Trading
Had to adjust to long bias with key low at 9:35 and 7T at 9:33. Buying in with macd up at 10:56 good for 3-5 points. Lunchtime trading on limited range day usually not advised, but markets held 38R down at 12:20 and headed back up to break out to new highs. Market turned down on the down of 1:32 4T, if short at 1:44 with macd or probably better execution 2:00 with break of low then good for 2-4+ points. Looking for long after 2:19 stopped out if in at 2:32; quick reversal down made it back, then long at 3:21 good for another few points. Watching the 3Ts nailed the 2nd high and gave a quick short opportunity for ES scalpers.
Direction off today on a few Ts (Monday's tricky sometimes) but key turns at 9:35 (7T 9:33), 12:44 (4T exact), 1:31 (4T 1:32).
Call - "Chance of up after 10:40."
Result - Low 10:48, then breakout up.
Call - "Expecting down after 1:32."
Result - High 1:31.
Each 3T-- from 11:50 to 12:19, 2:45 to 3:15, and 3:46 to close took market down. For ES scalpers these moves alone worth several points.
* * * * * * *
Down, maybe hard.
Trading
General notes: Trade breakouts both long and short (probably more short); watch for the quick fast move on good volume with strong momentum. Get out when it fades.
Watch tech after 9:33 am; if that goes down, market will follow.
After 9:33 am for the rest of the day, some kind of fixed trend channel should help nail lows and retracement tops.
If markets go down, watch 38Rs up for the counter-trend tops & short entries.
Directional indicator 8T is down.
Movement indicator turns negative and perhaps strongly so (7T--) after 9:33 am. If markets start rolling over here, big down day. If there happens to be extremely positive tech news, then this could invert but not expected.
News: 9:45 NAPM Chicago
Also: 12:00 FOMC pres talk on housing foreclosures
Movement
Conditions negative for Sunday evening globex open. Selling could get started right here.
Possible CIT about 1:55 am. If market continues down or even accelerates, additional bearish bias for Monday.
Key change (7T) right at 9:33 that sets the tone for the rest of the day.
Expecting down and maybe hard; if markets roll over here Monday can go down big.
Only chance of inversion up is extremely positive news from tech.
Conditions negative for 9:45 news release.
Down hard into 10:01.
Chance of up after 10:40.
Possible down pressure on minor cycle (3T) after 10:51, and drop into 10:56.
Either way after 11:37, but larger move is down and maybe hard into 11:45.
Down continuing after 11:50, and sharp drop into12:04.
Expecting down after 12:44.
Lift into 1:00, then down into 1:12.
Down into 1:23.
Expecting down after 1:32.
Key change (5T) at 2:19, can go either way. Either selling accelerates or markets try to lift.
In any scenario, down into 2:27.
Even if markets have tried to lift after 2:19, down pressure after 2:45.
Sharp drop into 3:12.
Strong down 3:46 to close.
Guess-pectations
LOD: close; key lows 10:01, 10:56, 11:45*, 12:04*, 1:23*, 2:27* (optimistic LOD), 3:12*
HOD: 9:30-10:00; key highs 10:30, 1:00, 2:09.
Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.
Charts & prices
Most people recognize housing bubble & bust at least as bad as tech in 2000; so far market at a big 38R on the monthly and weekly charts, but this bear market has a long way to go. Chart 1.
The last time SPX weekly stopped at 38R up was the 2/1 high. Usually when a retracement stops cold at 38R up, lower lows follow. Chart 2.
Same Fib shown on the daily; trend is down. Chart 3.
If SPX breaks 3/17 lows, ABCD patterns point to 1200. Looking for this target to hit by the long term low date near 5/1. Chart 4.
NDX in a similar Fib picture; NDX highly susceptible to plunging Monday to Wednesday morning, but then expecting tech to lead rallies going forward. Chart 5.
Hourly ES has retraced more than 38R from 3/17L; usually this means a drop to at least 50R at 1309. This level may put up a fight, but markets easily down to 61R at 1297. Chart 6.
Support: 1309-11 (50R 3/17L to 3/24H), 1297-1300 (61R & level), 1282 (76R & 3/17 gap), 1257 (3/17L).
Resistance: 1332 (38R 3/24H to 3/28L) 1337 (50R) 1343 (61R), 1350 (3/26H).
Swing trading
Severe down pressure into early Wednesday.
Possible market panic, especially if oil spikes up out of control.
Expected pattern on week is down and possibly heavy on Monday; chance of bounce Tuesday with beginning of month, but otherwise regular signals pointing down; very sharp drop overnight into early Wednesday and continuing down hard in regular session, then big snapback rally after 1:30 pm; Thursday leaning down; Friday moving on employment report but conditions point down after 10:30 am.
Optimistic scenario is down Monday, bounce Tuesday with higher close, down Wednesday but up after 1:30 pm, quiet Thursday, then up Friday with employment report with regular session weak with overall sideways. I consider this unlikely.
Preferred bearish scenario is down hard Monday, some bounce early Tuesday that caves in to down by close, very sharp drop early Wednesday but recovering in afternoon, down Thursday. Speculative bias for positive employment report but then weak action during session. This would create the low if week on Wednesday if that afternoon can rally, with some chance of low on Thursday. If employment data comes in negative, then Friday will also tank and will create the low of the week.
Long term view
3/24 high, moving down and possibly hard into 4/2-4 lows.
Mixed markets the following week of 4/7.
Up 4/14, but down most of the rest of that week.
Low 4/21.
Down hard 4/29-5/2; expecting lower long term lows here.
If markets come back to SPX 1270 area (tested twice, then mildly broken but saved) markets will be down to 1200-20 faster than you can say 'emergency rate cut.'
Very important long term low 5/2-9.
Big, high confidence rally high confidence after 5/10 with market off to races into early June.
| Time EDT | Ts | 3Ts | Hs | C | Comment |
| 9:30 AM | 8T- | ||||
| 9:30 AM | 7T- | from 4:40 am | |||
| 9:30 AM | 6Tm | ||||
| 9:30 AM | 4T- | ||||
| 9:33 AM | 7T-- | * | |||
| 9:39 AM | 3T+? | to 9:58 | |||
| 9:58 AM | 3T-? | to 10:26 | |||
| 10:01 AM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 10:14 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 10:30 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 10:36 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 10:40 AM | 4T+? | ||||
| 10:51 AM | 3T-? | to 11:22 | |||
| 10:56 AM | 4H-- | ||||
| 11:32 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 11:37 AM | 4Tm | ||||
| 11:38 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 11:45 AM | 5H-- | * | |||
| 11:50 AM | 3T-- | * | to 12:19 | ||
| 11:53 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 12:04 PM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 12:44 PM | 4T-? | ||||
| 12:53 PM | 3T- | to 1:13 | |||
| 1:00 PM | 4H+ | ||||
| 1:02 PM | 3T- | to 1:32 | |||
| 1:12 PM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 1:13 PM | 3T+ | to 2:09 | |||
| 1:23 PM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 1:32 PM | 4T- | ||||
| 1:37 PM | 4H-- | ||||
| 1:52 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 2:19 PM | 5Tm | ||||
| 2:24 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 2:27 PM | 5H-- | * | |||
| 2:45 PM | 3T-- | * | to 3:15 | ||
| 3:12 PM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 3:29 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 3:46 PM | 3T-- | * | to close | ||
| 3:59 PM | 4H- |
