Best trade of day buying morning breakout when no sign of fill. After 10:00 just slightly up trend channel. Short 11:02 stopped out but reversing long by 11:26 good for a few points depending on exit. Although macd down crosses didn't work, then move down into 3:10 was a good score if entered with break of TL in play from 10:30 (10:30L, 11:10L, 2:12L) at 2:48; few points possible.
Call - "Watch price again at 11:03; if clearly up for a few minutes after 11:05, then more chance of up into 1:06."
Result - Low 11:09, then up into HOD at 12:51.
Call - " Key low 3:10; bearish LOD here."
Result - Not the LOD and markets did go lower, but a fast drop down from 2:45 into 3:08.
* * * * * * *
First move down, then chance of up in afternoon.
Trading
General notes: Trade breakouts both long and short; watch for the quick fast move on good volume with strong momentum. Get out when it fades.
For Monday especially watching 61-76Rs with potential for V moves (down then up).
Monday session starts down that will at least retrace some of Friday's gain. Key lows 11:32-11:59.
Bullish scenario on day is recovery up after 11:59 with close hear highs.
Bearish scenario is further down to 1:06 or even as late as 3:10, then up.
News: 10:00 Existing home sales
Movement
Conditions mixed for Sunday evening open.
Key change after 10:10 pm; more likely down into 12:20 am Monday and again into 4:00 am.
If markets up after these pass, then this increases bullish outcome for Monday.
General positive right at 9:30 may help lift indexes near open.
First move either way; event at 9:30 may have spillover.
Watching for down anytime after 10:00 into the strong negative event at 11:32.
If 10:20 4T is stable or even some up, then more chance of up after 11:59 for the rest of the day.
If 10:20 4T clearly down, then more chance of LOD at 3:10.
Regardless, indexes most likely moving down further after 10:39 into key negative events at 11:05, 11:23 and 11:32.
Watch price again at 11:03; if clearly up for a few minutes after 11:05, then more chance of up into 1:06.
Key low 11:32, then additional down after 11:39. Expecting strong moves down on both of these events.
Key change (7T) at 11:59; chance of up. As noted above, much more likely up if markets clearly more positive after 10:20 at least for 15-20 minutes.
Another 4TA in play at the same time; if price jumps up, then overall move higher into 1:06.
If markets down after 11:59, then down into 1:06 and possibly beyond.
Chance of up after 12:19.
Strong move into 1:06; expecting up but will be watching 11:03 4TA and 11:59 4TA to confirm direction.
If up into 1:06, some softening after this passes.
Chance of up after 2:09, will have clues by midday.
Down into 2:21 and 3:03.
Up and maybe strong after 3:08.
Key low 3:10; bearish LOD here.
Guess-pectations
LOD: 11:59; key lows 9:57-10:06, 11:05, 11:23, 11:32*; 1:41, 2:04, 2:21, 3:10*.
HOD: close; key highs open-9:41, 11:48, 1:06?, 2:00.
Notes to forecast
All trade entries and exits taken on price action & technical triggers. Combine the forecast with other tools you like for winning trades.
Detailed instructions in the Guide on the blog; see upper right under "More Information."
Watch 4, 5 especially 7Ts for larger moves as well as any highlighted 5As.
3Ts and 4Hs for very short term traders and Insight clients monitoring price action for information on larger moves.
Charts & prices
Weekly SPX had an impressive save after dipping below earlier lows, but the long term trend is still down. On the weekly chart, market will have to get above 2/27H and 2/1H to have a genuine chance of trend. The point with the larger Fibs is that if market comes back down to 1270 area, then expecting a move down at least to 06 lows at 1220 and easily down to 1175 area at 50R. Chart 1. Note: lines are 200, 50 and 20 period MAs.
Daily SPX got up to 61R from 2/27H, then fell back. If market is up this week as I expect, support near 1306-1312 SPX should hold. Looking for up at least into 1357 area which is also 38R from 12/10H.
For the week, expecting NDX to bust the top TL and move up to 1790.
Hourly ES has broken out of limiting top TL in play from 2/27H. Even if Monday starts down, price should stay above this TL. Watch the upward sloping TL from 3/17L for the break. Key support at 1304-1309; if market goes any lower than this, will watch Fibs from 3/17L.
Support: 1318 (38R 3/20L to H), 1314 (50R), 1309 (61R), 1304 (76R), 1300 (level), 1295 (3/20L).
Resistance: 1332 (3/20H), 1340-43 (3/19H), 1360 (76R 2/27H to 3/17L), 1369 (2/28 gap), 1391 (2/27H).
Swing trading
Basic pattern for week: Down on Monday morning but chance of recovery in afternoon.
'Down then up' theme even more likely for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Up by close Wednesday, big up Thursday, Friday starts higher but slow action or down during most of the session.
Bullish scenario is that low of week is as early as Monday midday, then up into high of the week late Thursday or early Friday. This will be possible if both Monday and Tuesday pull the V move with afternoons up so that Wednesday forms a higher low.
Bearish scenario is that low of week forms Wednesday, then big up into Thursday and early Friday.
In either scenario, Wednesday should form a key low on the week.
Long term view
3/17 should stand as key low at least for the coming week.
Key high 3/28.
Very sharp drop 4/1-2 which will probably wipe out a lot of recent gains.
Mixed markets the following week of 4/7.
Up 4/14, but down most of the rest of that week.
Low 4/21.
Down hard 4/29-5/2; expecting lower long term lows here.
If markets come back to SPX 1270 area (tested twice, then mildly broken but saved) markets will be down to 1220 faster than you can say 'emergency rate cut.'
Very important long term low 5/2-9.
Big, high confidence rally high confidence after 5/10 with market off to races into early June.
| Time EDT | Ts | 3Ts | Hs | C | Comment |
| 9:30 AM | 8Tm | ||||
| 9:30 AM | 7Tm | from 3/23 10:10 pm | |||
| 9:30 AM | 6T+ | from 3/23 | |||
| 9:30 AM | 4Tm | ||||
| 9:30 AM | 6H+ | ||||
| 9:41 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 9:45 AM | 3T+ | to 10:06 | |||
| 9:57 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 10:00 AM | 4TA- | * | |||
| 10:06 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 10:20 AM | 4T+? | ||||
| 10:28 AM | 4H- | ||||
| 10:39 AM | 6T- | ||||
| 10:53 AM | 3T- | to 11:19 | |||
| 11:03 AM | 4TA+? | ||||
| 11:05 AM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 11:23 AM | 4H-- | * | |||
| 11:32 AM | 5A-- | ** | |||
| 11:39 AM | 4T-- | * | |||
| 11:48 AM | 4H+ | ||||
| 11:59 AM | 7T+? | ||||
| 11:59 AM | 4TA+? | ||||
| 12:19 PM | 4T+? | ||||
| 12:38 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 12:47 PM | 3T+ | to 1:21 | |||
| 1:21 PM | 3T-- | to 1:41 | |||
| 12:47 PM | 4H+ | ||||
| 12:59 PM | 5Tm | ||||
| 1:02 PM | 4H+ | ||||
| 1:06 PM | 5A+? | ||||
| 1:41 PM | 3T++ | to 2:11 | |||
| 2:04 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 2:09 PM | 4T+? | ||||
| 2:11 PM | 3T- | to 3:12 | |||
| 2:21 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 3:03 PM | 4H- | ||||
| 3:08 PM | 4T+ | * | |||
| 3:10 PM | 4H-- | * |
