Friday 12/21

Moon close to full and Sun in Sag free from Pluto - looks like Santa will come for the morning but expecting afternoon to conk out.

*Vacation note*
I will be away from markets starting 12/24/07 for the remainder of the year. Back in action for 1/2/08. Thank you for your interest in my work. Happy holidays!

If you'd like to receive the forecasts you've been reading, rates are $180 per month. This is less than 4 ES points and regular readers can see that very often the forecast is worth that much in just one trading day.

If you want to understand how I am coming up with these times and predictions, then please review the details of the Insight program posted here:

http://jpearlquicktrader.blogspot.com/2007/05/quicktrader-insight.html

To get started on either of these, simply email jpearl12 (at) gmail.com.

* * * * * * *

Santa delivered!
Results
"Perhaps-path & trading
Looking for rally; if markets up early then strong move possible into about 10:00-10:10 and then likely continuing from 10:19 to about 10:45. Down after 10:45, lift into 11:02, further down into 11:17 area. Either way after 11:21, some up after 11:45. Possible CIT near 12:25, also possible negative after 12:40. However, if 12:25 continues up and 12:40 mild, then up after 12:57. Afternoon mixed cycles; down after 2:01, key low 2:28. Down into 3:15, up after 3:35."

Best gains came pre-market. Buying with new highs about 9:45 worth a few points, then markets sideways until afternoon. 2:28 and 3:15 didn't pull markets down that much but they were the dips in uptrend.

Call -"Overnight conditions are more positive after 7:15 pm Thursday, and markets worldwide might all be on the rise. If so, momentum continuing into Friday on Wall Street as people start to feel the holiday shopping spirit for stocks as well. Another cycle turns up after about 4:30 am which also continues into the regular session. In general, looking for up but closer to session open markets may turn down after 9:15. Session open is mixed. The positive event at 10:04 could easily dominate the scene, and if so markets will simply be up!"
Result - This was pretty good.

* * * * * *

Santa's coming for the morning, but the afternoon may conk out.

Perhaps-path & trading
Looking for rally; if markets up early then strong move possible into about 10:00-10:10. Down after 10:45, lift into 11:02, further down into 11:17 area. Either way after 11:21, some up after 11:45. Possible CIT near 12:25, also possible negative after 12:40. However, if 12:25 continues up and 12:40 mild, then up after 12:57. Afternoon mixed cycles; down after 2:01, key low 2:28. Down into 3:15, up after 3:35.

News: 8:30 Personal Income; 10:00 Consumer Sentiment

8:30 GDP, Corporate Profits; Claims; 10:00 Leading Indicators; 10:30 Natural Gas

Details
Overnight conditions are more positive after 7:15 pm Thursday, and markets worldwide might all be on the rise. If so, momentum continuing into Friday on Wall Street as people start to feel the holiday shopping spirit for stocks as well. Another cycle turns up after about 4:30 am which also continues into the regular session. In general, looking for up but closer to session open markets may turn down after 9:15.

Session open is mixed. The positive event at 10:04 could easily dominate the scene, and if so markets will simply be up! If markets weaker especially if they have already started down after 9:15, then chance of lower with the 10:04 event giving a bounce. The event at 10:04 may not be 'to the minute' but will move markets in the vicinity. In any scenario, chance of up after 10:19 but down after 10:45 and possibly continuing down into about 11:17. After 11:21 goes either way, then likely some up after 11:31 and continuing into the lunch hour.

The 7T cycle continues positive, yet this may not be as positive as the previous 7T+. A smaller negative is in play from 12:40 to 1:25; watch to see if this kicks in. Otherwise up after 12:57. After 1:00 is a battle between possibly negative 5T at 1:13 and positive 6T at 1:20. By 1:30 market should be clear on who is winning. Down after 2:01 with key low and possible sharp drop at 2:28. Next bigger move is down into 3:15. Probably up 3:35 into close.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 2:28; key lows 11:10-24 area; 1:25?, 2:00, 3:15-25*
HOD: 10:04-45, 11:02-06, 1:09 (2nd choice HOD), close.

Price levels
Daily SPX has now made 3 higher lows and again moving to the 50% retracement area. Next time market gets there it will break which means next target is 38% at 1479. Chart 1.

NDX is already leading in this regard, above 50% and heading for 38%. Chart 2.

Hourly ES similar as it approaches a 38% Fib that stopped the advance previously; next time this level should break and then try for 50% at 1485. Chart 3.

If Friday is up as I expect, ABCD targets pointing to minimum 1478 and then 1485; even higher possible on good day or next week. Chart 4.

Trendlines, Support & Resistance
Thursday's close got about the top TL; if Friday is up then this level will act as support. Chart 4. Watch the low TL for deeper support if top TL breaks. Also watching usual Fibs from 12/18L to 12/19H and for resistance the move from 12/12H to 12/18L. Chart 5.

Swing trading
Bullish from here; looking for Santa. I was considering doing a day by day for the upcoming week since I will be on vacation, but my system thrives on real time price analysis and then making projections for the next day. So will leave it that I think 12/18 low was it and markets are going up! See you in 2008.

Longer term view
Key low 12/18, markets up into the end of the year. Bullish to 1/20/08.

Thursday 12/20

Moon in Taurus today but the real mover is Sun conjunct Pluto just after close - market going down.

Down for morning but up in afternoon led by tech.

Results
"Perhaps-path & trading
Chance of up early and again after 10:23 to 11:09. After that, expecting down events to win out especially into 11:10 and 11:53. Down again after 12:47. Up after 1:52, then mixed; sharp drop possible in last 30 minutes."

Trading short side worked for morning; the 10:23 move was just a small retracement in downtrend. Jumping on early short "Markets can go either way on open; if down, watch for end of that move about 9:38. If up first, then watch 9:45. In any scenario, heavy drop into 10:12" good for 5+ points. Shorting again 10:54 with MACD cross and retracement giving way good for another 5+ points. 12:47 went the other way, stopped. Even if first leg of up missed, up after 1:52 good for another 5+ points. Short at 3:30 stopped, another cycle took market up.

Call - "Drop at 11:10, down cycles at 11:18 and 11:21, and another sharp drop into 11:53."
Result - Playing out here.

Call - "Lift into 1:46, then more up after 1:52."
Result - Jumping on here good afternoon trade.

* * * * * * *

Down.

Perhaps-path & trading
Chance of up early and again after 10:23 to 11:09. After that, expecting down events to win out especially into 11:10 and 11:53. Down again after 12:47. Up after 1:52, then mixed; sharp drop possible in last 30 minutes.

News: 8:30 GDP, Corporate Profits; Claims; 10:00 Leading Indicators; 10:30 Natural Gas

Details
What are Wall Street's worst fears? Sluggish economy, no profits, recession. If news gives any reason to stoke these fears on Thursday, market will go down. If data merely in line with expectations still bearish on day; of course any surprise good news will lift markets. Markets can go down anytime after 7:30 pm Wednesday, and down pressure increases after 2:00 am Thursday. If noticeably down here, then more likely a down day. On the other hand, if markets lift after 5:45 am then the day may turn out somewhat better. Closer to open, watching for down anytime after 8:50 am into the session open at 9:30.

Markets can go either way on open; if down, watch for end of that move about 9:38. If up first, then watch 9:45. In any scenario, heavy drop into 10:12 and another dip at 10:22. If 10:23 takes off up then good until 11:09. Then another cycle pointing up from 10:51 to 12:21. Like yesterday, this creates a window of time where a rally is likely. It may not start on the very dot of 10:51 and it may not culminate on the very dot of 12:21, but a move up is possible along the way here. However, down events will at least limit and, as I expect, dominate. Drop at 11:10, down cycles at 11:18 and 11:21, and another sharp drop into 11:53. So if the down events are winning then price will make this clear so stick with the shorts. After 11:53, expecting up into 12:18-21.

Market may continue higher into 12:28 and beyond, but watch for down after 12:47. A couple strong down cycles hitting at once here, then continuing down after 1:04. Lift into 1:46, then more up after 1:52. Mid afternoon looking choppy with mixed cycles in play. Down pressure after 2:57, then additional down in the last 30 minutes. Due to larger cycles at work, expecting close on lows.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 3:50-close; key lows 10:12*, 11:10, 11:53*, 1:33, 3:01.
HOD: 11:00-10, key highs 12:21-28, 1:46, 2:00, 3:03.

Price levels
Daily SPX got up to 50% retracement level and promptly revered, which is a bearish signal. Chart 1.

NDX had a positive day, but couldn't get above the highs of Tuesday. Chart 2.

Hourly ES also got to a key 50% level and promptly headed down. As you can see, this is an entirely different measurement from the daily but both of these hit at the same time. Chart 3.

Trendlines, Support & Resistance
The top TL acted as support on Wednesday though declining. New TL off the lows is the now the key level for Thursday. When that breaks watch for a sharper drop. Chart 4.

Wednesday's low was right on a 61% retracement; if Thursday goes down, watch 76 at 1452. Next stop Tuesday's lows at 1445.

Swing trading
Looking for re-test or break of Tuesday's low on Thursday, then more likely rebound rally on Friday.

Before the end of the week I wills end a quick preview for the days I will be off (daily notes only), although I am not particularly recommending holding positions through the holidays.

Longer term view
Key low perhaps 12/18 but still looking for re-test 12/20-24. Then expecting seasonal buying to mildly lift market into the end of 2007 and first week in 2008. Market continuing up somewhat into about 1/12/08. If 12/20-24 lows break in 2008 then more likely bear market; otherwise expecting some up within a trading range; the 10/11/07 high still stands.

Time EST	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T+?
9:30 AM	6Tm
9:30 AM	5T+
9:30 AM	3T+			to 9:45
9:57 AM	4T+?
10:12 AM		4H--	**
10:22 AM		4H-
10:23 AM	4TA+			to 11:09
10:36 AM	3T-			to 10:49
10:51 AM	4TA+			to 12:21
11:10 AM		4H--	*
11:18 AM	4T-
11:21 AM	3T-			to 11:43
11:50 AM	6T+
11:51 AM	4T+?
11:53 AM		4H--	*
12:18 PM		4H+?
12:21 PM		5H++	*
12:28 PM	3T+			to 12:47
12:28 PM		4H+
12:47 PM	4T--		*
12:59 PM	3T--		*	to 1:12
1:04 PM	5T-
1:33 PM	3T+			to 1:49
1:35 PM	3T-			to 1:52
1:46 PM		4H++
1:52 PM	4T+
2:00 PM		4H+
2:09 PM	3T+			to 2:38
2:12 PM	3T-			to 2:28
2:38 PM	3T++			to 2:58
2:45 PM		5H-
2:57 PM	4T-
3:01 PM		4H--	*
3:03 PM		5H+
3:22 PM		4H+
3:29 PM	7T-
3:29 PM		4H-
3:54 PM	4T+?

Wednesday 12/19

Moon in Aries trines Sun at 12:22 and then moves on to trine Pluto and Mercury at about 2:30. Due to configurations direction is a little tricky, but expecting *down* into Sun aspect and *up* into Pluto-Mercury, which is not the way it usually works.

Rather pleased with the method when it catches most of the moves on the day. Read for yourself below.

Results
"Perhaps-path & trading
Watching to see if market lifts out of 9:15; if so, more bullish on day. Otherwise looking for shorts, especially after 10:07. If market continues down after 10:35 (repeat at 11:40), then likely down into the key event at 12:22. Chance of inversion here so watch both times for confirmation. If down as expected, then up anytime after 12:42 into 2:28. 1:50 another key move, can go either way. Up after 2:42, either way last hour."

Market strong out of the gate, long 9:45 good for 2-5 points depending on exit. Short after 10:07 stopped, but shorting again with break of TL and MACD cross at 10:56 caught 9+ points. 1:50 turned out low of day; buy at 2:00 worth another 7+ points. Trading last hour a little choppy but down as called in midday update.

Call - "Dip at 9:33, then if markets up possible to run to about 9:49. Down pressure after 10:07, down into 10:12 and again 10:26. Watch 10:35; if markets continue down here as expected, then general down pressure from 10:35 all the way to 12:22. If this inverts and indexes clearly lift, then 12:22 is likely up as well. Repeat the exercise at 11:40. Preferred scenario is continued down after 10:35. After 11:07 goes either way, lift into 11:29, down again after 11:39. After 11:48 can be a sharp drop into the main event at 12:22 (as long as that has confirmed down as previously written). "
Result - Almost all of this on; my view of 10:35 is 5 1 minute up bars and the rest down; this means down momentum into 12:22. While 12:22 was higher low, getting short with the drop was a big score.

Midday Call - "Bearish scenario is down into 12:22, lower lows into 1:50 then up into 2:28-32."
Result - Perfect.

* * * * * * *

Down then up.

Perhaps-path & trading
Watching to see if market lifts out of 9:15; if so, more bullish on day. Otherwise looking for shorts, especially after 10:07. If market continues down after 10:35 (repeat at 11:40), then likely down into the key event at 12:22. Chance of inversion here so watch both times for confirmation. If down as expected, then up anytime after 12:42 into 2:28. 1:50 another key move, can go either way. Up after 2:42, either way last hour.

News: 10:30 oil

Details
The market remains under strong down pressure through Wednesday morning about 9:15 am. If markets make a low and noticeably turn up, then the morning may turn out more positively. Otherwise on another cycle expecting down anytime after 8:20 am; this influence continues throughout the session on Wednesday.

Regular session open can go either way. Dip at 9:33, then if markets up possible to run to about 9:49. Down pressure after 10:07, down into 10:12 and again 10:26. Watch 10:35; if markets continue down here as expected, then general down pressure from 10:35 all the way to 12:22. If this inverts and indexes clearly lift, then 12:22 is likely up as well. Repeat the exercise at 11:40. Preferred scenario is continued down after 10:35. After 11:07 goes either way, lift into 11:29, down again after 11:39. After 11:48 can be a sharp drop into the main event at 12:22 (as long as that has confirmed down as previously written).

If a key low forms at 12:22, that can be in on the day. Key trend change at 12:30, then chance of up after 12:42. This is the same process as the morning, now expecting up. If the morning was up, then these are more likely to be down. Simply stated, watching for up anytime after 12:42. Strong lift into 1:10. Key move into 1:50, can go either way. Some down pressure after 1:53 but the larger move should be up into 2:28. Up after 2:42, key low 3:01, either way last hour.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 12:22-33; key lows 9:33, 10:12, 11:14, 11:50, 1:50?, 3:01
HOD 2:42-3:07; key highs 10:52, 11:29, 12:33, 1:50?, 2:28*.

Price levels
Daily SPX held the 76%, just 2 points from exact. This level continues to show up almost every day at least once in intraday moves, so chance that Tuesday's low is it for this reason. Still chance of re-test or break Thursday to Monday, but lows from here could be higher.

NDX also fought back above at 76% level. Chart 2.

ES hit a 123% projection almost to the tick and turned up. As long as that holds, next step is to watch for up pattern. Chart 3. By the end of the day, ES also poking out the sharp downtrend channel that has been in play since last Tuesday.

Trendlines, Support & Resistance
For support watching usual Fibs from Tuesday's L to H, especially that 76% at 1451-52. If market can head up higher, then watching from 12/13H - 50% at 1473, 61% 1480 and 76% at 1488.

If we have a legitimate change of trend here, the top downtrend line on chart 3 will act as support.

Swing trading
Tuesday's low might have been it, but even if it was market should come back down early Wednesday and Thursday session. The most straightforward case that it was the low is the simple 76% retrace; as noted above, this has been so common intraday that it is more likely to be the level that sticks where 50% and 61% didn't stop anything at all. Also, it's about time for Santa, isn't it? To have higher lows for Thursday-Monday, Wednesday needs to deliver with a strong up day.

Before the end of the week I wills end a quick preview for the days I will be off (daily notes only), although I am not particularly recommending holding positions through the holidays.

Longer term view
Key low perhaps 12/18 but still looking for re-test 12/20-24. Then expecting seasonal buying to mildly lift market into the end of 2007 and first week in 2008. Market continuing up somewhat into about 1/12/08. If 12/20-24 lows break in 2008 then more likely bear market; otherwise expecting some up within a trading range; the 10/11/07 high still stands.

Time EST	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T--
9:30 AM	6T-
9:30 AM	5T+?
9:30 AM	3T+			to 9:49
9:33 AM		4H-
10:02 AM		4H+
10:07 AM	3T-			to 10:53
10:09 AM	4T-
10:12 AM		4H-
10:26 AM		4H-
10:35 AM	4TA-?
10:52 AM		4H+
11:07 AM	4Tm
11:14 AM		4H-
11:25 AM	3T-			to 11:47
11:29 AM		4H+
11:39 AM	3T-			to 12:04
11:40 AM	4TA-?
11:48 AM	4T--		*
11:50 AM		4H--
11:58 AM		4H+
12:22 PM		5H--?
12:30 PM	5Tm
12:33 PM		4H-
12:42 PM	4TA+?
1:10 PM		4H++	*
1:19 PM	4TA+?
1:39 PM	3T-			to 2:13
1:50 PM		6Hm
1:53 PM	3T-			to 2:42
2:09 PM	4T-
2:11 PM		6Tm
2:13 PM	3T+			to 2:42
2:28 PM		5H++?
2:42 PM	4T+
2:42 PM	3T+			to 3:02
3:01 PM		4H--
3:07 PM	4Tm
3:33 PM		4H-

Tuesday 12/18

Moon in Aries today, and typically this would mean energetic markets. However, Saturn is stationing early Wednesday and this is a drag on action. Markets are overdue for a bounce and up in the overnight session, but Saturn's effect could turn this into a sideways day.

Sideways by close, but a lot of action for session. Forecast caught most of morning including the key spikes down.

Results
"Perhaps-path & trading
If markets up from 3:00 am, possible to have more positive day. Key change 10:30 which can go either way, watch for continuation down or possible turn up especially after 10:57. Whatever direction dominates after 10:30 should continue after 11:21. Best chance of up on the day is into 12:37. Strong down pressure anytime after 3:18 into close."

Markets *were* up after 3:00 am but high at 9:30 and first move going for 1/2 gap fill. Sharp spike down into 10:12 4H--* on sheet "Strong dip and key low at 10:12" so shorting MACD cross down at 10:04, +3. Then watching for 10:30, market answers down in next 5 minutes & shorting again, +2. Since down at 10:30 looking for down after 11:21, short with MACD cross at 11:12 good for about 10 points. From midday update "watch for rebound in this window from 1:53 to 3:32." Even if first leg missed buying break of highs at 2:09, 3+ points. Markets went up all the way into 3:32 5H+ a few, then gave back.

Call - "Strong dip and key low at 10:12. 7T at 10:30 which can go either way. Often (Monday was rare exception) there are key turns near these times. In any scenario, down pressure due to the minor cycle from 10:31 into 10:57 so this may need to pass before the market can really turn. If market does not turn up after 10:57, then that 7T is definitely down. After 11:21 is the next important trend change on the day. This should follow the same direction as the 7T at 10:30. Even if up after 10:30 and continuing up after 11:21, some down pressure after 11:29 and a key low at 11:52."
Results - Plunge into 10:12 meant watch for next 4H-- at 11:52. Down after 10:30 and continuing down after 10:57 meant down at 11:21. High confidence & easy shorts here!

Call - "Chance of up into 2:39, low 3:01, up into 3:32."
Result - Markets in big squeeze here so sharply higher into 2:39 (top 2:34) then down into 3:01, then up into 3:32+.

* * * * * * *

Mixed signals for Tuesday; path of least resistance is still down.

Perhaps-path & trading
If markets up from 3:00 am, possible to have more positive day. Key change 10:30 which can go either way, watch for continuation down or possible turn up especially after 10:57. Whatever direction dominates after 10:30 should continue after 11:21. Best chance of up on the day is into 12:37. Strong down pressure anytime after 3:18 into close.

News: 8:30 Housing starts, Building permits

Overall the market is under strong down pressure into Wednesday morning and again Thursday. That said, markets have been down hard for about a week and a bounce is getting overdue. It had the chance on Monday and couldn't deliver so bias is down until proven otherwise. In overnight markets chance of some positive anytime after about 3:00 am. If any noticeable improvement here, then more of a chance of bounce on Tuesday. Also please note that several days in this time frame near the holidays last year had daily ranges of 7-10 SPX points; if market shows signs of poking around sideways probably better to just take a break.

Expecting down from open, then after 9:39 can go either way. Chance of up after 10:00; if one of the 3T+s kick in, the rest on the day should as well. Strong dip and key low at 10:12. 7T at 10:30 which can go either way. Often (Monday was rare exception) there are key turns near these times. In any scenario, down pressure due to the minor cycle from 10:31 into 10:57 so this may need to pass before the market can really turn. If market does not turn up after 10:57, then that 7T is definitely down. After 11:21 is the next important trend change on the day. This should follow the same direction as the 7T at 10:30. Even if up after 10:30 and continuing up after 11:21, some down pressure after 11:29 and a key low at 11:52.

Expecting some down after 12:20 but stronger move up into 12:37. After 1:40 tries to lift, but possibly driven down by the 3T- from 1:43 to 2:17 and down event right at 2:17 as well. Chance of up into 2:39, low 3:01, up into 3:32. Strong down after 3:18 into close.

Guess-pectations
LOD: close; key lows 9:37, 10:30-57, 11:18, 11:52*, 2:17, 3:01*.
HOD: 12:37; key highs 11:14, 12:02, 2:29, 3:32.

Price levels
Daily SPX opened at the 50% level and dropped straight through 61% without much of a fight. If market continues down, watch 76% at 1434. 76% levels continue to show up frequently on smaller time-frames. Chart 1.

Daily NDX leading to downside, already hitting the 76% retrace. Chart 2. If market can bounce on Tuesday then NDX needs to turn up.

ES in vicious downtrend since FOMC; currently at 100% ABCD target of 1455. If that holds then look for retracement bounce; otherwise next levels down are 1444, 1438 and then 1427. Even if market can bounce for a little while Tuesday, still looking for lower lows Wednesday morning and Thursday.

Trendlines, Support & Resistance
There were 3 lows and a high at SPX 1439-1446, so chance of support here. Next down 1434 based on Fib above, below that and market back to that 3 year trend channel and November lows at 1406.

Watching top TL on chart 3 for resistance to any up move. Chart 3. Also drawing the usual Fibs from 11/14H and 11/12H. Chart 4.

Swing trading
Even if Tuesday session can lift some, there remains very strong down pressure into Wednesday morning and again on Thursday the entire day; expecting lower lows. Chance of relief up rally Friday but even this isn't guaranteed.

Longer term view
Key low 12/20-24, then expecting seasonal buying to mildly lift market into the end of 2007 and first week in 2008. Market continuing mildly higher into about 1/12/08. If 12/20-24 lows break in 2008 then more likely bear market; otherwise expecting some up within a trading range; the 10/11/07 high still stands.

Time EST	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7Tm
9:30 AM	6Tm
9:30 AM	5T-
9:37 AM		4H-
9:39 AM	4Tm
10:00 AM	3T+?			to 10:50
10:11 AM	3T+?			to 10:31
10:12 AM		4H--	*
10:30 AM	7Tm
10:30 AM	4Tm
10:30 AM		4H-
10:31 AM	3T-			to 10:57
10:42 AM		4H-
11:14 AM		4H+
11:18 AM		4H-
11:21 AM	5Tm
11:29 AM	3T-		*	to 11:51
11:43 AM	3T-			to 12:08
11:52 AM		4H--	*
12:02 PM		4H+
12:14 PM		4H-
12:20 PM	4T-?
12:30 PM		4H-
12:37 PM		4H++	*
1:36 PM		4H-
1:40 PM	4T+?
1:43 PM	3T-			to 2:17
1:57 PM	3T+?			to 2:20
2:01 PM		4H-
2:17 PM		4H--	*
2:19 PM	4T-
2:20 PM	3T-			to 2:46
2:29 PM		4H++
3:01 PM		4H--	*
3:18 PM	4T--		**
3:32 PM		5H+
3:35 PM	5T-
3:36 PM		4H-

Monday 12/17

Moon is in Pisces for the morning and early afternoon will easily drop, but into Aries at 1:52 is a major change of scene. This should be enough to get things going on upside, at least for a little while this afternoon!

For all of 30 minutes; this market is in trouble.

Results
The + events did not come through & - negative events dominated.

"Perhaps-path & trading
The morning has chance of strong moves but direction tricky; please read detailed notes below. Looking for up anytime after 11:40 into the strong event at 1:26, then continuing sharply higher after 1:52. If trading options, I think the long side will give the better move today but question is the entry point."

This was off, day was down. The morning was looking for turns at 10:23-24 (minor one) and then 11:27. Up after 11:40 ok but good for just a few points before market broke down after 1:00. 7T at 1:52 not much juice this time, just creating an intraday correction then down again shortly after the 5H+ at 2:18 past. Best moves in last hour "Market may slow down anytime after 2:23. Last hour goes either way; watch for up after 3:10 but down anytime after 3:36." Looking to short after 2:23 gave profit, long after 3:10 possible profit, short after 3:36 also profit. If trying the long options trade this was stopped out at 1:00 with break of low.

Call - "Then after 1:52 is the next important change on the day. Regular clients know that many days we do not have even one 7T and today we have two. Looking for very fast and strong move higher after 1:52. Maybe this lasts only 10-15 minutes, but if this kicks in as expected those 10-15 minutes will be 5+ points and worth catching. Market may slow down anytime after 2:23. Last hour goes either way; watch for up after 3:10 but down anytime after 3:36. "
Result - Not strong at 1:52 but still market lifted from 2:00 into 2:31-40; 'slow down' on a down day just means 'down' then markets up from after 3:06.

* * * * * * *

Hi,

Big swings and good trading today. Strong up into 1:26 and again after 1:52.

Perhaps-path & trading
The morning has chance of strong moves but direction tricky; please read detailed notes below. Looking for up anytime after 11:40 into the strong event at 1:26, then continuing sharply higher after 1:52. If trading options, I think the long side will give the better move today but question is the entry point.

News: 8:30 Current Account, NY Empire State Index; 9:00 Foreign Purchases

The market can easily make big swings today so some good trading possible. If you are daring enough to daytrade expiring December options there will be a love of movement in these. Overnight markets can go either way for the Sunday open, but watch for a turn down anytime after 6:30 pm. Bias is for down to continue most of Sunday night and early Monday morning. Stronger move into 5:00-5:20 am that can go either way.

This is an unusually active day so please read these notes carefully. The market first dips into 9:41. Then it is influenced by the move into 11:27 which officially starts anytime after 9:42. If the market noticeably recovers after 9:41 and lifts after 9:42 for the next several minutes then the move into 11:27 should be up. However, if the market accelerates lower after the 9:41 hit then down pressure into 11:27. After 10:23 is a strong change to negative (7T--). In addition, there is a key event at 10:24 which should give some kind of move either up or down. In almost any scenario, markets will slow or turn lower after 10:23-24. At some point, though, they will move into the 11:27 event which can be either up or down.

The bullish scenario for the morning is dip at 9:41, up after 9:42 into 10:24, intraday correction, then further up into 11:27. The bearish scenario is simply down into 10:24 and continued down afterwards into 11:27. We could also have a mixed scenario with a move into 10:24 (either up or down), then the reverse direction into 11:27. Since it is options week where the goal of the market is to fleece as many traders as possible, I think the mixed scenario is most likely!

At some point after 11:40 the market is very likely up into the next strong event at 1:26. The series of down hits just after lunch will cause some dips, so the question is when the up effect will kick in. If the day is more negative, then lower lows during the lunch hour. Please keep in mind that from 11:40 to 1:26 is a *window* for a strong up move, but it may not start on the dot of 11:40. If it does, then it is more likely to be even stronger. Then after 1:52 is the next important change on the day. Regular clients know that many days we do not have even one 7T and today we have two. Looking for very fast and strong move higher after 1:52. Maybe this lasts only 10-15 minutes, but if this kicks in as expected those 10-15 minutes will be 5+ points and worth catching. Market may slow down anytime after 2:23. Last hour goes either way; watch for up after 3:10 but down anytime after 3:36.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 12:16-18; key lows 9:41, 10:24?, 12:59*, 11:22-27?, close.
HOD: 2:17; key highs 10:24?, 11:27?, 1:26*, 3:50.

Price levels
Daily SPX dropped from the 38% correction level and headed towards 50%. If 50% area of 1465 holds, watch for a bounce. Chart 1.

Daily NDX about the same level. Chart 2.

Aside from last Wednesday's opening gap, trend on hourly ES has been strongly down since FOMC. Chart 3.

Two different ABCD down patterns in play. Measuring from FOMC high, the market has now broken the 76% low and heading towards 100% at 1472 or on a bad day 1460. Chart 4.

If the market discounts the big spike down and crazy gap up, which it may do, then down patterns point to 76% at 1466 and chance of 1455 which may hit later in the week. Chart 5.

Trendlines, Support & Resistance
Key downtrend line on SPX asserted itself to repel the recent rally. Chart 1.

ES in downtrend. Watching Fibs from both 12/11H and 12/12 high to see which one market prefers. Chart 6.

Key support at SPX 1465, this is 50% level and very important. Below that watch 61% at 1450. On March08 ES the 50% level is 1477 which is where the market closed on Friday.

Resistance at recent highs: Friday high at 1498, Thursday at 1501 and Wednesday at 1425.

Swing trading
Monday swings both ways but chance of closing higher especially if move after 1:52 strong, which I think it will be. Bias is down for the rest of the week into Thursday. Will have better signals for Tuesday by Monday but very strong down pressure early Wednesday which can easily drag down Tuesday and especially overnight markets giving a big gap down for Wednesday. Another heavy down day on Thursday. Chance of relief up rally Friday but even this isn't guaranteed.

Longer term view
Key low 12/20-24, then expecting seasonal buying to mildly lift market into the end of 2007 and first week in 2008. Market continuing mildly higher into about 1/12/08. If 12/20-24 lows break in 2008 then more likely bear market; otherwise expecting some up within a trading range; the 10/11/07 high still stands.

Time EST	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7Tm
9:30 AM	6T-
9:30 AM	5T+
9:30 AM	4T++
9:41 AM		4H--	*
9:42 AM	4TAm
9:57 AM	3T+			to 10:35
10:04 AM	3T+			to 11:54
10:12 AM		4Hm
10:23 AM	7T--		**
10:24 AM		6Hm
10:34 AM		4Hm
10:35 AM	3T-			to 11:01
10:53 AM	4Tm
11:01 AM	3T+			to 11:30
11:22 AM		4H--
11:27 AM		5Hm
11:40 AM	4TA+		*
11:47 AM	3T-			to 12:12
11:55 AM		4H-
12:04 PM	4T-?
12:09 PM		4Hm
12:16 PM		4H--
12:18 PM		4H--
12:35 PM		4H-
12:41 PM		4H-
12:59 PM		4H--
1:13 PM	4Tm
1:23 PM	3T+			to 1:44
1:26 PM		5H++	**
1:47 PM	3T-			to 2:21
1:52 PM	7T++		**
2:01 PM	3T+			to 2:24
2:02 PM		4H+
2:17 PM		5H+
2:23 PM	4T-
2:24 PM	3T-			to 2:50
3:00 PM		4H--
3:01 PM	6Tm
3:10 PM	3T+			to 3:50
3:36 PM	4TA-
3:40 PM		4H--

Swing trading 12/10-14

This was the forecast from Monday: "First move is up on Monday morning, then markets can go either way in afternoon. Tuesday also starts strong but by now most buying done and if anything some longs having second thoughts. Expecting down after 2:15 but consider this speculative. Then weak up on Wednesday, up Thursday and down Friday.

Bullish scenario is that markets trade up on Monday, move higher on Tuesday after 2:15, sideways on Wednesday and even higher on Thursday. This would make the low of the week early Monday and the high of the week on Thursday. Best moves to upside are Monday morning, Tuesday after 2:15 and Thursday.

The preferred bearish scenario is for markets to start up Monday morning and maintain gains into early Tuesday, then down after 2:15. Weak bounce Wednesday but slow action during session, up Thursday and down Friday. High of week Tuesday before 2:15 and low of week on Tuesday after 2:15. If Thursday isn't strong up then some chance of lower lows on Friday."

Not bad. Long early Monday was good for 5-10+ points depending on exit. I am not exactly encouraging trading during the Fed day unless you are experienced with these kinds of things, but the call was a good one and trading it could have resulted in a major score. The magnitude of Wednesday's pre-market bounce (though due to FOMC) and the decline were both greater than anticipated. If trying long for Thursday then possibly stopped with the gap down and lower morning, otherwise getting out near close.

Day by day
Monday
Call - "Markets lifting with hopes of FOMC magic, then afternoon can go either way."
Result - Early lift then sideways in tight range.

Tuesday
Call - Probably dull to 2:15" and "If markets trade lower as expected, then watch for moves of 19 points or 28 points down from any key high."
Results - Market ticked higher into 2:15, then down big with close down 38 points from open (2x19).

Wednesday
Call - "Slow and limited range day; down mid-afternoon."
Result - Off here, a big gap up then even greater decline. Rollover adding to volatility.

Thursday
Call - " Expecting bounce in morning but afternoon down."
Result - No bounce, mild gap down then basing with afternoon up to fill gap.

Friday
Call - "If at all possible, markets are going up today."
Result - High CPI data nixed that one with gap down, fill and then sharp drop into close.

Friday 12/14

Markets gaining momentum with Moon in Aquarius. Moon conjunct Neptune at will bring the market down near 1:21, but otherwise looking for up!

Posted before CPI news this morning. Forecast spot on for morning, read for yourself below.

Results
"Perhaps-path & trading
Looking for long anytime from open into 10:42 and possibly continuing all the way to 12:18. Down and key retracement lower into 1:21, further down after 1:27. Key change 1:45; if up, HOD likely near close. If down, then down to 2:40-3:00, chance of up anytime after 2:41. Looking for strong up right into close."

Trading the morning calls was just about spot on. LOD right on open, dip to buy in after 9:53 (" Expecting up and especially after 9:53") good for a few points, then stronger lift into 10:42 also good for 3+ points. "Momentum weakens after 11:00, and then look for the midday correction anytime from 11:29 into the strongest down event of the day at 1:21" so getting short with new lows after 11:12 was good for 3-5 points depending on exit. Markets down on the dot of 1:27, then made lower lows after 1:45 telling us that 7T is negative. Shorting break of lows after 2:00 rewarded the patient. One major inversion since 2:41 strong down instead of up. Careful traders not buying in on down day with lower highs and lower lows the whole way.

Call - "Expecting up and especially after 9:53. If markets noticeably lift after 10:16, this means big money is back and market going up big. In any scenario, watch for strong up into 10:42. Momentum weakens after 11:00, and then look for the midday correction anytime from 11:29 into the strongest down event of the day at 1:21."
Result - All of this was spot on.

Call - "Down continues after 1:27, but then a key change on the day at 1:45 with both a 7T and 5T simultaneously. If markets continue up here, then very strong up into close. If not, then down likely to 2:41."
Result - Lower lows at 2:00 gave direction on the 7T.

* * * * * * *

Up!

Perhaps-path & trading
Looking for long anytime from open into 10:42 and possibly continuing all the way to 12:18. Down and key retracement lower into 1:21, further down after 1:27. Key change 1:45; if up, HOD likely near close. If down, then down to 2:40-3:00, chance of up anytime after 2:41. Looking for strong up right into close.

News: 8:30 CPI; 9:15 Industrial Production

If at all possible, markets are going up today. Data can be a catalyst but there doesn't need to be a reason; Santa is coming! Overnight leans positive; watch 12:40 am Friday for possible up and if that doesn't do it then watch for signs that big money is buying anytime after 5:30 am. Closer to the session open, conditions for 8:30 news remain overall positive but short term mild negative. Markets should be stronger after 9:06, and if so likely continuing into open.

Expecting up and especially after 9:53. If markets noticeably lift after 10:16, this means big money is back and market going up big. In any scenario, watch for strong up into 10:42. Momentum weakens after 11:00, and then look for the midday correction anytime from 11:29 into the strongest down event of the day at 1:21. This is a long window, though, and chance of up after 11:44 into the strong up event at 12:18. After this top, market should move down down 1:21.

Down continues after 1:27, but then a key change on the day at 1:45 with both a 7T and 5T simultaneously. If markets continue up here, then very strong up into close. If not, then down likely to 2:41. Looking for up after 2:41, and still chance of strong move higher right into the close.

Guess-pectations
LOD: 9:42-47; key lows 12:31, 1:21*, 1:45?, 2:41.
HOD: close; key highs 10:42, 11:43, 12:18*, 2:03.

Price levels
Daily SPX tested and held Wednesday's lows and closed on highs. Looking bullish. Chart 1.

ES (Now March contract, H8) held the 76% projection low and based right on the level for a few hours. As long as that holds, next pattern is up. However, if Wednesday's lows break then check the lower levels. Chart 2.

ABCD up targets shown on chart 3.

NDX mirroring the SPX. Chart 4.

Trendlines, Support & Resistance
Even though SPX failed at the top TL twice, watching for a third try on Friday and Monday. Chart 1.

Hourly ES tested and held the low TL in play from the end of November; watch for this to continue support Friday and Monday. Chart 5.

Market referencing 11/26 lows by making a standard 50% retrace, also shown on chart 5. When markets hit 50% and turn back up, they usually make a go for highs which in this case is back up to 1525 area. This level may hit by Monday.

Key resistance at Wednesday's opening high and Tuesday's pre-FOMC high.

Swing trading
Expecting up on Friday. Monday is mixed and may have large swings both ways but ending higher. However, I am still expecting a sharp drop next week, especially Tuesday through Friday.

Longer term view
Markets have retraced 50% of the move up from 11/26, now trying to lift higher before falling again. While there is some chance that 12/12 low holds, I am expecting at least a re-test and preferably a break next week. Then markets will be at an important juncture after 12/24, either confirming a bear market or holding up and trading in a range into 2008.

Time EST	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	7T+?
9:30 AM	6Tm
9:30 AM	5T+
9:53 AM		4H-
9:47 AM	3T+			to 10:09
10:05 AM		4H+
10:11 AM	4T+?
10:16 AM	3T+			to 11:06
10:42 AM		4H++	*
11:00 AM	3T-			to 11:13
11:29 AM	4TA-
11:43 AM		4H+
11:44 AM	4T+
11:53 AM	4TAm
11:59 AM	3T-			to 12:24
12:18 PM