Trading
No news at 10:00, but still market chopped around for first 30 minutes. If short from open to catch the 5H-, couple points. Short again 10:07 good for a few points. Macd up and TL on day busted to upside at 10:50, but since forecast bias was mostly down here will not tally. Traders watching the 3T+s saw up from 10:35 and top at 11:31 with 4H+. If short 11:47 with macd down stopped out as 12:05 5T went strongly up. 12:38 3T- didn't pull down, but the next one at 1:53 sure did. Jumping on short with macd down at 1:50 good for a few points, then watching the 3T+ at 2:29 nailed the low. Long 2:40 scratch, but short 3:03 with down hits on the way good for 5-7 points if watching the 3:42 4H-- for the low.
Call - "LOD: 3:42 (if ee # negative); key lows 9:37, 10:20-35 (possible session LOD if ee # positive)"
Result - EE#s didn't look positive to me, but LOD did come in at 10:37.
Call - "Down again after 3:09 into key lows at 3:42."
Result - Pretty good move here and key lows 3:46.
Midday call - "As I type market at 1372.50 which was price at open. I think good chance of same price at close."
Result - 4:00 close 1371.75.
Here are note from Insight wrap on price levels.
7T started at 2:00 am at 1372.75. This area acted as key resistance for the first 30 minutes, then again at 11:10 & 11:20. Finally broke up at 11:30. Dipped briefly below with noon lows, then held and big up. I am again pointing out that the price at the start of the 7T, even if from globex, often acts as key support / resistance. Resistance once taken out becomes support. This was also the area of the first lows near 3:35-3:30. Showing this 7T price level with the horizontal line on 1 min ES chart.
Price. Morning low was 76 ID ABCD, from 8:55 globex high, larger 100 ABCD from Thursday pm high (see chart) and also 76R from Thurs low. I thought markets would test Thursday lows but when this held and macd turned up, had to scram from put. Rally formed 100 ID ABCD which was also 100 ABCD from Thursday, also shown on chart. This was followed by 138 down pattern which also formed another 76R from ID L to H. The reason I am mentioning the 76s is that this was in the 2nd line of trading notes. All 3 patterns shown on charts 1 2 and 3.
* * * * * * *
Big move pre-market. Session leans down.
Trading
General notes: Trade breakouts both long and short; watch for the quick fast move on good volume with strong momentum. Get out when it fades.
Markets again more easily dropping today. Watch 76Rs and if indexes start going down, support may not hold.
Directional indicator weakens after 7:50 am and turns more negative after 10:34 am.
Movement indicator 7T is positive from 2:00 am and remains in play throughout Friday.
Mixed conditions often mean mixed markets; price will show who is winning.
Bullish scenario is up at 8:30 on better than expected data, partial gap fill, rally to about 10:30; down to 11:30, then resumed up. Slower after 12:05.
Bearish scenario is down at 8:30 on negative news, partile gap fill, then resumed down after 10:30.
News: 8:30 Employment; 3:00 Treasury Strips
Movement
This week both ISM Mfg & Svs have been weak but better than expected and markets have rallied. Possible that pattern repeats for employment yet Google and Merrill layoffs in the same week warn of deeper problems.
Overnight conditions mostly positive, but turn more negative after about 7:50 am Friday.
First move down into 9:37.
Chance of up after 9:42 and possible strong lift into 9:59.
Down after 10:10.
Expecting up after 10:16, but if news very negative on day this may invert down.
In any scenario, key low 10:20.
Significant general down pressure after about 10:34 (may take several minutes to kick in).
Down after 10:49.
Up and maybe strong after 11:31, but another sharp drop into 11:43.
Key change (5T) after 12:05; slower action or down. Inversion only if very positive news and NDX rallying big.
Down after 1:04, and sharp drop into 1:35.
Additional cycle gives chance of up anytime after 1:46 to 2:15, but this isn't a high confidence strong move.
Either way after 2:02 on the regular cycle; will have clues by midday.
Down into 3:04.
Down again after 3:09 into key lows at 3:42.
Up 3:43 to close.
Guess-pectations
LOD: 3:42 (if ee # negative); key lows 9:37, 10:20-35 (possible session LOD if ee # positive), 11:43*, 1:35, 3:04.
HOD: 10:10 (bearish); key highs 9:59, 10:29, 11:31, 12:03 (bullish HOD) 2:15.
Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.
Charts & prices
In recent forecasts, I have mentioned that 3/17L, 3/24H, 3/31L and 4/2H hit a 61 ABCD. 61s don't usually stop a move, which is one reason I am looking for higher highs either Friday or next week. However, this level also happens to be exactly be 38R of the entire move down from 10/11/07H to 3/17/08L which does have potential to stop a rally. Chart 1.
NDX referencing the December high, but also at a key 38R. Chart 2.
Showing the ABCD on ES hourly chart 3.
If market down instead, then Fibs from 3/31 will be in play on chart 4.
Support: 1360 (4/3L), 1354* (38R from 3/31L), 1346 (50R), 1338 (4/1 open), 1330 (3/31H), 1313.
Resistance: 1380 (4/2H), 1383 (2/28 gap), 1391 (2/27H), 1400 (2/1H), 1417 (ABCD 100).
Swing trading
Friday moving on Employment data which will likely make or break the recent rally.
Leaning bullish, but if the big 38R (shown on daily chart above) stops the move then it stops the move.
Next week mixed; if Friday up then higher highs possible all the way to 4/14-15.
If Friday down big, then any up moves early next week may not be enough to get back to ES 1380.
In any scenario, expecting up on Monday.
Long term view
Market currently at key resistance. If ES gets above 1380, then move to at least 1392 and possibly 1417 by 4/15.
Next week more bullish to 4/9, then weaker.
Up 4/14, but then down most of the rest of that week.
Low 4/21.
Down hard 4/29-5/2. This remains a key low, but the further markets get from 3/17L, the more likely it becomes a higher low. Still some chance of panic and lower lows.
Very important long term low 5/2-9.
Big, high confidence rally high confidence after 5/10 with market off to races into early June.
| Time EDT | Ts | 3Ts | Hs | C | Comment |
| 9:30 AM | 8Tm | ||||
| 9:30 AM | 7T+ | from 2:00 am | |||
| 9:30 AM | 6T- | tom 5:45 am | |||
| 9:30 AM | 4T- | from 7:52 | |||
| 9:33 AM | 4Tm | ||||
| 9:37 AM | 5H- | ||||
| 9:42 AM | 3T+ | to 10:10 | |||
| 9:46 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 9:59 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 10:10 AM | 3T- | to 10:35 | |||
| 10:16 AM | 4T+? | ||||
| 10:20 AM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 10:29 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 10:34 AM | 8T- | ||||
| 10:35 AM | 3T+ | to 11:07 | |||
| 10:40 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 10:49 AM | 4T- | ||||
| 11:31 AM | 4T+ | ||||
| 11:31 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 11:43 AM | 4H-- | ** | |||
| 12:03 PM | 3T-? | to 12:38 | |||
| 12:05 PM | 5T-? | * | |||
| 12:38 PM | 3T-- | to 1:28 | |||
| 12:56 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 12:59 PM | 4H+ | ||||
| 1:04 PM | 4T- | * | |||
| 1:35 PM | 4H-- | ** | |||
| 1:46 PM | 4TA+ | ||||
| 1:53 PM | 3T- | to 2:29 | |||
| 2:02 PM | 4Tm | ||||
| 2:15 PM | 5A+ | ||||
| 2:19 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 2:29 PM | 3T+ | to 3:30 | |||
| 2:57 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 3:04 PM | 5H- | ||||
| 3:09 PM | 4T- | * | |||
| 3:30 PM | 3T+ | to close | |||
| 3:42 PM | 4H-- | ** | |||
| 3:43 PM | 4T+ | * |
