Thursday 8/30

Sent to clients Wednesday 8/29 at 7:45 pm PDT.

While Thursday may have the occasional spike up, looking for markets to trade lower. After 2:15 at risk for sell-off.

News: 8:30 Corporate profits, GDP, Claims; 10:00 Help wanted; 10:30 Natural gas

First of all, it is *not* a good day for news or data so any bad numbers or suggestions that deflate the Bernanke letter that drove up markets yesterday will quickly take indexes back down. Pre-open particularly at risk for down; watch anytime near 9:15 for a low. Markets likely to spike down on open into 9:32. Then if tone more positive or simply if news hasn't been that bad, chance of turning up right at 9:33 and lifting into 9:46 and especially 10:04. After 10:14 is mixed; primary cycle negative yet positive hits will help lift indexes even further into 10:22 and 10:35. After 10:55 has a chance to spike up and break through any resistance to upside, but at some point markets will move lower and perhaps sharply into 11:43. After 11:53 continues down into the lunch hour.

After 12:42 is significant yet can go either way. On a good day, indexes will try to head higher; but if any reason for concern, markets can easily turn the other way. A preferred scenario for the afternoon here are some attempts to lift yet lower highs sending the message that markets are vulnerable; at some point, probably after 2:15, they sell off. In sum, markets are vulnerable to down anytime after 2:15 so if you see indexes heading that way get short. After 2:28 can go either way. 3:17 is some positive that may help stabilize or turn up if earlier periods have been down. Into 3:44 is another strong move but can go either way; if up then a corrective move higher in overall down; if this turns down, afternoon moving sharply lower. Either way, down 3:49 to close.

Guess-pectations: LOD close; key lows 9:32, 11:43, 12:29, 1:26, 2:48. HOD 10:22-35; key highs 11:31, 2:20*, 2:38, 3:44?

Perhaps-path: Markets gapping down, then going for gap fill anytime after 9:33. Lifting mid-morning, highs 10:22-35 or if day stronger then 11:31. Down hard into 11:43, down further into lunch hour. Early afternoon tries to lift but dips taking their toll on momentum and markets start selling off after a 2:20 top. After 2:28 and 3:44 event tough to call, will have clues by midday update. Preferred scenario is down into close.

Swing trading
Expecting down on Thursday yet at this point expecting that Tuesday's closing low will hold. Signals pointing to up for Friday but end of month, pre-holiday and Ben all factoring in here. If Thursday is a mild down, Friday can easily set new highs on the week. Still expecting down next week with key lows coming 9/4-6. Then *mega-up* starting as early as 9/6, definitely on 9/7 and continuing on up into the following week.

Price levels
ES went to 61% of previous swing and completed ABCD 123 up in the process; likely coming down. (See chart ES 8-29 15min levels). Next targets are retracements of this upswing. See chart 'levels 2.' Thursday targets 1451, 1447, 1442.

Longer term view
Expecting 8/24 highs to hold for now, but if Thursday is moderate down and Friday big up then markets can get close or perhaps surpass them. Still looking for heavier down into key lows 9/5-6 but expecting 8/16 lows to hold. Then massive rally kicking in at the end of that week and continuing up the following week and later September. This move will surprise everyone on upside. But October is going down!

Time EDT	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:14 AM		6H-		can be low
9:30 AM	6T+
9:30 AM	5T+
9:32 AM		4H--	*
9:33 AM	3T+			to 10:08
9:46 AM		4H+
10:04 AM		4H++	*
10:14 AM	4T-
10:16 AM		4H+
10:22 AM		4H++	*
10:35 AM		4H++	*
10:44 AM	3T+			to 11:30
10:55 AM	4T++
10:57 AM		4H-
11:12 AM		4H--
11:31 AM		4H+
11:43 AM		5H-	**
11:53 AM	4T--
12:12 PM		4H++
12:29 PM		4H-
12:31 PM	3T+			to 1:00
12:39 PM		4H-
12:42 PM	5Tm
12:45 PM		4H-
12:57 PM		4H--
1:00 PM	3T-			to 1:27
1:12 PM		4H-
1:27 PM	3T++			to 2:26
1:39 PM	4T-
1:39 PM		4H-
1:46 PM		4H+?
2:15 PM	6T--
2:20 PM		4H++
2:23 PM		4H--
2:27 PM		4H+
2:28 PM	4Tm
2:38 PM		4H++
2:48 PM		4H--
2:54 PM		4H++?
3:09 PM		4H++
3:17 PM	4T+
3:26 PM		4H+
3:31 PM	3T+			to 3:49
3:32 PM		4H++
3:44 PM		5Hm
3:49 PM	3T--
3:50 PM		4H-

Results
Outlook - Please read "Perhaps-Path" above. Check chart. Read it again, check chart. You will see that it is about 80% correct. Forecast basically nailed the day and got the gap down, morning rally, noon spike down and afternoon selloff. Trading even some of these recommendations resulted in 20+ ES points and much more easily possible.

Call - "Markets gapping down."
Result - Traders who saw this forecast in swing notes and shorted Wednesday's close woke up to about 10 points.

Call - "Markets likely to spike down on open into 9:32. Then if tone more positive or simply if news hasn't been that bad, chance of turning up right at 9:33 and lifting into 9:46 and especially 10:04. After 10:14 is mixed; primary cycle negative yet positive hits will help lift indexes even further into 10:22 and 10:35. After 10:55 has a chance to spike up and break through any resistance to upside, but at some point markets will move lower and perhaps sharply into 11:43."
Result - With exception of late line (11:43 inverted and went up) *entirely correct.* If long from 9:35 and out 11:35 then 14 points.

Call - See 4T-- listed at 11:53. This was the only 4T-- on the day.
Result - A low risk high reward short here gave 10 points down in about 20 minutes.

Call - "After 12:42 is significant yet can go either way. On a good day, indexes will try to head higher; but if any reason for concern, markets can easily turn the other way. A preferred scenario for the afternoon here are some attempts to lift yet lower highs sending the message that markets are vulnerable; at some point, probably after 2:15, they sell off. In sum, markets are vulnerable to down anytime after 2:15 so if you see indexes heading that way get short."
Result - Again quite correct! Even though this period initially looked up, markets turned down with the 3T- at 1:00. Down trendlines touched near 2:20 and broke at 2:30. The afternoon low conveniently came with the 4H-- at 2:48 in the middle of the 2:28 4T which had been called negative in midday update. "2:28 4T looking down." Gain, +8 points.

Call - "3:17 4T strong positive so some chance that if market down 2:28 - 3:17 it tries to hold up. Biggest factors though overall influence coming in at 2:15 and 3:44 event."
Result - Mixed conditions equals mixed markets. Indexes first lifted into 2:54 4H++, the 3:09 4H++; 3:17 4T+ helping and then topping with 50% intraday retrace exactly at 3:26 4H+; then 3:44 5H, called as negative midday "3:44 event looking down as well" took markets down.

Wednesday 8/29

Sent to clients Tuesday 9/28 at 9:45 pm PDT.

Morning can go either way, yet expecting selling pressures to take market down into about 12:00 pm. Then looking for midday rally that will lift markets into late afternoon. In general more chance of positive news today. Pulling for higher close.

News: 7:00 MBA purchase apps, 10:30 oil

If markets start ticking up shortly after 7:10 am EDT, this is a sign that we'll get more action up for the regular session. Otherwise, open is mixed yet leaning positive. If markets are up after 9:37 and into 9:50, even more signs to get long for the positive periods. Watch after 10:33 for up especially into 10:43. On a bad day, momentum will slow at 10:48 and turn down after 10:58; watch for any kind if dip near 11:11. However, it is also possible that markets can hold up from 10:33 - 11:14 and finish higher than where they started. If this period has gone up, then definitely look for for up after 12:04. After 11:14 is likely down and possibly strong; expecting markets to head down here and at least test either lows and possibly break them. Yet after 11:20 is a general influence that adds to positive potential for the rest of the day; not expecting immediate action but if you see market moving then expect even more up after 12:04.

After 12:04 is another chance for a strong move up, so looking for key lows just before this period starts. Lunch hour looking up with both primary and minor cycles positive. Watch for up into 1:32. On a good day, momentum will continue after 1:43, but watch 2:02 for a dip. Then markets lift into 2:23, and continue up after 2:24. After 2:47 might weaken, so if markets start heading down here that might be it for the rally; if decline is not severe then watch for up into 3:12 and again at 3:36-41. Down into close due to the negative influence starting at 3:38.

Guess-pectations: LOD 11:54; key lows 9:36, 11:10-15, 11:54, 2:02, close? HOD 3:12; key highs 9:50, 10:43, 1:32, 2:23, 3:36. Note: If markets up from 7:06 then likely earlier lows; if not or other negative start to day, then 11:54 more likely.

Perhaps-path: Markets starting up into 9:50, then lift after 10:33. Key dip near 11:10-15, then down hard after 11:14 into noon. Stronger rally after 12:04 that runs overall to 2:45-3:15. Down to close.

Swing trading
The remainder of this week will be trickier trading. On the bearish side, easily possible for down pressure to continue into Thursday. Yet my signals suggest strong possibility of bounce for Wednesday, especially after 12:04 pm. Thursday is also a mixed case; and Friday my signals are long yet day complicated by 1) Ben and 2) end of month. Will sort as much as possible out in time for forecast. Still expecting further down next week with key lows coming 9/4-6. Then *mega-up* starting as early as 9/6, definitely on 9/7 and continuing on up into the following week.

Price levels
ES has now retraced between 38% and 50% of primary last swing of 8/16L to 8/24H; ideal would be down to 50% Wednesday morning, then strong bounce in the afternoon. See chart ES 8-28 30min. 38% was the minimum and now the question is how low this goes; down to 76% 1400 is possible by 9/4-6.

Longer term view
Expecting 8/24 highs to hold for now and market to retrace the move from 8/16L to 8/24H down into key lows 9/5-6. As of now, expecting 8/16 lows to hold. Then massive rally kicking in at the end of that week and continuing up the following week and later September. This move will surprise everyone on upside. But October is going down!

Time EDT	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	6T-?
9:30 AM	5T+?
9:30 AM	3T+?			to 9:37
9:31 AM		4H+
9:36 AM		4H-
9:37 AM	3T+			to 10:12
9:50 AM		4H++
10:09 AM		4H-
10:20 AM		4H+
10:29 AM		4H+
10:33 AM	4T++		*
10:35 AM		4H+
10:43 AM		4H+
10:48 AM	3T-			to 11:02
10:56 AM		4H-
10:58 AM	3T--		*	to 11:38
11:11 AM		6H-?
11:14 AM	4T--		*
11:16 AM		4H-
11:20 AM	6T++
11:27 AM		4H-
11:35 AM		4H+
11:54 AM	3T+			to 12:35
12:00 PM		4Hm
12:04 PM	5T++		**
12:35 PM	3T+			to 1:04
12:46 PM		4Hm
12:54 PM		4H+
1:31 PM	3T++			to 2:30
1:32 PM		4H++	*
1:43 PM	4T+?
1:44 PM		4H+
1:53 PM	3T-			to 2:19
2:02 PM		4H--	*
2:23 PM		4H++	*
2:24 PM	4T++		*
2:28 PM		4H--
2:29 PM	6Tm
2:45 PM		4H+
2:54 PM	3T++			to 3:12
2:57 PM	4T-
3:12 PM		4H+
3:26 PM		4H-
3:35 PM	3T-			to 3:53
3:36 PM		4H++	*
3:38 PM	4T--
3:41 PM		4H++
3:51 PM		4H--

Results
Market strong up on positive news as called. 12:04 got a late start as warned in midday update but still afternoon good for substantially more points. Buying in either morning rally for 10:33 4T++ or after 1:31 3T++ as called in midday update were both good for 10+ point trades, and even more possible if holding later into the afternoon.

Call - "In general more chance of positive news today."
Result from AP - "News that Bernanke said in a letter to Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., that Fed policymakers are "prepared to act as needed" if the market's turbulence hurts the economy helped pad the market's gain."

Call - "Watch after 10:33 for up especially into 10:43" and "It is also possible that markets can hold up from 10:33 - 11:14 and finish higher than where they started."
Result - This was a strong move. Note the 4T++* listed above at 10:33.

Midday call as of noon: "ABCD up in process of completing right here or maybe going up to 123. *Usually* down pattern will follow but today this is not guaranteed. There is some chance that 12:46 4H will pull markets down. In any case, still have to be bullish after 12:04 but alert for down pattern as well to complete." The ABCD down did follow, yet markets going going again later.

Midday call: "Watch for strong up with 1:31 3T++, 1:32 4H++, 2:23 4H++." Buying in near 1:31 was very close to the spot for the afternoon.

HOD call - 3:12 closer with new highs here; yet momentum continuing all the way to close. The 2nd 3T++ on the day from 2:54-3:12 was up 8 points in about 20 minutes. Market also surging higher into 3:36 4H++*. Anyway, even if traders exiting at 3:12 from a buy near 1:30 then hopefully happy with a 12 point gain!

Tuesday 8/28

Sent to clients Monday 8/27 8:15 pm PDT.

Tuesday might be heavy down but riding on FOMC minutes. First watch for up into about 10:30.

News: 10:00 Consumer confidence; 2:00 FOMC minutes.

In general, weaker worldwide markets anytime after 2:15 am EDT mean likely overall down continuing into later afternoon for the NY session. Otherwise, conditions are open are mixed and can go either way, yet preferring to see lifts into 9:33, 9:41 and after 9:41 into 9:54. It is a relatively good day for a consumer confidence number, so any positive data will lift markets. Markets may weaken as soon as 10:04, but watch for a strong lift into 10:24-27. Simple trendlines or moving averages will tell you who is winning out here. After 10:45 is much more likely down; additional down pressures kick in at 10:52 and 11:02. After 11:10 is crucial. This can go either way with a sharp move; be alert for reversals here. If market is already down on the day and 11:10 spikes further down, it's going to be a long ride. However, some chance that market is able to lift right here too. Either way, we'll get a dip into 11:20 and lift into 11:39.

The lunch hour is mixed yet leaning positive; then after 12:33 a general influence kicks in that makes the market is more susceptible to down for the rest of the day. For the shorter term, though, expecting up into 12:39 and up after 12:39 as well. After 12:50 is mixed and momentum may soften. Down into 1:02, up possible into 1:11. After 1:32 is again mixed due to competing influences. The conditions near 2:00 are overall negative, especially after 2:03. If market starts heading down here, get short. After 2:46 may help stabilize, but if not then next stop for a key turn is likely 3:20. After 3:20 is can go either way; expecting that the larger down influence at 3:38 will help pull the entire afternoon lower. Since this is more of a general event, watch for lift up into 3:40-46, then either way into close.

Guess-pectations: LOD 3:35-close; key lows 11:10- 11:20, 2:40. HOD 10:24-27; key highs 11:39, 12:58, 2:27.

Perhaps-path: Up on open and first half hour positive & jump up with 10:00 news. Markets coming down some but then topping 10:24-27. Down into 11:10. 11:10 key CIT, to tough to call. Down after 1:32, down after FOMC to near 3:40.

Special on day and FOMC - Easy to have erratic market patterns today. The flip side is that it is a holiday week and perhaps quiet until 2:00. According to my methods there is not a strong indication for this FOMC event; yet bias is for a down day and possibly strong.

Swing trading
Looks like Friday's high was the key top. Expecting further down on Tuesday with potential of a heavy move down. Outside chance of surprise move higher with positive FOMC minutes back up to 1500-10. If Tuesday is down as expected, Wednesday and Thursday are somewhat of a tough call. Would rather continue short side into 9/4-5 lows, yet chance of mild bounce up Wednesday and Thursday with stronger lift Friday. In other words, bearish scenario for this week is that lows come on close Thursday; bullish scenario is that lows come end of day Tuesday, then lift up into 8/31. Either way expecting further down next week with key lows coming 9/4-6. Then *mega-up* starting as early as 9/6, definitely on 9/7 and continuing on up into the following week.

Price levels
If we take Friday's high as the top, then even a 38% retrace of 8/16L to 8/24H is 1442; 50% 1429 and 61% 1416. I think 1442 is a minimum with strong chances for the lower levels; down to 76% 1400 is possible by 9/4-6.

Longer term view
Expecting 8/24 highs to hold for now and market to retrace the move from 8/16L to 8/24H down into key lows 9/5-6. As of now, expecting 8/16 lows to hold. Then massive rally kicking in at the end of that week and continuing up the following week and later September. This move will surprise everyone on upside. But October is going down!

Time EDT	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	6T-
9:30 AM	5T+
9:30 AM	3T-?			to 9:41
9:33 AM		4H+?
9:41 AM		4H+
9:41 AM	3T+			to 10:16
9:54 AM		4H++	*
10:04 AM	4T-
10:24 AM		4H++
10:27 AM		5H++	**
10:45 AM	4T--
10:52 AM	3T-			to 11:02
11:02 AM	3T--		*	to 11:38
11:10 AM	5Tm
11:20 AM		4H--	*
11:39 AM		4H+
11:52 AM		4H-
11:58 AM	3T-			to 12:39
12:00 PM	4T+?
12:18 PM		4Hm
12:33 PM	6T--
12:39 PM		4H++
12:39 PM	3T+			to 1:04
12:50 PM	4Tm
12:58 PM		4H+
1:02 PM		4H--
1:11 PM		4H++?
1:32 PM	4T-
1:34 PM		4Hm
1:35 PM	3T++			to 2:34
1:42 PM		4H--?
1:57 PM	3T-			to 2:23
2:03 PM	4TA--			to 3:09
2:27 PM		4H++	*
2:30 PM	4T-
2:40 PM		4H-
2:46 PM	4TA+?
2:50 PM		4H+
2:58 PM		4H--
2:58 PM	3T-			to 3:16
3:16 PM		4H+?
3:20 PM	5Tm
3:38 PM		6H-?
3:39 PM	3T-			to 3:57
3:40 PM		4H++	*
3:46 PM		4H++
3:51 PM		4H-

Results
Pleased with calls today.

Call - "In general, weaker worldwide markets anytime after 2:15 am EDT mean likely overall down continuing into later afternoon for the NY session."
Result - Key overnight high 2:00 am! Markets down from there confirmed expectations; also noted in early update. Bad housing headlines helping with gap down and selling pressure right from open.

Call - "Markets may weaken as soon as 10:04, but watch for a strong lift into 10:24-27."
Result - OK not a huge lift and not the HOD at 10:24, but this did lift somewhat. Under circumstances if you weren't short already, that was the place.

Call - "After 10:45 is much more likely down; additional down pressures kick in at 10:52 and 11:02."
Result - Bingo.

Call - "After 11:10 is crucial. This can go either way with a sharp move; be alert for reversals here. If market is already down on the day and 11:10 spikes further down, it's going to be a long ride. However, some chance that market is able to lift right here too. Either way, we'll get a dip into 11:20 and lift into 11:39." Dip into 11:20, mild lift but didn't make it to 11:39. Down continued as called in early update.

Call - " The lunch hour is mixed yet leaning positive."
Result - Not a huge up but the down did temporarily stop. Note the 12:00 4T+? 00 helping change the tone.

Midday call: "1:11 4H now leaning negative. In this emotional environment, probably down. 4H- or -- possible."
Result - This was a key dip.

Call - "After 1:32 is again mixed due to competing influences. The conditions near 2:00 are overall negative, especially after 2:03. If market starts heading down here, get short."
Result - Yup.Markets down after 2:03; the 4H++* listed above at 2:27 was the last decent top.

Call - "After 2:46 may help stabilize, but if not then next stop for a key turn is likely 3:20. After 3:20 is can go either way; expecting that the larger down influence at 3:38 will help pull the entire afternoon lower. Since this is more of a general event, watch for lift up into 3:40-46, then either way into close."
Result - Traders checking 3:20 got answer at 3:23-24. Hold shorts, exit near close.

Monday 8/27

Sent to clients 8/26 at 6:15 pm PDT.

Looking for V-day with market closing higher.

News: 10:00 Existing home sales

Sunday conditions positive enough to generate something that will give a gap up on Monday morning; even without something specific, markets start strong. However, watch for turn down as soon as 9:32; if market starts to weaken, then high confidence down after 9:49. Preferred morning play is gap up and surge higher, weakening after 9:32 and dip into 9:37, bounce up into 9:43, then down after 9:49. If this happens then initial surge up or 9:43 will be a key high and despite positive momentum of Friday and potentially into Monday, this could be a key short with game of catching downside retracement. If markets turn down after 9:49 and 10:00 news obliges with a bad #, then nothing much holding up until about 10:20. After 10:26 will help lift, and into 10:28 is very strong bounce up. After this passes, expecting markets to resume downward, especially after 10:43. After 10:49 is up yet countered by two smaller negative minor cycles. After 11:23 can go either way; if down, then market likely continuing down into midday lows.

The 6H- at 12:35 creates a window for a key low on the day anytime from about 12:00 to 1:00. That said, expecting lift into 12:19. Looking for down after 12:31. If so, then market likely after 2:05 likely down as well; ditto in reverse for up. Even if this plays out on downside, markets lift into 1:02. After 1:08 is up, and after 1:14 is stronger positive so rally can get going here despite being midday. Surge higher at 1:19. After 2:05 is mixed; will have clues by midday update. As mentioned, if market has moved down after 12:31 then market should head down after 2:05. Yet if 12:31 has held steady or even turned up, then after 2:05 will *lift* and markets will go even higher. After 2:33 adds to positive; watch for another lift after 3:20, especially into 3:44. This can be a very strong move. Expecting positive 3:47 to close.

Guess-pectations: LOD 12:30ish; key lows 10:13-26, 1:46; HOD 3:44-close; key highs 9:43, 10:28-43, 12:19, 1:02, 1:59?.

Perhaps-path: Up on open, 9:43 lower high, down after 9:49 and overall lower into 12:30 key low, then up to close. V-day with tradable down move but closing higher.

Swing trading
Looking for down but up by close Monday. If markets at highs at close on Monday then possible for high of week to be early Tuesday; if markets don't quite recover Monday afternoon, then key highs early Monday. Tuesday has potential for sharp turn down, especially with release of FOMC minutes. Wednesday may bounce some but overall markets are weak into 8/30; looking for low of week here. Friday 8/31 likely up but end of month factoring in. Strong down 9/4-5 which will create a key low as late as early 9/6, then *mega-up* 9/6 or 9/7 and continuing on up into the following week.

Price levels
Bigger picture is that ES cleared 61% level of last key swing of 8/8H to 8/16L and even broke 76 on Friday; possibly going for as high as 1510 yet resistance at 1504-05. See chart ES 8-27 D. Also possible to measure retracements from 7/16H.

On the 15 minute, ABCD targets point to 1490 and 1511 as key levels. See chart ES 8/27 15min ABCD 1.

On the 5 minute, ABCD targets point towards possible 123% level at 1485 as first stop but potentially up to 1491 or 161% by end of day. See chart ES 8/27 5min ABCD 2.

Longer term view
Looking for higher highs 8/27, then overall down into key lows 9/5-6. As of now, expecting 8/16 lows to hold. Then massive rally kicking in at the end of that week and continuing up the following week and later September. This move will surprise everyone on upside. But October is going down!

Time EDT	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	6Tm
9:30 AM	5T+
9:32 AM	4T-
9:37 AM		4H--
9:43 AM		4H++	*
9:49 AM		4H-
9:49 AM	5T--		**
9:58 AM		4H-?
10:06 AM		4H-
10:13 AM		4H-
10:26 AM	3T+			to 10:43
10:28 AM		4H++	*
10:43 AM	3T-			to 11:07
10:48 AM		4Hm
10:49 AM	4T+
10:56 AM	3T-			to 11:06
11:06 AM	3T--			to 11:41
11:12 AM		4H-
11:23 AM	4Tm
11:42 AM		4H-?
11:55 AM		4H-
11:59 AM		4H+
12:16 PM		4H-
12:19 PM		4H++?	*
12:20 PM	6Tm
12:31 PM	4T-?
12:35 PM		6H-
1:02 PM		4H++	*
1:08 PM	3T+			to 1:38
1:14 PM	4T+
1:19 PM		4H++
1:46 PM		4H--
1:59 PM		4H+
2:00 PM	3T-			to 2:26
2:04 PM	4TA+?			to 3:09
2:05 PM	5T-
2:31 PM		4H-
2:33 PM	3T+			to 2:55
2:35 PM		4H+
2:41 PM		4H-
2:52 PM		4H+
2:57 PM		4Hm
3:20 PM	3T+			to 3:43
3:20 PM		4H-
3:32 PM		4Hm
3:35 PM		4H--
3:44 PM		4H++	**
3:47 PM	4T++
3:54 PM		4H-

Results
Day didn't hold up but daytrading strategy was able to pull points out of more limited range. T times gave sevearl key turns.

Call - "Watch for turn down as soon as 9:32; if market starts to weaken, then high confidence down after 9:49. Preferred morning play is gap up and surge higher, weakening after 9:32 and dip into 9:37, bounce up into 9:43, then down after 9:49. If this happens then initial surge up or 9:43 will be a key high and despite positive momentum of Friday and potentially into Monday, this could be a key short with game of catching downside retracement. If markets turn down after 9:49 and 10:00 news obliges with a bad #, then nothing much holding up until about 10:20."
Result - Shorting the morning did well.

Call - "After 10:49 is up yet countered by two smaller negative minor cycles."
Result - Indexes started mildly up after 10:49 but turned down on the dot of 10:56 3T-.

Call - "After 11:23 can go either way; if down, then market likely continuing down into midday lows."
Result - This turned up with key low and ABCD down pattern completing right at T. Shorts look to exit or tighten stops, counter-trend traders considering long and looking for some other technical confirm.

Midday call - " Midday call - Upgrading 12:31 4T+? and 2:05 5T+?, 2:31 4H+." Since 12:31 and 2:05 are related in my system, seeing up at 12:31 meant a high confidence up at 2:05. Hence this statement on forecast above:"Yet if 12:31 has held steady or even turned up, then after 2:05 will *lift* and markets will go even higher."
Result - Both of these turned up. Gains didn't hold up since 1:14 4T turned down, but looking to get long again at 2:05 scored some points.

Call - "Watch for another lift after 3:20, especially into 3:44."
Result - Though gains from 2:05 rally couldn't hold, watching 3:44 for a top to short into the close worked well. I advise clients to view Ts as potential CITs and use other technical confirmations to place trade. In this case, momentum on day weakening, trend lines breaking; 3:47 4T turned sharply down as shown by the the 1 minute bar at 3:49.

Swing trading 8/20-24

Did pretty well Monday through Thursday but Friday surprised on upside.

Monday 8/20, sent to clients 8/19 and posted below 8/21: "Monday has some tricky calls and can end up either way. See the bullish and bearish scenarios outlined below."
Result - Markets about even, just a couple points higher.

Tuesday 8/21, sent to clients 8/20 and posted below 8/20: :"For Tuesday looking for rallies in the morning and again in afternoon. The day should close higher."
Result - Afternoon sold off but markets managed to close higher.

Wednesday 8/22, sent to clients 8/21 and posted below 8/23: "Wednesday is a tricky day with mixed indicators. Possible gap up and early morning looking positive, yet mid-morning may turn down and afternoon vulnerable to sell-off." And "General conditions are very positive so any information that gives traders a reason to put fears and lows behind them will be a reason to buy in. There is a decent chance of a healthy gap up."
Result - Market gapped up 10 points, but then turned down intraday until later in afternoon. Mixed scenarios given in forecast and bullish won out into close.

Thursday 8/23, sent to clients 8/22 and posted below 8/24: "Strongest up move may be overnight. Yet if global markets all in the green, NY likely starting positive too. Even though markets opening higher, preferred scenario is for intraday action is to look for shorts."
Result - Markets soaring overnight but trading short side was the best way to play Thursday. Traders holding overnight and shorting near open scored both sides.

Friday 8/24, sent to clients 8/23 and posted below 8/25: "Expecting more selling on Friday; can be a heavy down day."
Result - 2 very positive news reports turned this day strongly positive. Midday update alerted for HOD 3:13-3:30 so daytraders still did well.

Friday 8/24

Sent to clients Thursday 8/23 at 6:00 pm PDT.

Expecting more selling on Friday; can be a heavy down day.

News: 8:30 Durable goods; 10:00 New home sales

In general, any news adding to recent worries will quickly take markets lower and give a gap down. If tone is negative on open, watch for a quick dive right into 9:37; this can be a key low if the period beginning at 9:32 can take things up from there. In general, though, expecting more selling sooner or later. Preferred scenario is gap down, dive at 9:37, then market trying to hold up. Then moving on 10:00 news; the mixed hits at 10:09 and 10:11 will tell you whether the bulls or bears are winning. After 10:19 can go either way; into 10:29 should tick lower, and after 10:32 down pressure intensifies. Especially looking for a move down anytime after 10:32 to 11:03-5. Some clients may notice the repeating theme of 11:05; I don't do any techniques based solely on a time. It is just the way things are lining up in the past few days. Watch for lift and possibly strong after 10:47, but the bigger move is down into 11:03-05. If the 10:47 period has ticked up, and this 11:03 has reached a key price target, then possible to buy in here. Markets should lift the into 11:33 and even perhaps to the next period at 11:42.

After 11:42 looks down, and markets again heading lower into the lunch hour especially into 12:13-19. Looking for more down at 12:19 and the LOD in the 12:37-1:24 window. Into 1:19 may be the culmination of this move, or may help send indexes higher. Expecting some up after 1:24. If for any reason buyers are not stepping in, watch 2:05 to 3:11 for any remaining weakness. Preferred view is that markets struggle to hold up, then 2:28 also helps to stabilize or turn up. Watch for a lifts into 2:50 and 3:05, and again after 3:13. The last half hour is up for grabs and can go either way. From my view it is a battle between the 3:24 negative influence and the 3:31 positive influence. Who might want to buy in at Friday 3:30? Short sellers covering! Yet if markets turn down, steep dive easily possible.

Guess-pectations: LOD 1:20, close possible too; key lows 9:37, 11:03-05*, 12:13-19*, 3:55? HOD 10:00?; key highs 10:40, 11:42, 2:50-3:05, 3:56?

Swing trading
Looking for down on Friday, then a bounce up Monday. Yet expecting heavy move down Tuesday 8/28 to Thursday 8/30 and possibly beyond. This will take market towards the 8/16 lows.

Price levels
If Friday is sharply lower as I expect, check the ABCD chart for targets. 76% is 1452, 100% 1448, 123% at 1443.

Astrology price levels (beta) are 11 or 21-22 point moves, especially down; 1442 possible.

Longer term view
I think 8/23 morning high (really pre-market) is it for a little while. Decline continuing at the end of August and into early September. Longer term swing traders should be short. Later September surprises on upside, October going down!

Time EDT	Ts	Hs	C	Comment
9:30 AM	6Tm
9:30 AM	5T-
9:30 AM	3T+			to 9:57
9:32 AM	4T+?
9:37 AM		4H--	**
9:49 AM		4H-
10:09 AM		4H-
10:11 AM		4H+
10:19 AM	4Tm
10:23 AM		4H-
10:29 AM		4H--
10:32 AM	3T--		*	to 11:07
10:40 AM		4H+
10:44 AM		6T-		to close
10:47 AM	5T++
11:03 AM		5H--	**
11:05 AM		6H-