/2-4. Where low comes in will depend on news, degree of rally Wednesday afternoon, Thursday claims & ISM, then Friday's employment report.
Stronger up periods are Wednesday after 1:44 to close; then also more positive overnight & into Thursday session until about 2:30. If Thursday claims data positive then markets will jump with anticipation of positive Employment data.
Most bullish scenario is dip Wednesday morning forming key low, then up Wednesday afternoon, continuing up Thursday and then going up on Friday's employment data.
Bearish scenario is down hard Wednesday with not much afternoon rally, limited recovery Thursday, then down on Friday's employment report with low of the week on Friday near close.
Most likely is some combination of the above depending on data.
Long term view
Looking for dip 4/2-4, but looking for higher targets to hit by 4/14.
Next week leaning bullish, especially into 4/9; somewhat weaker afterwards.
Big up 4/14, but then down most of the rest of that week.
Low 4/21.
Down hard 4/29-5/2. This remains a key low, but the further markets get from 3/17L, the more likely it becomes a higher low.
Very important long term low 5/2-9.
Big, high confidence rally high confidence after 5/10 with market off to races into early June.
| Time EDT | Ts | 3Ts | Hs | C | Comment |
| 9:30 AM | 8T- | ||||
| 9:30 AM | 7T- | from 4/1 8:00 am | |||
| 9:30 AM | 6Tm | from 7:05 am | |||
| 9:30 AM | 5Tm | from 7:58 am | |||
| 9:30 AM | 4TA- | to 11:17 | |||
| 9:31 AM | 3T+ | * | to 9:50 | ||
| 9:46 AM | 4T+ | * | |||
| 9:50 AM | 3T+? | to 10:18 | |||
| 9:54 AM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 10:04 AM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 10:28 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 10:30 AM | 4T-- | * | |||
| 10:30 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 10:48 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 11:06 AM | 4T-? | ||||
| 11:17 AM | 5A-- | ** | |||
| 11:35 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 11:42 AM | 3T- | to 12:11 | |||
| 11:51 AM | 4T+ | * | |||
| 11:54 AM | 4H++ | * | |||
| 12:10 PM | 4H-- | ||||
| 12:27 PM | 5T- | * | |||
| 12:46 PM | 3T- | to 1:06 | |||
| 12:59 PM | 4H+ | ||||
| 1:04 PM | 4H-- | ||||
| 1:06 PM | 3T+ | to 2:01 | |||
| 1:24 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 1:29 PM | 4T-? | ||||
| 1:44 PM | 8T+ | * | |||
| 2:08 PM | 4H-- | ||||
| 2:32 PM | 4T+ | * | |||
| 2:37 PM | 3T+? | to 3:38 | |||
| 2:52 PM | 5H-? | ||||
| 3:04 PM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 3:38 PM | 3T+? | to close | |||
| 3:43 PM | 4T- | ||||
| 3:50 PM | 4H- |
