Monday 4/14

Trading
First hour range of 6 points and day after big range Friday spells trouble. Tough to squeeze points from 10 point range. If short at 10:10 with macd negative, scratch. Next long not confirmed by forecast. Short 11:12 since 7T negative was good for a few points. Contrary to usual, best moves over lunch today. Per midday update, market mostly down in period 12:49 to 3:16 so if taking this trade in at 1:17 and either out with a few points or holding past 1:58 and out with 4-5 points. Or if skipping lunchtime trade (justified) entry at 2:50 good for a couple points or scratch.

Call - "Expecting lift into 10:20; if so then more likely up after 10:55 (see above). If clearly down into 10:20, then 10:55 also likely down."
Result - New low at 10:24 meant afternoon more bearish rest of day. Although lunchtime sneaked up to form slightly higher highs, best trading on short side.

Midday call - "Secondary cycle sometimes in play for OE weeks points to down after 12:49 all the way to 3:16."
Result - Pretty close here with key high 12:55, slightly higher high 1:12, then down to low at 3:14 with slightly lower low 1 bar at 3:30.










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Rebound.

General notes: Trade breakouts both long and short; watch for the quick fast move on good volume with strong momentum. Get out when it fades.
Markets can rally today and maybe big. This is the case regardless of news. If markets start going up with shallow dips, buy in.
Direction indicator 8T overall positive.
Movement 7T starts mixed, then very key change at 10:55 which is the shot at the rally. This is an expected scenario (75%) so will need to confirm; if this 7T goes down then Monday will probably close on lows.
Best advance clue will be market movement into 10:20; if up then 10:55 7T likely up and markets can be up big from 10:55 all the way to 2:00+. If movement into 10:20 is clearly down then 7T probably down as well.
Highly preferred bullish scenario is up in globex, dip down into 10:00, strong up after 10:55 into 2:00+, then down after 2:35 but markets mostly maintaining gains.
Bearish scenario is down into 10:00 and continuing down afterwards, no lift from the 7T so down to about 1:00, counter-trend rally from 1:00 to 2:00, then down again to close on lows.
In general, 3Ts and 4Hs may have extra effect for OE week.

News: 8:30 Retail Sales; 10:00 Inventories
Also: 3:15 FOMC talk

Movement
Expecting up on globex. Watch action from Sunday 10:10 pm which is the start of the 7T.
Earnings moving market throughout the week so if you want to know who is reporting check the calendar at Briefing.

Expecting up on open with positive 3Ts in play.
Down into 10:00.
Key change (5T) right at 10:00; down pressure.
Expecting lift into 10:20; if so then more likely up after 10:55 (see above). If clearly down into 10:20, then 10:55 also likely down.
Down 10:27 into 10:49.
Key change (7T) at 10:55; on a good day, big rally will get going here.
Lift into 11:14.
Slowdown after 11:50, but probably top coming at 11:55.

Expecting up after 12:27 and up into 12:49.
Stronger up after 12:54 with big lift into 1:58.
Mixed after 2:17, then key change (5T) to down after 2:35.
Sharper down after 3:30 but if bulls have taken charge this might mean just sideways.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 10:00-10; key lows 12:01, 12:27-41, 3:48-close.
HOD: 1:58; key highs 10:14-10:20?, 11:14, 11:55*.

Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.

Charts & prices
It helps to look at the weekly chart once in a while to see the bigger perspective; trend clearly down. Chart 1.

Showing 2 Fib levels on the daily; one is 10/11H to 1/23L which rebounded up to 38R, then back down to lower lows. Then next is same 10/11H to 3/17L which just stopped cold at 38R. Chart 2.

NDX made a healthier rebound on this recent rally but still stopped right at 38R. Chart 3.

If Monday rebounds as expected, market will reference Fibs from the last two highs. Chart 4.

Completed ABCD down right at 100 exact is another reason for lift on Monday, but if this does not come through then lower levels will be in play. Chart 5.

Support: 1321-3 (4/1 gap & 50R 3/17L to 4/7H), 1313 (3/31L), 1307-8 (61R), 1295-1300 (3/20L & level, 1279 (3/18 gap).

Resistance: 1346 (38R 4/10H to 4/11L0, 1350-52 (4/11H & level), 1360-3 (4/11 gap & 50R 4/7H to 4/11L), 1366-69 (61R & 4/10H), 1389 (4/7H).

Swing trading
Preferred bullish scenario for week is big rally Monday with gains extending into Tuesday, then down Wednesday to Friday.
Bearish scenario is that no rally comes through on Monday and market down most of the week.

Long term view
Market so far failing at key resistance with long term 38R on both SPX and NDX.
Expecting lower highs 4/14-15, then down.
Further down week of 4/21.
Down hard 4/29-5/2. This move down is a retracement of rally from 3/17L to 4/7H, a full retest to form a triple bottom or panic break down to lower lows.
Very important long term low 5/2-9.
Big, high confidence rally after 5/10 with market off to races into early June.

Time EDT	Ts	3Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	8T+
9:30 AM	7Tm				from 4/13 10:10 pm
9:30 AM	6T+
9:30 AM	4Tm				from 9:14
9:30 AM		3T+?			to 9:56
9:39 AM			4H+
9:56 AM		3T+			to 10:27
10:00 AM	5T-
10:00 AM			4H--	*
10:05 AM	6T+
10:14 AM			4H+
10:20 AM			4H+?
10:27 AM		3T-			to 10:55
10:49 AM			4H-
10:55 AM	7T+?
10:55 AM		3T+?			to 11:24
11:14 AM			4H++	*
11:50 AM	4T-
11:55 AM			4H++
12:01 PM			4H-
12:27 PM	4T+?
12:41 PM			4H-
12:49 PM		3T-			to 1:14
12:49 PM			4H+
12:54 PM	4T+			*
1:50 PM		3T+?			to 2:20
1:58 PM			4H++	**
2:17 PM	4Tm
2:35 PM	5T-
3:00 PM			4H+
3:26 PM		3T-			to close
3:30 PM	4T-			*
3:48 PM			5H-