Moon conj Venus saved the morning, but lows broke mid-afternoon. Forecast caught HOD in advance just 2 minutes away. The LOD was 8 minutes from a 7T, and other turns on 4Ts to the minute.
ResultsMidday call - "HOD Could be in with double top, but if 1:47 gets going to upside can have higher highs especially 2:46-3:36 window and maybe right at 3.38."
Result 15 ES rally 2:46 to 3:36 and HOD at 3:36.
Perhaps-path
Watching markets after 1:00 am and especially after 8:45 am to gauge strength. Expecting down on open but lift into 9:43. Possible CIT at 9:53; if up as expected then morning more positive. Market moving on 10:00 news. Down after 10:08. If after 10:47 continues up then overall up possible all the way to 12:03. After 10:57 may continue higher. Key low 11:14, top 12:03. Down after 12:07 into 12:35. Down after 1:07, either way into 1:11. Down after 1:20 in possible LOD from 1:20 to 1:47. Strong rally after 1:47 and on good day markets will be up from here. Momentum stops after 2:32, then watch 2:45 area for another key CIT. Either way after 3:5, down after 3:44 and possibly strong into 3:48.
Trading
Up after 9:53 showed morning more positive as written, a quick few points possible there. Morning drop came with 3T- at 10:50, high 10:49, then double top close to the 12:03 event. Down after that all the way 1:47+ was good for 5+ points. 1:47 couldn't turn but after the key 7T at 2:46 tone of market completely changed. Straight up from 2:46 to 3:36. Good for 10+ points. Down 3:36 another 2-3 points.
Call - "Watch after 9:53 carefully. At that point markets will probably be waiting on 10:00 news, but if markets show signs of stabilizing or turning up then this means the entire morning may turn out more positively. Simply stated, if markets can turn up after 9:53 then some chance of up all the way to 12:03."
Result - Big up bar 9:53 and markets up from there.
Call - "Drop and possible key low at 11:14. Price movement after 11:09 gives clues on direction into 1:11. Expecting up into 12:03 and maybe strong, but watch the earlier times as written above for confirmation on direction."
Result - Key low 11:16-19, then up.
Call - "After 2:46 is another very important trend change on the day. If the day has been down, it may have some chance of improvement."
Result - LOD 2:34 within 8 minutes of the change at 7T (the most important) on the day.
Call - "Even with a stronger close, watch after 3:44 for down and sharp drop at 3:48. On a bad day, markets breaking down here."
Result - Drop started a few minutes earlier at 4T but pretty nasty down 8 points.
* * * * * * *
Monday's QT sent to clients on Sunday 11/4.
Markets at risk for heavy selling but some chance of positive day.
News: 10:00 ISM Services
First let me be clear - markets are at risk for heavy selling but there is an alternative bullish scenario so be sure to check that as well. For the Sunday evening Globex open, conditions start somewhat positive and may even continue Friday afternoon's rally especially into about midnight. After Monday at about 1:00 am, though, is a very strong change to negative. On a bad day indexes worldwide will start to slide right here. This influence runs all the way through most of Monday's regular session. Closer to session open, markets are at risk at about 8:45 am; possible that markets gap down if indexes are moving on a Monday pre-open (sometimes they do, sometimes they don't).
Expecting down on open. If markets have gapped down, then probably continuing lower but watch for up into 9:43. Watch after 9:53 carefully. At that point markets will probably be waiting on 10:00 news, but if markets show signs of stabilizing or turning up then this means the entire morning may turn out more positively. Simply stated, if markets can turn up after 9:53 then some chance of up all the way to 12:03. It's possible, and this would obviously be the bullish scenario. Repeat the process after 10:47 for direction into the 12:03 event. Expecting that the 12:03 event will help lift markets; just a matter of when it kicks in. But if after 9:53 and after 10:47 are clearly down then it will be an ugly day so just get short and stay that way. Back to the usual notes - markets moving on 10:00 news. Down after 10:08 in any scenario to about 10:26, and another dip into 10:45. Down after 10:50. The question will be if these are the dips in an uptrend or market dropping to new lows with each 3T- and 4H- event. After 10:57 should be up. If markets down at that point, watch for 50% retracement move. Drop and possible key low at 11:14. Price movement after 11:09 gives clues on direction into 1:11. Expecting up into 12:03 and maybe strong, but watch the earlier times as written above for confirmation on direction.
Lunch hour mixed with competing cycles in play but after 12:07 again at risk for down and drop into 12:35. After 12:49 may help to rally and if so then that is some up influence all the way to 1:40. Into 1:11 should move markets but can go either way. Down after 1:20 to 1:33. Possible for indexes to be teetering here. After 1:47 can be a very strong change to positive. If markets have held lows or the day is simply more positive, then explosive rally possible. If markets have been beaten up then key retrace rally here. Down pressure will stop any up move at 2:32. After 2:46 is another very important trend change on the day. If the day has been down, it may have some chance of improvement but if indexes continue to drop it can be heavy into the last hour. Even with a stronger close, watch after 3:44 for down and sharp drop at 3:48. On a bad day, markets breaking down here.
Guess-pectations
LOD 1:45; key lows 9:53? (optimistic LOD), 10:26, 10:45, 11:14, 12:20-35*, 3:48* (bearish LOD)
HOD 3:38; key highs 9:43 (bearish HOD) 10:08, 12:03*, 1:11?, 2:16.
Perhaps-path
Watching markets after 1:00 am and especially after 8:45 am to gauge strength. Expecting down on open but lift into 9:43. Possible CIT at 9:53; if up as expected then morning more positive. Market moving on 10:00 news. Down after 10:08. If after 10:47 continues up then overall up possible all the way to 12:03. After 10:57 may continue higher. Key low 11:14, top 12:03. Down after 12:07 into 12:35. Down after 1:07, either way into 1:11. Down after 1:20 in possible LOD from 1:20 to 1:47. Strong rally after 1:47 and on good day markets will be up from here. Momentum stops after 2:32, then watch 2:45 area for another key CIT. Either way after 3:5, down after 3:44 and possibly strong into 3:48.
Price levels
ES again held that key 1495-1500 area for 3rd time. If that holds, then entire week looking more positive but if it breaks there will be a stampede down and everyone knows it. Chart 1.
Depending on which highs to use for A and C, Friday's low may have been a 76% level on a major ABCD pattern. If this holds, then possible up pattern to follow. If it breaks, then watch 100% at 1478.5 and even chance of 1460 area by the end of the week. Chart 2.
Alternative pattern shows support at 1498 but 61% areas rarely mark the end of a move. This would point to a drop down to 1485 or 1462-63 area. Chart 3.
If 1495 holds and Monday turns out more positively, then major pattern for the week is shown on chart 4. This points to 1540 or even retest of last week's high near 1555 into Wednesday.
ES will have to clear 1525-1527.50 area (50% retrace of drop) to get more bulls on board. Chart 5. (1525 measures from 2nd high, 1527.50 tip to tip).
Trendlines, Support & Resistance
Major low TL on lows. If that goes, watch out below. Secondary high TL about 1540 area for Monday and resistance at 1550. Chart 6.
General trading note
50% retracements will be more common this week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. The relatively longer lasting intraday trend channels in play last week will not have quite the same staying power; there will be more swings.
Swing trading
Bullish scenario: Monday holds last week's low and closes on highs. Tuesday volatile but again moving higher into the close and big move up Wednesday to test last week's high or at least getting to 1540-1550 area. Down on Thursday and early Friday. The high of the week is likely on Wednesday.
Bearish scenario: Monday down and possibly breaking last week's low, Tuesday volatile and closing lower. Retrace rally Wednesday making some kind of 50% retracement, then another sharp drop on Thursday and into early Friday. Again the key high of week is on Wednesday. The big down days are Monday and Thursday and key lows likely Tuesday and Friday.
Longer term view
Key high 11/7, then down into 11/15. 11/21 major lower low, then expecting rally late November and into December. Chance of new ATHs and major top 12/16-21.
| Time EST | Ts | Hs | C | Comment |
| 9:30 AM | 7T-- | * | ||
| 9:30 AM | 6Tm | |||
| 9:30 AM | 5T-- | * | ||
| 9:43 AM | 4H+ | |||
| 9:53 AM | 4TAm | to 12:03 | ||
| 9:54 AM | 4H+ | |||
| 9:57 AM | 4Tm | |||
| 10:08 AM | 3T-- | * | to 10:26 | |
| 10:08 AM | 4H+ | |||
| 10:45 AM | 4H-- | |||
| 10:50 AM | 3T- | to 11:17 | ||
| 10:57 AM | 4T+? | |||
| 11:05 AM | 4H+ | |||
| 11:09 AM | 4TAm | to 1:11 | ||
| 11:12 AM | 4H+? | |||
| 11:14 AM | 4H-- | |||
| 11:39 AM | 4H+ | |||
| 11:57 AM | 4T+? | |||
| 12:03 PM | 5H+? | |||
| 12:07 PM | 3T-- | * | to 12:20 | |
| 12:14 PM | 4H- | |||
| 12:35 PM | 4H-- | |||
| 12:49 PM | 3T+? | to 1:40 | ||
| 1:07 PM | 4T-? | |||
| 1:11 PM | 5Hm | |||
| 1:17 PM | 4H- | |||
| 1:20 PM | 3T-- | to 1:33 pm | ||
| 1:22 PM | 4H-- | |||
| 1:47 PM | 5T+ | ** | ||
| 2:03 PM | 4H- | |||
| 2:16 PM | 4H+ | |||
| 2:32 PM | 3T-- | * | to 2:53 | |
| 2:33 PM | 6Tm | |||
| 2:46 PM | 7Tm | |||
| 2:46 PM | 4T+? | |||
| 2:49 PM | 4H+? | |||
| 3:36 PM | 4Tm | |||
| 3:38 PM | 4H+ | |||
| 3:44 PM | 3T-- | * | to 3:56 | |
| 3:48 PM | 4H-- | ** | ||
| 3:57 PM | 4H+ |
