QuickTrader is a tool to time intraday and swing moves in the S&P, Dow or Nasdaq futures, options or indexes. It is completely unique because the times are not based on any other technical indicators that most people follow, and quite often will predict market moves exact to the minute. Here are the basics on how to use it.
First, here is an outline of the structure which is consistent from day to day. The basic summary of expectations for the day is at the top. This is followed by a "Trading" section which some cues on things to watch for in price action. This is followed by the major news releases for the day, then "Movement" contains a description of market action. "Guess-pectations" lists the possible LOD (low of day) and HOD (high of day) as well as other key lows and highs. Under this is a section on Price levels which comments on charts (usually daily SPX, NDX and hourly ES). Then follows the swing outlook (1-2 weeks) and longer term view (2 weeks+). The full list of T and H times is attached as a spreadsheet.
Here are some ideas on how to incorporate the forecast into your trading. The best trading for both clients and myself comes by combining the forecast with price triggers. In other words, trade the price using the forecast and not the other way around. Do not blindly trade the forecast without paying attention to price. That said, when the forecast and price agree (which it often does) then you will have many very high confidence trade set-ups. Use other technical or price level tools you like to trigger your entries and exits.How you use QuickTrader will depend on your trading style. Some clients are using the shorter time indicators to scalp, others are daytrading the ES 2-5+ times a day, others are holding longer or daytrading options, and others just use the forecast to swing trade options holding a few days to help get direction on the market and nail entries and exits.
By using some trading basics like trendlines, macd, Fibonacci retracements and projections and other technical tools in conjunction with the forecast, on many days you will be able to pull 5-20 ES points out of the market. The cost of the forecast is 2-3 points a month which is a typical stop loss on just one trade. Often you will be above to cover the cost of 3 months of forecasts in one trading day. That said, anyone who is playing the trading game with real money needs to know what they are doing. If you are new to trading, this tool can help but you need some trading basics, technical skills and overall familiarity with how the markets work before jumping in. I strongly suggest paper trading until you are executing with confidence.
Contents
Top-line summary - Important for overall direction. Keep in mind that this (along with everything else) is written many hours before market opens, so if price or news is proving a different scenario then be willing to adjust.
Trading - Notes on overall price action such as range, certain Fib levels to watch and other techniques that will be helpful to catch the biggermoves.
News - These are the basic news reports that are on the Briefing economic calendar that can often move the market. I do not list earnings reports, and of course many other kinds of news can affect indexes. These are simply the scheduled reports that a lot of investors and traders watch.
Movement - This is an outline of how I expect the market will move that day. This is much same information as listed in the Ts and Hs but in narrative form, but here trying to select the more important moves. Keep in mind that traders and especially Insight clients are not necessarily going long or or short on each move. It is information that puts the price movement in a certain perspective that helps inform price action later that day to confirm other trade set-ups. In addition to helping point direction on that trading day, the smaller movements help build the forecast for the next day, and then also inform the swing and long term views as well.
Guess-pectations - Picks for LOD (low of day) and key lows and HOD (high of day) and key highs. While it is important to watch these times (especially the LOD and HOD), again do not adhere to them too rigidly. These are 'guesses' - this means you cannot simply buy the LOD and sell the HOD without watching price charts. However, if market is setting a new high at the HOD time (or other key high time) and your other price or technical tools are showing a top, then you have a reliable signal. Ditto for the LOD and lows.
Price levels - Comments on charts and prices, usually starting with SPX daily, NDX daily, then ES hourly and sometimes the smaller timeframes. Includes support and resistance, generally on the ES.
Swing trading & Long term view - Helpful for context for daytraders and important for options and index trading.
Times (in attached spreadsheet) - This section is the essence of my work. This system condenses the many energetic factors that I consider each day into a list of times that any trader can follow. Here is more information on how to use the Ts and Hs.
The time is always Eastern time (daylight savings when applicable) - in other words, current time in NY.
T means trend. This is a period of time with a beginning and an end, just like a quarter of a basketball game. The time with the T refers to when the period starts. The T will affect the market until the next T of equal number begins. These are very useful because often the direction indicated plays out in the market. I recommend watching price action at the start of each T, especially the 4s and 5s. If price confirms the direction shown on the forecast, then you can often consider that direction to be 'in play' until the next T. This does not necessarily mean that markets will go straight up or down; but as long as that T period is positive (or negative), then there will be energetic support (or down pressure) to take prices higher (or lower). If the direction is *'d or doubled (like ++ or --) then it is even more important to watch for a stronger move.
After the time, the next column contains the 8T, 7Ts, 6Ts, 5Ts, 4Ts and 4TAs. Then a separate column contains the 3Ts.
The 8T is a daily directional indicator which means does the day move up or down. It works 70-80% of the time; it doesn't work when there is extreme news either good or bad. Sometimes there are even larger cycles taking prominence and if so will mention this in the notes.
7Ts are the next largest and most important cycle for daytrading. When there is a 7T during session (frequently not), often there is a key price CIT within 15 minutes of either side. If there doesn't happen to be a key price high or low, then frequently there is a change in the pattern of the markets such as going from wide range to tight, or simply that price doesn't fall below the level it was at the start of the 7T. These are most useful for catching the larger moves on the day. When the 8T and 7T agree (both up or both down) then very often the markets trend in that direction. When they are mixed or conflicting the price will often do likewise in some way or another.
6Ts are important and sometimes move markets when there is a change during session, but I usually emphasize the 7s and 5s for turns. If you are wondering why this is, just think of chess. The name of the game is to capture the king, but in reality the queen runs the show.
5Ts are important to watch for all traders. There will always be at least one 5T listed after 9:30 and sometimes 2 for each trading day. Watch for key changes of tone in the market at the 5Ts. I often will make a point to check and often re-draw trendlines at that point.
4Ts come within the 5T cycle. The combination of 4Ts and 5Ts are what allows me to forecast not just key times of possible turns, but quite often the *direction* of price movement during the day.
4TAs are 'additional Ts' which are supplementary to the main cycle of 4 and 5Ts. I label them separately to help spot market turns and get accuracy on direction. 4TAs are usually connected to the 5As which are described below.
3Ts are listed in a separate column because of their extremely short duration. 3Ts are useful for entries and exits, for monitoring the overall flow of the day, and for Insight clients help confirm direction in 4T and 5Ts, and even inform direction for the day in addition to swing and long term trading. Going back to the chess analogy, the 3Ts are the pawns. Of course our focus is on the King, Queen, rooks, bishops and knights, but the pawns are there too an influence the game.
5A means Aspect. Aspects create a window of time for a move between the start of the 4TA and the 5A (the reason I label them as A's is to see the connection between these times). This period beginning at the first 4TA and often culminating at the 5As can dominate market action and often will take priority over the usual cycle of 4Ts. If the sheet has a 5A++/--**, in other words, double direction ++/-- and double strength, this is my way of telling you that this move dominates the day. Also, at certain times the move is more likely to conclude before the actual 5A and at others it is more likely to go right up into the time of the 5A and beyond. Watch for this information in the notes.
H means hit. Unlike the Ts that all have an energetic effect for a period of time, this is an effect into and culminating at the specified time. While sometimes the very strong Hs will have just a few minutes of spillover, generally speaking these move the market into that particular time and then the energetic effect is over. The stronger Hs (4H++/--*s) can create more important lows and highs, and the regular 4H+/-s are the smaller moves throughout the day. Please keep in mind that traders are usually not trying to catch each of these but can be useful on entries and exits. The 4Hs also give information to Insight clients regarding direction for larger moves.
C means confidence. If a cycle has a statistically higher likelihood of moving the market in a certain direction, then I mark this time with a *. It is also a type of strength indicator. Basically I am trying to select the most important moves. * means 'watch this' and ** means watch this for a strong move!
+ up, ++ strong up
- down, -- strong down
m means mixed, can go either way
? means not sure
* either stronger effect or more confident or both
** very strong and/or very confident, dominating markets
Example:
9:30 8T+
9:30 7T-
9:30 5T-
9:47 4T++
9:53 4H-
10:07 3T+
10:23 5T-
The translation of this would be: expecting daily direction positive, but momentum limited by 7T until that cycle changes. Expecting down on open but strong change to positive after 9:47. Dip at 9:53 should be higher low if 9:47 has already kicked in. Additional up after 10:07, then key change to negative after 10:23. Strategies here would be to short after open if price action confirms a move down and watch to cover near 9:47, then reverse and go long. Remember that all trades are taken on price action triggers!
Trading
There are several ways to use this tool depending on the type of trader. A daytrader can get 2-5 trades per day or even more with the help of the forecast, while a swing options trader can use it for entries and exits. As mentioned above, the most important thing is to combine the forecast with other indicators and trade when they line up.
In addition to the high confidence and stronger moves shown by the ++ -- or * **, watch anytime a succession of + Ts changes to negative, or the first + T after a few negative ones.
Also watch for line-ups of +Hs coming within +Ts, or -Hs in -Ts. These will more likely give one directional moves. When +Hs come in context of a -T, then the market is more likely mixed and vice versa.
As a trader, I am watching the indicators on charts of various time-frames. I use 1 minute and 5 minute charts for day trading, and 5-15 minute charts for options trading (intraday day or sometimes overnight), then the hourly and daily charts for index ETF positions.
Abbreviations common in forecasts
L low
H high
LOD Low of day
HOD High of day
ID Intraday
TL Trendline
R Retracement
P Projection
ABCD Projection pattern
ES S&P Futures contract
23 38 50 61 76 Standard Fib level retracements
If you have any additional questions and comments please contact me at jpearl12 (at) gmail.com.
Best of success to you and your trading!
cheers,
J Pearl
Disclaimer: Use QuickTrader at your own discretion. Jonathan Pearl is not liable under any circumstances for any trading or investment decisions based on the information provided.
