Sent to clients on Saturday 5/19 at 8:00 pm.
Expecting more up on Monday with a strong move possible into 12:21+.
News: No scheduled releases.
Monday is a mix of optimism and caution, yet expecting optimism to win out overall and send markets higher. Watch for down into 9:35 and further down after 9:36. Into 9:52 can lift, then a strong surge up at 10:13. Dip at 10:24, then up. After 11:04 should be positive, and markets really take off up after 11:41. Dip at 11:47, then rocket launch up after 11:58 into 12:21. This can be the strongest move up of the day.
After 12:45 markets turn down, then after 1:03 is a key trend change on day. While slightly more positive than 12:45, the first period can go either way. Watch for up into 1:07, down into 1:32 and up again into 1:48 and a stronger move up into 2:00-02. Then likely down to 2:18+ with the strong down hit. On a good day, markets will then turn up after this completes and rally into 2:36. Expecting positive after 3:12 but down into 3:27, then stronger up into close especially near 3:45.
Guess-pectations: LOD 9:45-10:05, key high at 12:21-25 and HOD at close.
Alternative scenario: If anything surfaces involving inflation, housing, China, bad news or increases fear in general upside will be limited and markets more at risk for down. These issues are prominent the entire week, especially on Thursday and Friday.
Swing trading
The markets are close to a short term top; could even be today. Strong risk to downside, especially into Thursday 5/24 and Friday 5/25.
Longer term view
After the dip at the end of this week, expecting race higher into 6/5-8. The S&P should make new all-time highs here.
| Time EDT | Ts | Hs | C | Comment |
| 9:30 AM | 6T+? | |||
| 9:30 AM | 5T+? | |||
| 9:33 AM | 4T+ | |||
| 9:35 AM | 4H-- | * | ||
| 9:36 AM | 3T-- | to 9:56 | ||
| 9:52 AM | 4H+ | |||
| 10:05 AM | 3H- | |||
| 10:13 AM | 4H++ | * | ||
| 10:24 AM | 4H- | * | ||
| 10:30 AM | 4H+ | |||
| 10:56 AM | 4H+ | |||
| 11:02 AM | 3H+ | |||
| 11:04 AM | 4T+ | |||
| 11:23 AM | 3H- | * | ||
| 11:26 AM | 3H+ | |||
| 11:32 AM | 3H- | * | ||
| 11:41 AM | 4T++ | * | ||
| 11:47 AM | 4H- | |||
| 11:55 AM | 4H+ | |||
| 11:58 AM | 3T++ | * | to 12:28 | |
| 11:58 AM | 3H+? | |||
| 12:21 PM | 4H+ | |||
| 12:21 PM | 5H++ | * | ||
| 12:45 PM | 4T-- | * | ||
| 12:52 PM | 4H+ | |||
| 1:03 PM | 5Tm | |||
| 1:07 PM | 4H+ | * | ||
| 1:32 PM | 3H- | |||
| 1:48 PM | 4H+ | |||
| 1:53 PM | 3H+ | |||
| 1:59 PM | 4T-? | |||
| 2:00 PM | 3H+ | |||
| 2:02 PM | 4H+ | |||
| 2:04 PM | 3T- | to 2:33 | ||
| 2:14 PM | 3T+ | to 2:50 | ||
| 2:14 PM | 3H+? | |||
| 2:18 PM | 4H-- | * | ||
| 2:36 PM | 4H+ | |||
| 2:50 PM | 3T-- | to 3:00 | ||
| 2:52 PM | 4H+ | |||
| 3:12 PM | 4T+ | |||
| 3:23 PM | 3H+ | |||
| 3:27 PM | 4H-- | |||
| 3:44 PM | 3H+ | * | ||
| 3:45 PM | 5H+ | * | ||
| 3:59 PM | 4H+ | * |
Results
Outlook: Morning played out mostly to expectations; afternoon had a quick selloff after new highs and so took away the end of day highs. Still, looking for top today and got it.
Call - "Then a strong surge up at 10:13."
Result - This stopped short by 2 minutes but at that point was a strong up move.
Call - "Dip at 10:24, then up."
Result - Swing low 10:27, then up!
Morning call to clients upgraded 3H- at 11:32 to 4H-.
Result - Down to 11:31.
Call - "Markets really take off up after 11:41. Dip at 11:47, then rocket launch up after 11:58 into 12:21. This can be the strongest move up of the day."
Result - Bingo!
Call - While the 4H-- at 2:18 didn't have effect and the market went higher into the 4H+ at 2:52, the 3T-- kicked in at 3:00 and started a down move that didn't complete until the 4H-- at 3:27.
Result - Actual LOD 3:29!
